Deutsche Bank Research

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday. Deutsche Bank's Chief US Economist Matthew Luzzetti breaks down what the Fed's strategy might look like. #DeutscheBank #dbresearch #economy

🗨️ “The exchange of one currency for another appears to be the simplest transaction, yet the FX market has transformed into a highly sophisticated, competitive, and complex ecosystem.” The FX market is evolving at an unprecedented pace – offering benefits like lower costs and improved liquidity, but also challenges such as market fragmentation and potential systemic risks. Understanding this transformation is key to staying ahead. FX research analyst Rohini Grover, Ph.D. and Global Head of FX Research George Saravelos have published a white paper exploring the changing FX landscape, the hurdles ahead, and what the future holds. 💡 For more key insights from our experts, download the report “The brilliant world of FX” here: 👉 https://lnkd.in/epQ9f4dv #FX #Forex #DeutscheBank #MarketInsights #dbresearch

🏡 Die zurückliegenden Jahre und Monate waren herausfordernd für die Immobilienbranche. Doch Jochen Moebert bleibt seiner im November aufgestellten These treu und sieht für 2025 die Trendwende gekommen: „Wir haben eine Reihe von Indikatoren, die zeigen, dass sich der Bau berappelt“, berichtet der Volkswirt und Wohnimmobilienexperte von Deutsche Bank Research im neuen Podzept. Verschiedene wirtschaftliche Signale deuteten darauf hin, dass die anhaltende Baurezession in der zweiten Jahreshälfte zum Ende komme. Dazu hätten auch das Wachstumschancengesetz der ehemaligen Ampelkoalition und die Förderung des sozialen Wohnraums beigetragen. Sollte das am Dienstag vom Bundestag mit Zweidrittelmehrheit verabschiedete Sondervermögen für Infrastruktur auch die Hürde Bundesrat nehmen, könnte dies für die Bauindustrie „sehr große Impulse setzen“, sagt Möbert. „Keine Frage, 500 Milliarden, das ist ein Wort!“ Bis das Paket seine volle Investitionswirkung dank erteilter Baugenehmigungen entfalte, dürfte es allerdings noch ein wenig dauern. Zugleich dämpften hohe Immobilienpreise und die zuletzt bis auf 4 Prozent gestiegenen Bauzinsen die Nachfrage seitens privater Häuslebauer, so Möbert, der immerhin nicht mit noch weiter steigenden Bauzinsen rechnet. Außerdem im neuen Podzept: Wo in Deutschland ist Wohnen derzeit noch erschwinglich? Und welche Hoffnungen knüpft Möbert an den technologischen Fortschritt beim Bauen – Stichwort „Smart Home“? 🎧 Podzept am besten einfach aufs Smartphone abonnieren: https://lnkd.in/eDbTHD8j 📺 Podzept gibts nun auch auf YouTube. Den Link finden Sie im ersten Kommentar. #Wohnimmobilien #dbresearch Deutsche Bank

💡 Introducing the new Deutsche Bank Research Institute! 🌍 Navigating today’s complex and rapidly evolving global landscape can be tricky. Our new public research website helps make sense of it with a European perspective on the long-term themes driving the global economy. Drawing on Deutsche Bank’s extensive expertise and research capabilities, we connect the world to Europe and Europe to the world with expert analysis across geopolitics, macroeconomics, technology, and the corporate landscape. The Institute is chaired by David Folkerts-Landau, with Pamela Finelli Feddeler and Jim Reid as co-heads. Adrian Cox will lead the Institute day-to-day as its Executive Director. The Deutsche Bank Research Institute will complement our existing research offering, which continues to be available exclusively to clients. ▶️ Sign up today to receive new content in real time: https://lnkd.in/ePqzgrFF #dbresearch

China’s 5% growth plan: Consumption Takes the Lead 🚀 China's recent "Two Sessions" meeting revealed a clear shift in economic strategy, with domestic consumption taking center stage. Yi Xiong, Deutsche Bank's Chief Economist for China, and Jessie Xu our Lead China Consumer Discretionary Analyst, highlighted their key takeaways. The government has set a 5% GDP growth target for 2025, backed by an expansionary fiscal policy, explained Xiong, who projects China's government spending growth to surge to 7% in 2025, significantly boosting the fiscal multiplier effect and potentially increasing the country's nominal GDP growth by around two percentage points. 📈 “We are encouraged by the new 2% target on consumer inflation which likely signals a formal commitment to reflation”, he added. To achieve the growth target, a substantial CNY 300 billion bond will fuel a consumer goods "trade-in" program, doubling 2024's budget. This program and provincial subsidies are expected to boost sales across a broader range of consumer goods categories and release further upside potential. "We think China's eCommerce sector will benefit as a proxy of China's consumption," notes Xu, highlighting attractive investment opportunities presented by some of the leading companies in China’s consumer and eCommerce sectors. #ChinaEconomy #ConsumerSpending #ChinaInsights

The CPI report showed that prices rose 2.8% in the past year. Deutsche Bank's Senior US Economist Brett Ryan sat down with Claire Rodgers to share what this means for the overall economy. #DeutscheBank #dbresearch #economy

“Much of the recent price action has been driven by speculation and wishful thinking… High volatility in crypto markets is likely to continue.” Marion Laboure, senior strategist at Deutsche Bank Research appeared on Bloomberg this morning to discuss how President Trump's Crypto Reserve Executive Order is affecting the price of Bitcoin and the outlook for crypto. Bitcoin is down around 25% since January of this year and the idea that it could be a safe haven in times of geopolitical uncertainty and a hedge against inflation no longer seems to be the case. Marion believes a Bitcoin rebound will depend on regulatory clarity, institutional investment and a calming of market sentiment. 📺 Watch the full interview with key takeaways on the Crypto Strategic Reserve plan here (starts at 32:34): https://lnkd.in/eqEXFpvT #dbresearch #cryptocurrencies #Bitcoin

„Whatever it takes“ „Das ist ein Signal an die Märkte, an das Ausland – und ein Wendepunkt in der deutschen Politik. Ein Signal, wieder in Deutschland zu investieren!“ Robin Winkler, unser Chefvolkswirt für Deutschland, sprach heute mit Sabrina Marggraf in der ntv Telebörse über das von Union und SPD geplante Finanzpaket für Verteidigung und Infrastruktur. 📺 Sehen Sie das ganze Interview hier: https://lnkd.in/eQVkiW7v #dbresearch #Finanzpaket #Wirtschaft #Deutschland ntvNachrichten

China is the world’s largest producer of goods, with exports moving through supply chains across countries to meet centers of consumption in the US and West more broadly. 🌎 However, as tariffs rise and barriers to the absorption of imports goes up in the US, the question of where Chinese goods end up becomes more pressing. We see three potential paths 🛣️. First, increased Chinese consumption absorbs a greater share of domestic production. Second, China pivots its exports towards the Global South. Third, China shifts production to other countries where they are consumed. The CNY's long-term trajectory will be a key factor in determining which path unfolds. 📈 CNY appreciation would increase the probability of the first or third scenario playing out, while CNY depreciation would increase the likelihood of the second outcome. The answer to where Chinese goods end up could have a significant impact on the world: from inflation to employment, long-term development, and on global markets across FX and rates. 📊 There could be particularly large implications for emerging markets. Deutsche Bank Research subscribers can read the full report on this theme here: http://deu.ba/6045fqPic Mallika Sachdeva Yi Xiong #GlobalTrade #EmergingMarkets #dbresearch

“I don't think there has been enough of an adaptation to the new normal around European defence spending. That could provide a huge fiscal impulse.” Henry Allen, macro strategist at Deutsche Bank Research joined the Bloomberg team on Opening Trade this morning to discuss the effects of higher defence spending in Europe, US tariffs, inflation, and why he remains positive there won't be a US recession. 📺 Watch the full interview here – starting at 51:22: https://lnkd.in/efTeYm8K Guy Johnson, Anna Edwards, Lizzy Burden #dbresearch