Vertis Environmental Finance

🎧 CARBON TRADING CHRONICLES S2 E2 In this episode, we explore the EU ETS and UK ETS at a pivotal moment, where market participants are divided over the future direction of prices. With some analysts predicting a drop to €50, and others expecting a long-term bullish outlook, we examine whether these forecasts are grounded in reality or part of a carbon market fairytale. Are we witnessing a fundamental shift, or will the market stabilise? Tune in for latest insights from Riham Wahba and Stefan Feuchtinger. 💚 Spotify: https://lnkd.in/ew8bd5_N   💜 Apple podcast: https://lnkd.in/eaKxXEQb #CarbonTradingChronicles #EUets #UKets #CarbonTrading

Hard to believe there could be another bullish week for EUAs after a 7.5% increase last week...unless of course...war was declared (For anyone who does not get it, you are probably not a futurama geek: https://lnkd.in/eAG-Pw8N) Last week's bull run was probably a few factors at once: 1. Gas and Power 2. Industrial buying 3. Funds stepping out of short positions after bottom formed 4. CTAs exacerbated the boost 5. Some positive spreads for lignite down the curve There was also good options movement but probably not enough to create a gamma squeeze. So that leaves the question, are we in a new (old) regime of €65-€72 or are we at the top of the €60-66 channel? 1. Unlikely to see another squeeze on the energy complex unless ...there was an immediate escalation in the middle east. Crude significantly being down today, market does not seem that worried about that 2. Industrials are unlikely to keep buying this in large quantities above the 200DMA (currently around €66) 3. Short funds likely to reopen their positions 4. CTAs stopped riding the trend, probably waiting to hop on the bear train soon 5. Lignite spreads won't continue to improve unless power pushes further up (which is again partly dependent on TTF which is in turn partly dependent on the middle east) Long story short: the bears are coming for you. Unless of course...war was declared. No financial advice, do your own research :) #euets #eua Vertis Environmental Finance

💡 CBAM UPDATE The European Commission has just published an updated Q&A on #CBAM, providing further guidance on reporting (highlighted in green). Make sure you are up to date ahead of the definitive regime from 2026. #CarbonEmissions #EUCBAM #EUAs #TradeCompliance

We were delighted to host the second Women In Carbon (WiC) Brussels event last week. The programme started with our colleagues Riham Wahba and Anne de Boer who provided an overview of their journey as carbon trader and analyst (including a note of gratitude to their male colleagues), setting the stage for peer learning and discussions. We then continued with a world cafe around both carbon and women empowerment topics. By creating opportunities for deeper conversations and stronger ties, we can only support the WiC initiative and its goal of facilitating more impactful collaborations. Thank you all for attending, we already look forward to the next event! And a special thanks to the wonderful women leading the Brussels chapter: Marie-Louise Risoud, Marie-Christine Johannes, Julia Michalak, Ellen De Vocht, and Svea Nyberg! #Womenincarbon #Carbonmarkets #networking #LifeatVertis

Interested in updating you EU ETS compliance strategy? Join Frederic Bouthillier during his panel discussion at the Tanker Shipping & Trade Conference 2024! https://lnkd.in/e8seAvZc Riviera Maritime Media Ltd Craig Jallal #tankershipping #EUets #emissionsreduction #shippingexecutives #shippingfinance

Judging by the nervosity of the market, the UK ETS is very close to getting its 2.0 facelift, including its own MSR (SAM) and potentially an update to the Auction reserve price (ARP). Outset: The market is bearish for years to come without it (and here we disagree with most other analysts out there, who either expect strong power or industry emissions, we think neither is likely). Highest net long positions by funds this year compared to past years means expectations are bullish, a high threshold in order for the market not to be disappointed. So what does the market likely price in? We don't know for sure of course, but we think this: 50-60m upper threshold of the SAM, start in 2026 modest increase in ARP Any threshold higher than that is probably really bearish. Also if there is a delay to 2027 (like we have seen for the benchmark updates... foreshadowing?..), that would likely be bearish. The amount of the downside is of course limited by the ARP change to some extent but the question would be how much of the current length is really long term money vs how much of that money needs to show returns this year.. The bear case: 70m, 2027 start and no ARP change is pretty much the worst case scenario. Who knows, but that could push prices as low as the mid-20 pounds. How likely? Not very likely, more likely that you'd see some middle ground, ie. 50m SAM but 2027 start (still bearish) or ARP increased by a few pounds and a 60m threshold.. The bull case: 40m SAM should definitely be bullish...more importantly though, the big underdog is the ARP , as the whole market seems to focus on the SAM only. If the ARP is meaningfully increased, say the lower £30s and maybe even the California model is chosen, where it is increased yearly by 5% + inflation, then you have a great bull story. The bottom would then not even be the actual level but instead the future level, discounted downward with the risk-free rate and perhaps a few pounds on top considering the volatility. That would be strongly bullish. Guess the question comes down to what is the intent of the government. It's anyone's guess, really.... Vertis Environmental Finance #EUA #UKETS

📑 European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) 𝐜𝐚𝐫𝐛𝐨𝐧 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 - The 2024 analysis confirms that the EU ETS primary market remains significantly concentrated this year, with the majority of EU ETS operators preferring to source allowances from financial intermediaries. - ESMA's analysis of the secondary markets also reiterates that non-financial sector firms hold long positions for compliance purposes, while banks and investment firms hold short positions. - Given this structure, the majority of transactions are conducted by banks or investment firms using standardised on-exchange futures. - Financial sector trading in derivatives is primarily undertaken by firms based in the US and UK. This highlights the importance for compliant entities to monitor the market closely and seek guidance from experts, enabling them to navigate this dynamic and fast-evolving market. Let's connect! #CarbonMarkets #EUets #EUAs #CarbonTrading

👩💻 CALLING ALL WOMEN IN THE CARBON SECTOR Are you a woman driving change in the carbon markets? Looking to connect with like-minded professionals shaping the future of this dynamic sector? We're excited to invite you to the Women In Carbon networking event we will host on 17 October at Comet Meetings in Brussels. This isn't your typical networking session as it will include a World Café designed to spark impactful conversations and actionable ideas. Together, we’ll explore the challenges, opportunities, and innovations driving the carbon markets today, with insights from industry insiders. If you’re ready to be part of the conversation shaping the future of the sector, RSVP today and join us on 17 October! 👉 https://lnkd.in/g8eVcdMc #WomenInCarbon #CarbonMarkets #LifeatVertis #ClimateAction

🚨 UK ETS update: 𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗴𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀' 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗽𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘆🚨 In response to the #UKETS market authority's consultation on extending the first allocation period into 2026 - meaning no anticipated benchmark cuts - the benchmark #UKAs contract plummeted to test its late-April lows. Surprisingly, the Commitment of Traders report showed both long and short positions moving in the same direction, but with different levels of intensity. The report revealed a doubling of total short UKA positions, while long positions saw only a slight uptick of +2.5mn UKAs (shorts) vs. +0.6mn UKAs (longs), pushing the net long holdings back to end-of-August levels.

- NEWS - With the UK closing its last coal-fired power station on 30 September, more than a third of the 38 OECD countries have now phased out coal power. 🚫 Costa Rica, Estonia and Lithuania never had coal power plants 🅾️ 11 countries have already closed all their plants: Iceland, Switzerland, Luxembourg, Latvia, Belgium, Sweden and Austria, Portugal, Norway, and Slovakia. 🔴 3/4 of OECD members are expected to phase out coal power by 2030, aligning with the Paris Agreement. ✅ The share of renewable energy is rising. According to International Energy Agency (IEA), renewables will generate 33.5% of global electricity this year and could account for 41.6% by 2028. Read more on Euronews by Rosie Frost: https://lnkd.in/gHd6fNaF #climateaction #carbonemissions