Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM)

In my latest column for The Hindu, I analyse the work of this year’s Economics Nobel laureates, Daron Acemoğlu, Simon Johnson, and James Robinson (AJR), whose research on institutions as drivers of economic growth has set a new analytical standard. However, while AJR’s model is compelling, it exhibits a distinctly Eurocentric lens, often positioning Western institutional forms as universally optimal. Scholars like Yuen Yuen Ang challenge this, highlighting cases such as China, where economic growth has been achieved through "directed improvisation"—an iterative, context-driven approach. Ang’s critique suggests that institutional adaptability and endogenous evolution may be as crucial as AJR’s "inclusive institutions" for sustained growth. AJR’s Nobel is well-deserved, but their Eurocentric framework falls short of representing the Global South.

In my column for the Hindu businessline, I write that the current tax system is too focused on short-term revenue goals, which often undermines long-term fiscal health. What we really need is an independent Tax Policy Unit to bring in a long-term perspective and drive meaningful reforms. An independent unit would help shift the focus to data-driven decisions that support India’s long-term economic goals.

In our column for the Herald Insight Collection and The Korea Herald, Dr. Bibek Debroy and I talk about India's growth story and where it's headed. As the world gets closer to the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals deadline, India is on track to hit a $5 trillion GDP and become the third-largest economy by 2029. While many countries are struggling to meet their targets, India has done relatively better, though there's still a lot of work to do. Economic growth here is deeply linked to progress in social sectors, and with expected growth rates between 6% and 8%, the role of governance at both the union and state levels is crucial. But it's just as important to make sure that this growth is inclusive, benefiting everyone, especially those at the bottom of the pyramid. India, now the world’s most populous country with over 1.4 billion people, has a huge role to play globally. Any improvement in living standards here will ripple across the world, influencing poverty reduction, health, and income inequality. Recent data from the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey shows that living standards have risen significantly, and the National Multidimensional Poverty Index reports a sharp drop in poverty. Government initiatives like the JAM Trinity and Digital Public Infrastructure have driven financial inclusion and cut poverty rates. With a young workforce driving economic development, India's progress in areas like health, education, and infrastructure will not only shape its own future but will have a big impact on the global stage too. Follow Herald Insight Collection for more such essays. SangHyun Choi | Sungwon Hong

In my latest column for The Hindu businessline, I examine the epistemological shift AI is driving in scientific research. Advanced systems like Google DeepMind and BioNTech’s Laila are now integral to hypothesis generation, predictive modeling, and data analysis, transforming the traditional scientific method. However, this raises fundamental questions: Can AI-generated outputs, which rely heavily on inductive reasoning and statistical correlations, be equated with human-derived scientific understanding? While AI can process data at an unprecedented scale, its lack of intentionality and conceptual comprehension challenges the authenticity of its contributions to scientific inquiry. Key concerns such as explainability, transparency, and reproducibility—cornerstones of reliable scientific knowledge—are increasingly difficult to uphold with AI’s “black box” models. Moreover, biases inherent in training data and algorithmic design exacerbate the epistemic risks associated with over-reliance on AI systems. As AI continues to play a more active role, it is essential to critically examine the balance between predictive accuracy and theoretical depth to ensure it complements, rather than undermines, the pursuit of scientific knowledge.

In my column for News18 India, I discuss how path dependency has shaped India's agricultural policies, particularly the entrenched focus on wheat and rice production, despite changing consumption patterns. Drawing from the 2023-24 Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) analyzed by the EAC-PM Working Paper, food expenditure has dropped below 50% of household consumption for the first time, with significant declines in cereal spending—driven by free grain schemes—and rising consumption of higher-value foods such as fruits, vegetables, and proteins. This shift calls for recalibrating agricultural policies, moving public support from cereal-centric models to more diversified cropping systems that align with evolving consumer demand.

In the research paper titled "Impact of state-level labour law reforms in India: an empirical analysis", authored by Dr Bibek Debroy, Dr Supriyo De, Chirag Dudani, Jayasimha K R, and myself, we provide a rigorous empirical evaluation of the consequences of labour law reforms across Indian states from 2000–2018. This analysis presents critical insights into the reforms' influence on employment, industrial growth, and investment dynamics. The research delineates several pivotal findings: States that adopted flexible labour laws demonstrated significant enhancement in the growth of large industrial units and sustainable employment opportunities. Conversely, in states adhering to stringent labour regulations, there was a marked increase in the hiring of contract workers, particularly evident in firms employing between 301–500 workers. Moreover, states like Rajasthan, which pioneered additional reforms in 2014, exhibited substantial improvements in employment rates, capital investment, and overall economic output. Our study emphasizes that labour law reforms, when coupled with robust infrastructure, a reduction in industrial disputes, low crime rates, and superior educational opportunities, lead to considerable employment creation.

In our column for The Economic Times, Dr Bibek Debroy & I argue that while competitive federalism has traditionally focused on attracting FDI and investments, as seen with states like Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka competing for companies like Foxconn, sustainable growth hinges on human capital development. Early childhood education (ECE) is a crucial yet often overlooked area. Research consistently shows that structured ECE provides lasting cognitive and socio-economic benefits. However, India's current programs, such as the ICDS, face challenges with quality and overburdened Anganwadi workers. States like Uttar Pradesh are taking the lead by recruiting specialized educators to improve ECE, a model that should be emulated across India to ensure that every child has the best start in life.

In my column for The New Indian Express, I write: The Indian IT sector’s rise in the late 1990s and early 2000s is a remarkable case study in the role of ex-ante regulations—or rather, their absence. As global regulators grappled with IT governance, Indian policymakers stayed largely disengaged, creating a regulatory vacuum that enabled innovation to flourish, free from red tape. However, this lack of regulation isn’t a one-size-fits-all solution. In sectors like AI, the absence of robust regulatory frameworks can lead to regulatory capture, where dominant firms exploit the system, stifling competition and amplifying societal risks. Models like Acemoglu and Restrepo’s (2020) highlight how unchecked AI can exacerbate inequality and displace workers. This column examines how nations like the US, EU, China, and others are responding to AI risks and what lessons India can draw as it shapes its own AI regulatory ecosystem. More to come in my next column! 

Europe's climate hypocrisy is glaring. Despite all the green talk, the EU's energy import dependency hit a 30-year high in 2022. Germany, the self-proclaimed leader in cutting fossil fuel reliance, ditched nuclear energy only to rely more on fossil fuels. A recent study reveals that Germany's costly move away from nuclear slashed potential emissions cuts by 73%—all because of irrational fear, not logic. It's time to stop pandering to baseless fears and embrace nuclear energy as the safest, cleanest, and most reliable power source we have. My column in Gulf News.

In our recent column for The Economic Times, Dr Bibek Debroy and I highlight a significant shift in fiscal policy, as announced by the Finance Minister in her budget speech: from 2026-27 onwards, India will aim to ensure that the fiscal deficit keeps Central Government debt on a downward trajectory as a percentage of GDP. This marks a departure from the traditional obsession with just the deficit numbers, which can be dangerously misleading. Focusing solely on fiscal deficits often leads to procyclical policies that amplify economic fluctuations, rather than stabilizing them. The debt-to-GDP ratio offers a more reliable measure of fiscal health, capturing the cumulative effect of fiscal decisions over time and providing a more comprehensive picture of a country’s economic performance.