BMI Country Risk & Industry Analysis

We have revised our US growth forecasts for 2025, lowering real GDP growth to 1.9% due to trade-related uncertainties and potential tariff impacts. Inflation is expected to end the year at 2.7%, slightly above previous forecasts. We explore three scenarios: an 'upside surprise,' 'stagflation light,' and a 'mini recession,' with recession risks estimated at 20-30%. Read the full article: https://ow.ly/KKli50VqcFs #ConnectedThinking #USEconomy

Tune into this month’s #BestofBMI edition, highlighting AI advancements and their anticipated impact on income and employment across various developed markets, particularly those with high job exposure to AI. We also explore how Trump tariffs could potentially disrupt technology investments, delaying the completion of upcoming US AI Infrastructure projects. Additionally, we provide insights into Sub-Saharan Africa’s evolving commodities and infrastructure landscape, poised to positively shape its economy, as well as substantial investments in power grids in the MENA region to support the transition from centralized power generation to distributed renewable energy sources. To stay ahead with the latest political, economic, and industry insights, subscribe now to receive the next edition. #ConnectedThinking #Economics #CountryRisk

The ECB approved UniCredit's move to increase its stake in Commerzbank to 29.9% on March 14, 2025, setting the stage for a potential full merger. This would be the largest cross-border bank merger in Europe since the global financial crisis, promising positive changes in Germany's fragmented banking sector. Read the full article: https://ow.ly/yKQK50VqcEF #ConnectedThinking #Banking #Mergers

An insightful session today at the Fitch Singapore office where we hosted an intimate group to discuss some of the most pressing global issues. Cedric Chehab, Ross Schaap, Darren Tay and Zerlina Zeng, CFA presented their views and led a discussion on the latest global macro geopolitics themes, focusing on tariff views, growth and recession risks, monetary policy, as well as the geopolitics. A huge thank you to all who joined and participated.   If you are interested to catch up on these insights, feel free to reach out to us.  https://lnkd.in/gcPrjvix #ConnectedThinking #MonetaryPolicy #EmergingMarkets #GeopoliticalRisk

The Critical Medicines Act aims to bolster EU drug supply security by enhancing manufacturing and diversifying partnerships. This strategic initiative seeks to ensure the availability and secure supply of essential medicines within the EU. Read the full article: https://ow.ly/t2O150Vla28 #ConnectedThinking #Pharmaceuticals #EUHealthcare

Join Cedric Chehab as he gives insight into the key forecasts and themes shaping 2025. Cedric will explore #trade policy, monetary policy, emerging market fundamentals, and political risks to watch. Topics Covered: • Key themes shaping the outlook for the next 12-18 months • Economic forecasts for major economies and regions set to outperform • Trade policy outlook: #tariffs and countries at risk • Inflation risks and monetary policy across major economies • #ESG risks and energy transition prospects • Geopolitical risks in Europe and MENA, plus key #elections to watch • Major risks on our radar for the coming quarters Register here: https://ow.ly/73fH50VlxsY #ConnectedThinking #MonetaryPolicy #EmergingMarkets #GeopoliticalRisk

Growing anti-American sentiment globally is leading to consumer boycotts of US products, driven by recent policies and statements from President Trump. This shift in consumer behavior poses significant risks for US brands across various industries. Read the full article: https://ow.ly/69bZ50Vla1S #ConnectedThinking #ConsumerSentiment #USBrands

The reduction in USAID funding introduces significant challenges for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with profound impacts expected on economic and social fronts. This aid cut poses serious risks for countries like South Africa, while others like Burundi and Ethiopia face pressure on their external accounts. Read the full article: https://ow.ly/Va5z50Vla1b #ConnectedThinking #SSA #USAID

Our Country Risk and Industry Analysts explore the global implications of the recently announced USD60bn cut in US foreign assistance. These cuts will significantly impact emerging markets worldwide, affecting sustainability, healthcare, and infrastructure. We will identify the markets most at risk and assess how funding cuts may heighten climate change risks and other sustainability challenges. Our analysis will extend to the effects on key industries, including healthcare and infrastructure, and the broader macro-economic consequences. Key topics include the impact of US aid cuts on climate change resilience and adaptation efforts, as well as other ESG risks; the effects on infrastructure development in emerging markets; the macro-economic implications for Sub-Saharan Africa; and the consequences for the healthcare industry in emerging markets, with a focus on opportunities for Mainland China. Register to join us here: https://ow.ly/p7LR50Vly1x #ConnectedThinking #USAidCuts #Sustainability #Healthcare #Infrastructure #EmergingMarkets #ClimateChange #ESG #MacroEconomics

The outlook for European defence spending is shifting, with increased investments aimed at reducing reliance on the US. The new 'ReArm Europe' plan, announced by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, could mobilize EUR800bn for defence. Read the full article: https://ow.ly/HkEa50VgplJ #ConnectedThinking #DefenceSpending #Europe