Dragonfly (part of FiscalNote)

An insurgent movement appears to be emerging in western Syria. Earlier this month, coordinated ambushes on government security forces led to four days of violence in Latakia and Tartus governorates, home to the Assad family’s Alawite community. Our latest report assesses the likelihood of renewed pro-Assad violence along the coast over the coming months. Read it here: https://lnkd.in/epKF8Shu #Syria #ConflictAnalysis #MiddleEast #AssadRegime #geopolitics #securityintelligence

Environmentalists in Europe are persisting with direct actions targeting businesses. Who are the primary targets, what tactics are activists using, and what are the main indicators to watch out for? Europe analyst Sebastian Bruhn shares his assessment 👇

Fragmentation of the global financial system is accelerating, heightening strategic risks for business globally. Western sanctions against Russia and US-China competition have raised concerns among some countries about their dependence on the Western financial system, incentivising them to seek alternatives. To illustrate this trend, we have created a data visualisation that sheds light on the competing alternatives to the US dollar. It explains the two main functions of the US dollar dominance and the potential knock-on effects of the financial system fragmenting over the coming years. To gain access to this and similar data visualisations, please get in touch with us today: https://lnkd.in/eT-CAcAJ #Geopolitics #GlobalFinance #FinancialFragmentation #USDollar #EconomicTrends

*Dragonfly in the media* - Washington has said it was open to exploring critical minerals partnerships with Congo. But is an increase in US mining companies investing in the Congo likely? Sub-Saharan Africa analyst Byron Cabrol comments for Reuters: https://lnkd.in/eMv98_Gj #congo #geopolitics

What major events are on the horizon that could impact security and intelligence teams? Strategic Outlook 2025: The Grey Swan Problem, our definitive global security and geopolitical risks forecast, includes a full calendar of key global events to watch this year. The graphic shown here is just a snapshot — get the complete picture, as well as our headline global assessment and detailed forecasts and trend analysis for every region, by accessing the full report now: https://lnkd.in/eqjmbZVy #SO25 #strategicoutlook2025 #geopolitics

Peace talks between Rwanda-backed M23 rebels and the DRC government are scheduled to begin in Angola on 18 March. In the meantime, our latest report explores how the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) rebel group is exploiting the ongoing conflict between these two parties. What does this mean for safety and security risks in northeastern DRC in the coming months? Get the full analysis here: https://lnkd.in/drVxYYfV #DRC #ADF #PeaceTalks #SecurityCrisis

What is the likelihood of an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities in the coming months? Middle East analyst Joshua Pike shares our assessment in the video below 👇For access to our full suite of intelligence reports on Iran and Israel, available through our Security Intelligence and Analysis Service (SIAS), please get in touch today: https://lnkd.in/eT-CAcAJ #MENA #Israel #Iran #geopolitics #securityintelligence

China is stepping up efforts to bring Taiwan under its sovereignty. Over the past few years, Beijing has ramped up its actions against the island, including airspace infringements, cyber operations and harassment of Taiwanese vessels in the Strait. To support our clients’ planning, we have identified four long-term crisis scenarios for a conflict in the Strait. Contact us to access the full report, which includes scenario analysis, early warning indicators and our assessment of each scenario's implications. #China #Taiwan #Geopolitics

Thank you to everyone who joined our Breakfast Briefing in London this morning! Our analysts explored Russia’s hybrid war in Europe — examining its evolving tactics since the invasion of Ukraine, the sectors and countries most affected, and where it’s heading next. For deeper insights, download The Hybrid War, the first report in Dragonfly’s Strategic Outlook 2025 Intelligence Spotlight series: https://lnkd.in/gqpM9aNa #Russia #geopolitics #securityintelligence

We asked Joel Gulhane, Dragonfly’s Director of Intelligence Operations, to share what’s on his bookshelf right now: “I have just finished reading The Heat & The Fury: On the Frontlines of Climate Violence by journalist Peter Schwartzstein. The book explores how climate change is fueling violence, as communities compete for increasingly scarce resources. One striking example is the Sahel, where herders and farmers are clashing over shrinking land, leading to deadly conflict. "For those of us working in security intelligence, these dynamics are nothing new — but Schwartzstein brings them to life with vivid regional case studies. His insights provide valuable indicators for assessing conflict risks in different parts of the world and identifying emerging trends before they escalate.” What’s on your geopolitical reading list? Let us know in the comments