Kpler

The first round is over – but not for long: what’s next for the Iran-Israel conflict? As the first round of the Iran-Israel conflict concludes, attention shifts to the strategic implications of recent developments. Israel's response to #Iran's October 1st attack aligned closely with our expectations, focusing on military installations while carefully avoiding nuclear and oil facilities. In the immediate term, market dynamics are expected to pivot toward fundamental factors. The price differentials for #crude grades destined for Israel, including CPC, BTC, and Rabi, may experience slight strengthening due to sustained Israeli demand. Concurrently, Iranian crude supplies are anticipated to remain robust at approximately 1.6 million barrels per day for the foreseeable future. Looking ahead, both nations are likely to adopt a cautious approach, with significant actions postponed until after the #US presidential election. While the initial wave of escalation may have subsided, this does not suggest a cessation of conflict. A geopolitical premium is expected to re-emerge, influenced by the outcomes of the upcoming election and external factors, such as Russia's ongoing support for Iran. Stay ahead of the market with Kpler Insight: https://brnw.ch/21wOcJ5 #Kpler #Israel

US corn and soybean exports are experiencing significant growth, reflecting strong market dynamics. Recent data from Kpler indicates a notable uptick in US soybean export shipments, aligning with seasonal trends. The US remains the sole major supplier of soybeans until Brazilian new crop availability in late January, contributing to increased shipment forecasts. Additionally, US #corn exports are on the rise after a seasonal dip, supported by robust supply and demand fundamentals. Kpler Insight projects exports to exceed 62.5 million tons for the 2024/25 season, an increase of at least 4 million tons year-over-year. This week, corn sales reached 3.6 million tons, marking the highest weekly total in over three years. Total outstanding sales now stand at 17.5 million tons, up 4.5 million tons compared to last year. These trends underscore a positive outlook for US agricultural exports as we move forward. Stay ahead of the market with Kpler Insight: https://brnw.ch/21wOaqo #Kpler #soybean #usaexports

Earlier this week, we hosted our Risk & Compliance Briefing in London, showcasing #Kpler’s new offering that’s setting new standards for transparency in compliant trading. With satellite imagery now verifying dark #STS transfers, we’re empowering the industry to evaluate risk with clarity and speed. Key insights from our team: Jean-Charles Gordon: Our latest solution helps clients assess risk exposure more effectively through comprehensive fleet views, bringing transparency to complex compliance landscapes. Dimitris Ampatzidis: With 8% of the global fleet now grey/shadow or sanctioned, risk levels have increased by 60% in critical transfer zones like Malta and Khor Al Zubair. Ana Subasic: #ArcticLNG2 remains central to market attention, with AIS spoofing and dark STS transfers on the rise as #sanctions evolve. Thanks to all who joined us in London! Our next R&C briefing event will be in Washington, DC, on Monday, November 18, where we will explore the world of maritime risks, sanctions, and regulatory compliance. Register now here: https://lnkd.in/dwirVHxi

Yesterday, Viktor Katona, Head of Oil Analysis at Kpler, discussed the impact of the #USelection outcome on global commodities markets, in partnership with Financial Times.  As we count down the days before the US presidential elections, #Kpler has prepared comprehensive reports diving deeper into this topic. Get the full picture: https://lnkd.in/e4vnVC3f You can access a link to the recording in the comments below 👇

Russia’s sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 plant has shut down: sources On October 11, Novatek’s first 6.6 mtpa train at the #ArcticLNG2 plant halted production, according to sources, marking a pivotal moment amid escalating sanctions. Since August, the plant has loaded eight #LNG cargoes, but finding buyers has proven challenging, even with significant discounts likely offered. Four vessels—the Pioneer, Asya Energy, Nova Energy, and Everest Energy—remain on the water, while previous shipments have discharged into floating storage units in Murmansk and Kamchatka. “A shutdown reveals two pressing issues: limited buyer appetite for Arctic LNG 2 cargoes and the unavailability of an ice-capable Arc7 vessel for winter deliveries,” says Ana Subasic, LNG & natural gas market analyst at Kpler Insight. Ana added that the project could restart after the winter season when the Northern Sea Route reopens - but only if there is buyer interest. As winter approaches, we’ll continue monitoring the impacts of #sanctions, demand, and logistical constraints on Arctic LNG 2’s operations. Stay ahead of the market with Kpler Insight: https://lnkd.in/dParFvuh #Kpler #energy #shipping #naturalgas

We are excited to attend the China International Oil and Gas Trade Congress (CIOGTC) in Shanghai on November 8th & 9th! Join us to hear our keynote speakers and learn how Kpler’s data & analytics can help your business mitigate risk and maximize returns. Visit our booth for live demonstrations of our products and see how real-time insights into global #oil & #gas markets can drive smarter decision-making. Don’t miss out on what thousands of commodity market professionals rely on every day! Book your meeting here: https://lnkd.in/dyfhK6Vt #kpler #CIOGTC

France’s power mix in 2024 is largely driven by super residual demand coverage—the percentage of demand met by renewables, nuclear, and hydro. It's impressive to see how the country's power mix in 2024 is consistently met by these low-carbon energy sources. But why do we still see gas plants running? They typically step in when renewable #energy production dips or when neighbouring energy prices surge. This allows France’s #nuclear fleet to capture foreign market share, giving gas plants room to operate domestically. Curious to dive deeper into these trends? Check out Kpler Power Insights for our weekly power reports, and stay informed on the latest energy developments! Alessandro Armenia #kpler #hydro #renewables

Our Head Analyst, US at Kpler, Matt Smith, will speak at RBN Energy's NACON conference on October 24, 2024! He'll join an insightful panel session titled "Gulf Coast Crude Market Trends", where he will dive deep into the evolving trends of the #US Gulf Coast #crude oil market and share valuable insights on what's next for the industry. Don't miss this opportunity to hear Matt's expert analysis at this premier event. Register now ➡️ https://lnkd.in/gP5HQxbN #kpler #NACON #oil RBN Energy, LLC

Meeting OFAC's Latest Requirements on OPC: Kpler's Solution for Risk and Compliance OFAC's new regulation, effective yesterday, strengthens the Price Cap Coalition’s efforts to enhance compliance and disrupt sanctioned trade. This underscores the need for strong due diligence, risk monitoring, and compliance in the maritime industry. Kpler’s Risk & Compliance solution offers the tools needed to meet these new #OFAC standards: ▪️ Sanctions Risk Monitoring: Real-time data on sanctioned vessels and ownership to ensure compliance with OFAC, OFSI, EU, UN, G7, etc. ▪️ Safety & Regulatory Compliance: Track IGP&I insurance membership, and IACS Classification Societies for regulatory adherence. ▪️ AIS Monitoring & Deceptive Practices: Detect AIS gaps, spoofing, and dark activity to mitigate deceptive practices. ▪️ Ship-to-Ship Transfers & Tanker Sales: Monitor high-risk STS events before tanker sales, reducing risks from hidden oil transfers. As sanctions tighten, Kpler is here to help you mitigate risks and ensure compliance. Learn more: https://lnkd.in/g3UCbBuE #Kpler #PriceCap #MaritimeCompliance #RiskManagement

Commodity impact of a strike on Iranian export facilities In 2024, #Iranian seaborne #crude and condensate exports have averaged 1.52 Mbd, with 97% heading to China. This surged to a six-year high of 1.85 Mbd in September. While an #Israeli strike on Iranian export infrastructure is unlikely at the moment, the potential for such an event has increased. Kharg Island, which handles 92% of Iran’s crude loadings and holds 34 Mb of storage capacity (40% of the country's total), could become a prime target. If Iranian exports are disrupted, China’s private refiners, most dependent on Iranian oil, may shift to alternatives like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Angola, the US, or even the 130 kbd of Far East Russian crude purchased by India this year. Beyond crude, #Iran’s #methanol and #LPG exports play an even larger role in global markets, meaning any disruptions could have widespread effects. Stay ahead of the market with Kpler Insight: https://lnkd.in/dParFvuh #kpler #globaltrade