Oxford China Policy Lab

"Even if Beijing refrains from directly blocking the Panama ports deal, the underlying issue remains: Hong Kong’s business community still operates with a level of autonomy that Beijing increasingly finds unacceptable." Oxford China Policy Lab fellow Chun Hey (Brian) Kot writes on CK Hutchinson for The Diplomat. https://lnkd.in/eC7F--m2

SCMP reported today that CK Hutchison Holdings will delay signing the deal to sell two strategic ports at the Panama Canal, as Beijing prepares an antitrust probe into the sale. In our latest piece for The Diplomat, Owen Au and I analyse what this deal reveals about the political realities facing Hong Kong businesses today. Key takeaways: - CK Hutchison’s unique position: Compared to Chinese state-owned enterprises typically seen in China’s overseas infrastructure projects, CK Hutchison has been less susceptible to Beijing's influence. Despite the passage of the National Security Law and Article 23, Beijing still lacks direct, formal channels of control over Hong Kong companies—relying instead on informal tactics like public opinion campaigns and interpersonal pressures. - Beijing’s growing distrust: Beijing’s public pressure campaign reflects its anxieties over entrusting the management of critical strategic assets to Hong Kong private companies. Although business interests have been a key partner in Hong Kong's ruling coalition, Beijing has grown increasingly distrustful of Hong Kong’s freewheeling capitalists for their relative autonomy, profit-driven motives, and lack of patriotism. - Li Ka-shing under scrutiny: Billionaire Li Ka-shing has drawn Beijing’s suspicion for his divestment from China and past expressions of sympathy toward pro-democracy protestors. This episode may provide Xi Jinping with the perfect opportunity to escalate pressure on Hong Kong businesses and assert greater dominance. Check out our analysis! https://lnkd.in/epJn7mwe Oxford China Policy Lab #Geopolitics #HongKong #China #PanamaCanal #CK #Hutchison #US #Trump

Had a great time at ISA 2025 in Chicago this week and am grateful for the feedback and insights from many top international relations scholars. I presented two working papers, related to my ongoing DPhil at the Oxford Internet Institute, University of Oxford and work with the Oxford China Policy Lab and Oxford Martin AI Governance Initiative. The first, "Racing for Recognition? Theorizing Emerging Status Hierarchies and Prestige Competition in the Artificial Intelligence Era" investigates how international status and prestige motives influence AI development and governance approaches at the national and firm levels. The second, "Strategic Paradoxes: Investigating US and Chinese Approaches to Open-Source Artificial Intelligence Development & Governance," considers unfolding, contrasting approaches to open source AI development and governance in the US and PRC that seemingly contradict previous tech strategies (in progress with Keegan McBride). Grateful for the thoughtful questions and conversations that helped refine this work. If you're interested in AI governance or US-China tech relations, happy to connect.

Tariffs are back! But were they ever gone? In the first briefing of our new OCPL Fellows Feature series, Fellow Jeffrey Love explores the granular data and themes that emerge. "Tariffs on China incur a net cost for the average American...Overall, the net effects of the tariffs (the cost of tariffs minus the tariff income) cost the average American household over $352 per year," he writes. Read in full: https://lnkd.in/eCrNY2Hy

Co-founder Scott S. spoke to TIME about Alibaba's latest AI reasoning model, QwQ-32B. https://lnkd.in/eWVWwfby

The latest OCPL newsletter is out! Collated thoughts from our colleagues, ranging from the Paris AI Summit and Taipei, plus much more... https://lnkd.in/e4hFaj3R

“Zhipu’s willingness to take the leap really opened up the pathway for greater international engagement in these commitments and safety frameworks.” Oxford China Policy Lab's Scott S. on Chinese AI firm Zhipu, profiled in The Wire China. https://lnkd.in/eid9Jr-4

The latest AI Safety Summit has just wrapped up in Paris, with varying degrees of buy-in and output. But what comes next for this critical series of meetings? In a paper co-authored alongside some of the leading minds in this space, Oxford China Policy Lab co-director Scott S. looks to what future Summits could offer. https://lnkd.in/eFx_whRD

Oxford China Policy Lab Director Scott S. features twice in Shakeel Hashim's excellent Transformer newsletter. Article one discusses US frontier strategy and other bits and pieces. Article two analyses where DeepSeek and its Chinese peers sit on AI Safety. Full note: https://lnkd.in/eHBDxaD4

Excited to share this piece on how Silicon Valley and Washington D.C. have considered DeepSeek's rise to prominence in the last week. Thank you to Bryanna Entwistle for her awesome contributions :) and to The Asia Foundation for bringing us together! Major thanks to Sam Hogg and Oxford China Policy Lab for helping me hone my ideas. And much appreciation to the The Diplomat for publishing the piece ~