Oxford Economics

Heightened tensions weigh heavily on major economies. In Scenario 1 of the 4 key risks revealed last week by our Global Scenarios Service, we forecast a surge in tariffs, with the U.S. imposing steep hikes—60% on China and 25% on key partners—sparking partial retaliation. 🔹 Oil Spikes: Stricter U.S. sanctions push oil above $90 per barrel. 🔹 Growth Slows: Global GDP falls to 2.0% in 2025, with further weakening in 2026. 🔹 Market Hit: U.S. stocks drop 10%+ as inflation rises and Fed easing is delayed. 🔹 Recovery Ahead: Trade deals stabilise North America; oil supply rebounds. To learn how this scenario will impact key global economic indicators, download the executive summary. https://okt.to/B67tqx #globaleconomy #geopoliticaltensions #riskmonitoring

How does business transformation really get done? In partnership with SAP Signavio and LeanIX, we conducted a one-on-one interview with the Strategy and M&A Integration lead at a multi-billion dollar manufacturing organization to identify how business transformation is carried out and what benefits these organizations have seen so far. This report and accompanying case study provide a deep dive into the intricacies of business transformation and its true costs: The Estimation Game: https://okt.to/YNgLqB #BusinessTransformation #Leadership #Strategy #Innovation Matthew Reynolds

Oxford Economics' Megatrends Scenarios model explores three key scenarios—Tech Revolution, Secular Stagnation, and Fractured World—analysing their effects on a broad range of macroeconomic and financial indicators. 📍 Download the infographic: https://okt.to/PyWD8J #MegatrendsScenarios

🔍 In which European cities is housing least affordable? 🏠 To learn more: https://okt.to/DpadJZ Housing affordability—a measure of an individual’s ability to afford to buy or rent a property— has declined markedly since 2020. Housing costs have surged for households due to rising house prices, rents, energy costs, and mortgage repayments. German cities, such as Berlin, are among the least affordable in Europe when it comes to housing. And while Athens has comparatively lower house prices than most other cities, housing cost pressures means that it ranks as the least affordable for residents across all major European cities. The theme that cities are significantly less affordable than rural areas within a country is most pronounced in Denmark, underpinned by the second least affordable major European city—Copenhagen. And these subnational disparities are set to persist in the coming years. Strong demand and significant supply challenges means that house prices in cities will continue to rise over the next five years, which, in turn, will place substantial upwards pressure on housing costs for residents of Europe's major cities. #Housing #RealEstate #CitiesEconomies

Saudi Arabia’s Credit Upgrade: What’s Driving the Growth? Find out here: https://okt.to/rGe8kh S&P raised Saudi Arabia’s credit rating to A+, citing governance improvements and Vision 2030-driven non-oil growth among key drivers. We see non-oil activities as the key driver of growth in 2024, backed by government and private sector investment. Meanwhile, inflation held steady at 2.0% in February but is expected to rise gradually. Oman’s inflation also remained stable at 1.0%. This is MENA in a Minute with Scott Livermore #SaudiArabia #CreditRating #EconomicGrowth #Inflation #MENA

How does the beauty industry impact Europe's economy? The Value of Beauty alliance commissioned Oxford Economics to assess how the sector’s sophisticated value chain supports European economies and fuels innovation while pursuing ambitious environmental and social objectives. Download the report here: https://okt.to/4Z0YSi #Beauty #economicimpact #Europe

Trump, Tariffs & Trade: Navigating a Changing Global Landscape US President Donald Trump has announced fresh tariff threats, adding uncertainty to global trade. While the overall macro impact may be modest, specific countries and industries will feel the effects. The US push for reciprocal tariffs could sharply impact India, Japan, Brazil, Thailand, and Vietnam, while Singapore stands to benefit from shifting trade flows. Download the report here. As protectionism rises and supply chains fragment, businesses must adapt to a world of 'slowbalisation' —where trade growth slows, and agility is key. That’s where 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗣𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗺 𝗯𝘆 𝗢𝘅𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗱 𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰𝘀 comes in. Know more about TradePrism : https://okt.to/BoycwX Download the full report: https://okt.to/z0Cafi #GlobalTrade #Tariffs #Slowbalisation #TradePrism #EconomicInsights

Join us 11am EST, April 3, for our webinar, ‘Can the economy weather the policy storm?'. Hosted by our Chief US Economist, Ryan Sweet, and our Deputy Chief US Economist, Michael Pearce, we will explore how the narrative around the US economy has shifted and what is ahead for the Federal Reserve. Tax and spending changes wouldn’t take effect until next year, while immigration restrictions would slowly weigh on the economy. The biggest wild card in our forecast has always been trade policy but the DOGE is an emerging risk. Register for this complimentary webinar today: https://okt.to/IpskNl #USeconomy #USpolicy #Trade

How to forecast sales performance amid economic uncertainty? A global manufacturing company came to us with these million-dollar questions: What market trends will drive my sales? Where should I invest? Here’s how we did it: https://okt.to/woEGv4

Join us on 9 April as we look into realigning supply chains in a time of tariff uncertainty. In this webinar, we'll explore the outlook for how tariff uncertainty may affect corporate decisions about supply chain structures. Additionally, we will review the latest Market Compass index from Oxford Economics, which evaluates the appeal of manufacturing across various global markets to assist companies in assessing their manufacturing location strategies. Register now: https://okt.to/o3GFge