Oxford Global Projects

WHAT CHALLENGES DOES THE UK FACE IN DELIVERING INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS? The National Infrastructure Commission published a new report exploring the cost and cost drivers of infrastructure in the UK compared with other countries. We drew on our extensive international dataset to bring objective analysis and insights. Systemic barriers to effective delivery are: 🔹 A lack of clear strategic direction, including long term strategy and funding. 🔹 Challenges with project clients and sponsors: a lack of accountability has impacted several projects. 🔹 Inefficient consenting and compliance: the current process can be risky and resource intensive. 🔹 Constrained supply chain: partially due to the previous factors, the construction sector has been reticent to invest. How have you seen these factors impact your projects? Read the full report at https://lnkd.in/ea5BBBCb. Great to see the fantastic work of our team: Andreas Leed, Giuseppe Sassano, Michala Techau, Britta Kleinsorge, Tiffany Handley, Dirk Poeker and Emma Schubart!

GETTING BIG THINGS DONE: better projects for people, planet and prosperity! Last week we had a great away day at the scenic Brasenose College, Oxford! Remote working is the norm here but there is nothing like meeting face to face! We were working on our strategy, so keep your eyes peeled for big things to come. #betterprojects #projectsrcf

Last week, two of our Senior Experts, Giuseppe Sassano and Karlene Agard MSc (Oxon), participated in the 10th Megaproject ‘Theory Meets Practice’ Workshop at the BI Norwegian Business School. Senior leaders from Norway and Sweden's construction industries presented some of Scandinavia’s most significant and iconic projects, including The New Norwegian Government Quarter, The New Karolinska Hospital in Stockholm, and The New Water Supply to Oslo. Leading academics also shared their latest research on sustainability and governance in megaprojects. Here are some key insights from the workshop that resonated strongly with our work: 🔹 Flexibility, scalability, and modularity in design are important for building successful megaprojects. 🔹 Many of the challenges faced by Scandinavian construction projects are common internationally. 🔹 Uniqueness bias is a significant challenge but it can be overcome to better project delivery. In line with this, our Founders, Prof. Bent Flyvbjerg and Alexander Budzier have just published a paper, "Uniqueness Bias: Why It Matters, How to Curb It," which details practical tools to address this issue in large-scale projects. The free PDF is available at https://lnkd.in/ewWHuJkF. What are your key takeaways from the paper? At Oxford Global Projects, we look forward to seeing these ideas shape the way we approach megaprojects and drive meaningful results in the industry! #Megaprojects #Leadership #ProjectManagement #Innovation

THE POWER OF THE "OUTSIDE VIEW" In his NYT bestseller, "Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World", David Epstein highlights the power of the "outside view" in decision-making. Our Chair, Prof. Bent Flyvbjerg champions this concept in project management. Chapter five underscores the importance of broad perspectives and analogous thinking in solving complex problems. Drawing on Prof. Flyvbjerg's insights, Epstein illustrates how stepping outside one's immediate expertise can lead to more accurate predictions and innovative solutions. By considering a wider array of similar cases, rather than focusing narrowly on the specifics, individuals can make more realistic assessments. This is one of the key things that we do at Oxford Global Projects: providing a range and likelihood of outcomes that is data-backed to enable better decision making. How have you taken the outside view on your projects? Thanks for sharing your insights, Tiffany Handley! She is one of our Consultants who’s demonstrated considerable range in her career, working across several sectors, living in multiple countries and getting a Distinction in her University of Oxford MBA! #projectRCF #OutsideView #Innovation #ReferenceClassForecasting

UNIQUENESS BIAS: WHY IT MATTERS, HOW TO CURB IT Congratulations to our Chair, Prof. Bent Flyvbjerg and CEO, Alexander Budzier on the publication of their paper with Dr Maria Christodoulou. Uniqueness bias is the tendency to view something as more singular than it is. Not an uncommon problem with projects! This is problematic, as our research shows that projects which perceive themselves as unique are more likely to have worse performance. The Project Manager’s perception that their project was positively correlated with a:  🔹 higher risk of cost overrun  🔹 higher risk of a cost overrun that is also an extreme outlier, and  🔹 higher likelihood that they agree with the statement “If we had known the real costs of the project, it would not have been built”. PMs ranked their projects on a ten-point scale of perceived uniqueness and an increase in point on the scale corresponded to a 5% increase in cost overrun.The PMs also confused local uniqueness (this hasn’t been done in this country or company before) with global uniqueness (this is truly novel internationally and not just to them). So how can you combat uniqueness bias? Make sure to incorporate the outside view, not just an internal perspective on the project. Here are some tools for that:  🔹 pre-mortems (https://lnkd.in/e_kHd5k2)  🔹 noise audits (https://lnkd.in/ejXK3FhQ)  🔹 reference class forecasting (https://lnkd.in/e8DBvRSM). Read the full paper at https://lnkd.in/ewWHuJkF. #projectrcf #uniquenessbias

Are the Olympic Games getting more costly than they're worth? Great interview from our CEO, Alexander Budzier on the cost of the Olympic Games with the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC). 🔹 Part of the positive legacy of the Summer Games is substantial urban regeneration, rather than attracting tourism - these are normally held by world-famous cities. 🔹 It's likely that the Games will only be held by rich nations, as they are now so expensive to host and have a record of continual and significant cost overruns. 🔹 Environmental sustainability is increasingly being taken into account with the Olympics - there's a requirement to reuse more facilities. Watch the full interview at https://lnkd.in/edTVFxep and read the paper 'The Oxford Olympics Study 2024' at https://lnkd.in/enMP78EB. #Olympics2024 #projectsustainability #megaprojects

Congratulations to our CEO, Alexander Budzier. The New York Times interviewed him for an article on the rising costs of the Olympics for host cities. Some of the key points were: 🔹 The Paris Olympics have followed the trend of having a significant cost overrun: 115% above the initial budget. This is despite efforts to reduce spending. 🔹 There’s a tension between cost, quality and scope which can’t be resolved through extending the timeline. This is one of the reasons the Olympics has historically high cost overruns. 🔹 The Paris Olympics includes refurbishing old buildings and it was hoped that this would help reduce costs. However, this isn’t necessarily cheaper than constructing a temporary building. Likewise, some of the sports are so specialised and rare that customised facilities are unlikely to be used. Alexander said ‘Which tourists are going to hurtle themselves down a bobsled track at suicidal speeds? These are expensive and difficult to use afterward.’ Read the full article at https://lnkd.in/dgCJrZ5x and the Oxford Olympics Study 2024 here https://lnkd.in/enMP78EB #Olympics #Paris2024 #UrbanPlanning #EventManagement #EconomicPolicy

IS HOSTING THE OLYMPICS WORTHWHILE? Our CEO, Alexander Budzier, discussed this on the Meanwhile in Europe podcast, hosted by Vlad Iaviță, Charles Cohen, The European Correspondent. They discussed 🔹 Why do the Olympics have a history of such steep cost overruns? Half of all Games have a 100% cost increase or more! Infrastructure is one of the big drivers and most projects have some degree of flexibility with scope and time but the Olympics only has significant leeway on costs. 🔹 What is the long term impact of the Games? They have a long lasting tourist uplift to GDP and the most successful host nations use it to regenerate rundown areas. It also provides leverage to make substantial infrastructure investments. 🔹 What's the impact of reusing facilities for the Olympics?  People think there are big cost savings but this is not necessarily the case. It is worthwhile doing but more on sustainability grounds than for substantial savings. The Paris Olympics will provide a good opportunity to learn more about this. What questions do you have about the Paris Olympics as a project? Listen to the full episode here https://lnkd.in/dQHDxT8v and read the recent Olympics research from Alexander and Prof. Bent Flyvbjerg at https://lnkd.in/d5uW6pBH. #ParisOlympics #projectoverruns #Paris2024

Great session from our CEO, Alexander Budzier on The Next Decade in the Construction Sector for RIBA. Progress has been diminishing within construction for years but there are increasing opportunities to capitalise on. One of the interesting approaches he shared was a National Highways case study. Typically, a substantial team of Engineers, Designers and more (~60 people) would be require about eight months to fully design a complex motorway junction. They would optimise the alignment, check the signage move and make sure it's complying with the regulations. Nowadays, Autodesk can automatically generate a model that takes into account all the relevant building and construction codes, as well as regulations. They can also use it to optimise certain elements. Autodesk can generate a multitude of feasible design alternatives and a small team of Designers will take two to four weeks to evaluate all the designs automatically generated, and choose the winning design. What new approaches have you seen adopted? #RICSconstructioninfrastructureconference2024 #RICS #constructionidustry #infrastructureindustry

Congratulations to our Senior Expert, Dr Giuseppe Sassano! He was awarded the Project Management Doctorate of the Year by the Association for Project Management for his doctoral research. His thesis, “Optimism Bias and Cost Overruns: Experimenting on the Internal and External Views in Resources and Time Estimation,” explores how behaviour can skew project estimates and results. Improving project forecasting is a crucial area and it’s great to see him contributing in academia, as well as in practice.