Rethink Energy

Australia as a testbed for Western green megaprojects Our piece last week comparing US and Chinese capex costs over eight power project types found that for onshore wind, solar and battery energy storage, China’s cost advantage is a relatively unremarkable 2:1 to 3:1 ratio. But if you extend the comparison to HVDC transmission lines, offshore wind, or compressed-air – projects involving a lot more heavy machinery and excavation – then the capex ratio is more like 4:1. For nuclear, if you take the reported capex costs of below $2.5 billion per GW at face value, the cost ratio is an exceptional 7:1, demonstrating that the more concrete involved, and the longer the lead times (to put it crudely) the bigger China’s advantage – or conversely, the more the West struggles. #solar #wind #batterystorage 

Data center power demand after DeepSeek Our recent commentary on data center power demand was that AI can only improve through brute-force application of ever more processing power and ever larger datasets, with exponential increases in energy consumption for a linear improvement in performance. In particular we cited the cost to train a model, which had grown to between a hundred million dollars to as much as a billion dollars apiece, which can be graphed with a clear upward trajectory even on a logarithmic scale. The natural conclusion was that the billion-dollar training mark would be passed, then $10 billion or even $100 billion dollars. Running these models, which is where long-term power demand enters the conversation, would likewise become ever more energy-intensive. Continue reading, for free, here: https://lnkd.in/ecsgEWdx #datacenters #power #renewables 

What’s next for China’s $60 billion battery export industry? The 2024 figures for China’s battery exports are in – coming to $61 billion, a decline of 6% on dollar value but up 8.1% in volume, according to the China Chemical and Physical Power Supply Industry Association. Much of the price decline occurred in mid-2023 already, so comparing December 2024 to December 2023, the figures are instead up 14.5% on dollar value and up 17.1% on volume. US-destined exports grew by 13% to a record $15 billion in 2024. This was followed by Germany ($10 billion, with Europe in total being $22.8 billion) and South Korea ($3.8 billion). #battery #exports #renewables 

Data center power demand after DeepSeek - analysis here, from Andries Wantenaar https://lnkd.in/en3wKR93 #Batteries // What’s next for China’s $60 billion #battery export industry? #PowerDemand // #Datacenter power demand after #DeepSeek #VirtualPowerPlants // #VPPs adopt #V2G in Shandong, #smartmetering in UK #EnergyStorage // Australia as a testbed for Western green megaprojects Orders // #Renewables orders this week Worth Notings // The world of renewables this week Price Tracking // #Lithium continues gradual recovery 

A 250 MW grid-forming battery is to be built in Xinjiang, China. China has been deploying synchronous condensers as large as 30 MW and even 50 MW recently, demonstrating that maintaining grid frequency has become a concern, which is now also to be addressed via grid-forming utility-scale battery projects. Now the Xinjiang region has launched bidding for a 500 MW / 2 GWh BESS project in Hotan and Pishan Counties, half of which (150 MW / 600 MWh and 100 MW / 400 MWh) is to be grid-forming rather than grid-following. #battery #BESS #energystorage

Synhelion and Plug Power push Western green fuel Green fuels have a fundamental problem – cost, which looks set to relegate them into the 2030s or even 2040s. This is all the more true in the West, whereas places like Xinjiang or Gujarat could start producing cost-effective fuel out of solar and wind power much earlier. The past week has seen some major announcements from Synhelion and Plug Power, for projects in Spain and Australia respectively – so can they make green fuels turn a profit already in the latter half of the 2020s? #solar #wind #greenfuel #renewables 

Consolidation sets in for solar As 2024 concludes, leading solar manufacturer LONGi Solar forecasts that it will post a loss of between $1.1 billion and $1.2 billion for the year – not atypical for Chinese solar manufacturers. This reflects the fact that they are producing below cost, with polysilicon and wafer prices down over 35% and 45% respectively, while cell and module prices are down over 25%. Only in protected markets like the US and India is the picture more optimistic for investments into solar manufacturing. #solar #renewables #solarmanufacturing 

Our sister service Rethink Energy is hiring! ⚡⚡⚡ Know of any pragmatic and ambitious students looking for work experience during their studies, preferably with a penchant for data centres? We have a paid internship opportunity to support the team tracking the bleeding edge technology trends in the world of #renewables. Tag and share 👇 Rethink Technology Research | Roz Hilton | Andries Wantenaar

Trump’s second Paris Accords withdrawal President Trump has announced that the US will withdraw from the Paris Climate Accords, part of a sweeping pro-fossil fuel agenda. One way to look at this is through the lens of déjà vu. The first time this happened, some segments of the energy transition faltered, others continued much as before, and still others came into being for the first time, such as the battery energy storage industry. One major difference this time is that the manufacturing and tariff introduced by President Trump has been implemented by President Biden in a manner which includes renewable energy. The IRA is not going to be completely reverted, and the investments made, often into red states, are not going to disappear... This article is free to read here: https://lnkd.in/eyDJm8XU #trump #renewables #parisclimateaccords

The Essential Services Commission for the Australian state of Victoria has proposed reducing the minimum feed-in tariffs from $0.03 AUD per kWh ($19 USD per MWh) to just 0.04 cents per kWh ($0.25 USD per MWh) from July. That’s effectively nothing, but is still more generous than the forecasted negative $1.5 per MWh wholesale electricity price which will coincidence with the minimum tariff periods. #solar #electricity #renewables