China Aerospace Studies Institute reposted this
Professor of Strategy (tenured full professor) at Naval War College China Maritime Studies Institute
Defense Intelligence Agency report released today—“#Nuclear Challenges: The Growing Capabilities of Strategic Competitors & Regional Rivals” Key #China content: • China continues to pursue at least qualitative or technical parity with an increasing scope of U.S. & #Russian capabilities.70 ... China announced in 2019 that all nuclear-#weapon states should diminish the role of nuclear weapons in their national security doctrines & refrain from developing low-yield nuclear warheads.109 However, China likely initiated a low-yield nuclear #warhead development program prior to this statement.110 ... China has reduced transparency in its nuclear program as its capabilities are increasing. ... Since 2015, China has removed this reprocessing facility from its annual publication of civilian nuclear fuel production, fabrication, storage, & reprocessing facilities. Additionally, it ceased reporting its stockpile of separated plutonium to the International Atomic Energy Agency (@iaeaorg ) in 2017.130 In the past several years, China’s organization traditionally associated with #military uranium enrichment has expanded production capacity & likely will continue to do so.131 ... In recent years, China’s possible preparation to operate its Lop Nur nuclear test site year-round & lack of transparency on its nuclear testing activities have raised concerns regarding its adherence to the U.S. “zero yield” standard also adhered to by the United Kingdom & France in their respective nuclear weapons testing moratoria.132,133 Outlook ... The PLA’s accompanying doctrinal concepts for employing these new nuclear capabilities probably remain nascent, which may introduce a period during the next several years of escalatory risks because of insufficiently established & predictable tactics, techniques, and procedures. Coupled with PLA officers’ downplaying the risks of imperfect information Beijing may accept greater risks as its nuclear doctrine & capabilities mature.134 ... we expect to see the following developments—listed in no particular order—that will blur conventional & nuclear boundaries: ... Beijing probably will seek to increasingly integrate nuclear deterrence during conventional crises .... Chinese military writings have noted that the introduction of new precise small-yield nuclear weapons could allow for the controlled use of theater-range nuclear weapons for warning & deterrence.136 ... U.S. Naval War College Naval War College Foundation Christopher Sharman Thomas Henderschedt Mike Studeman Phil Haun Jonathan Hunt China Aerospace Studies Institute Brendan Mulvaney Brian Weeden Sarah Kirchberger Hans Kristensen Decker Eveleth