Governor's Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness

From State Climatologist Jay Grymes A little lengthy … Tropics Update: Tuesday 5 AM   - TS Rafael -- max winds of 60 mph -- strengthening as it heads for Cuba - NHC has Rafael as ‘Cat 1’ this evening and a ‘Cat 2’ on Wednesday before reaching Cuba - NHC puts Rafael in the SE Gulf as low-end Category 2 on Wednesday evening - still anticipating slow weakening beginning on/by Thursday - NHC currently drops Rafael to TS intensity by 12 AM Saturday - still anticipating reduced forward speed as it crosses central Gulf - forecast uncertainty increases dramatically from Friday into the weekend ... wide spread in forecast paths - latest NHC TS Arrival Times still appear to be more than a day ahead of ‘reality’ for SE Louisiana based on latest forecast track and wind field envelope   Thoughts as of 5 AM Tuesday: (1) rains/showers for much of the state for elections … occasional stronger t-storms possible for northern & central LA but minimal severe threat as front stalls over the state (2) high uncertainty for Rafael in terms of intensity and location for the weekend … LA threat for significant tropical impact seems low to very low ... I'm thinking that TS winds may not reach the coast ... coastal flooding could be an issue (3) primary concern will be rain rather than wind for GameDay … and I’m thinking that even the heavy rain threat is low to very low.

From State Climatologist Jay Grymes Tropics Update: Monday 9 AM - TD#18 likely becomes Rafael today - NHC has Category 1 intensity moving into the SE Gulf on Wednesday - forward speed slows and uncertainty in track increases as Rafael reaches the central Gulf - wind shear begins weakening the system Friday into the weekend My thoughts: (1) no significant weather impacts for election day other than media coverage (hype?) (2) LOTS of uncertainty as to direction and forward speed by Friday & into the weekend (3) primary concern will be rain rather than wind as we head into the weekend for LSU/Bama … not a wash-out or deluge, just a rainy mess ******************************************

NHC Update-

From State Climatologist Jay Grymes Tropics Update: Sunday 7 AM - Invest 97L in Caribbean still disorganized but likely to become TD#17 or TS Rafael in the next couple of days ... disturbance near Puerto Rico likely to be absorbed by 97L - look for TS Rafael to move into SEern Gulf around mid-week … low-end potential to reach ‘Cat 1’ (NOTE: NHC opinions may be calling for higher max intensity) - most of the guidance suggests weakening as Rafael continues north-to-NW into the NEern Gulf … forecast track after 4-5 days is highly uncertain - Threat for Louisiana? I am still unconvinced, largely based on history ("never say never"). I suspect that wind shear will be a significant factor as Rafael gets into the eastern/NEern Gulf.

From State Climatologist Jay Grymes Tropics Update: Friday 7 AM - disturbance in Caribbean now up to 70% odds for development for days 3-7 - still not an invest - ensemble runs from the European (ECENS / EPS) and American (GEFS) model clusters suggest something could get into the Gulf next week … but confidence is very low - needs watching … but history suggests that this is unlikely to be a Louisiana threat

Reminder: The Deadline for applying for disaster assistance for Hurricane Francine is November 16 for residents in the Parishes of Ascension, Assumption, Lafourche, Jefferson, St. Charles, St. James, St. John the Baptist, St. Mary and Terrebonne.

Have a fun and safe Halloween! https://lnkd.in/gDBz6MnH

NWS Shreveport Update- Look for a line of thunderstorms to continue moving into the Four State Region this morning. Strong wind gusts to near 40 mph could accompany the strongest storms this morning.

From State Climatologist Jay Grymes Tropics Update: Wednesday 7 AM The NHC continues with "medium" development chances (40% odds for days 3-7) for the disturbed weather in the Caribbean. The cluster remains unorganized and NHC has yet to tag the area as an "invest." Even if the disturbance were to become a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or tropical storm), neither the European (ECENS/EPS) nor the American (GEFS) ensemble runs suggest any real threat for a Gulf Coast landfall, keeping the disturbance in the Caribbean region through the next 7+ days. (Anything beyond that time frame comes with very low confidence.)

From State Climatologist Jay Grymes Tropics Update: Tuesday 5 AM - disturbance in Caribbean still with 40% development odds for days 3-7 - not an invest … no “spaghetti plots” yet - ensemble runs from the European (ECENS / EPS) and American (GEFS) model clusters keep the disturbance in the Caribbean into next week … possible drift into the Gulf but virtually 'zero’ threat for Louisiana at this time