"One oddity is Fort Worth. While permits are plunging 54% in next-door Dallas, Fort Worth actually rebounded back around peak levels (8.8k units)." Read more in Jay Parsons' post below.
Multifamily building permits continue to plunge pretty much everywhere, as developers continue to face stiff headwinds to starting new projects. Permits have plummeted more than 40% from peak levels in more than half the nation's 50 largest metro areas. Some notables: -- Philadelphia, -81% -- San Antonio, -76% -- Portland, -73% -- Jacksonville, -70% -- Minneapolis, -69% -- Houston, -66% -- Nashville, -63% -- Seattle, -61% -- Orange County, -54% -- Dallas, -54% -- Denver, -53% It's an interesting list that doesn't discriminate by region of the country or by demand trends. Even in the steady Midwest and Northeast -- where rent growth continues at normalized levels in the face of lesser supply -- permits are down everywhere, including hotspots like Indianapolis (-41%), Boston (-36%), Kansas City (-28%), New York (-25%) and Columbus (-6%). One oddity is Fort Worth. While permits are plunging 54% in next-door Dallas, Fort Worth actually rebounded back around peak levels (8.8k units). So far, the permitting spike hasn't translated to spike in starts, but will be one to watch. And on that note: Remember that permitting rules vary by municipality, in terms of costs and timeline for when you must start construction or lose your permit. In some markets, developers may be more likely than others to pull the permit and get "shovel ready," but delay the start until capital is available. Another two to watch are construction boomtowns of Austin and Phoenix. While permitting is down from peaks, it's not down as much as peer markets. And in both cases, T-12 permits remain quite elevated relative to pre-COVID norms of 2018-19 (Phoenix is still +80% and Austin is +25%). Other notables still above 2018-19 permitting baseline include Tampa, Raleigh and Atlanta. Compare that to peers like Houston (-48% compared to pre-COVID averages), Dallas (-40%), Nashville (-19%) and Charlotte (-11%). Again, you can't look at permits alone as the sole predictor given varying timelines and seriousness of permit pulling by municipality. But it could offer one clue on where supply/demand might recover earlier than others. #housing #apartments #construction