https://lnkd.in/dmDVYTxu
I think the first part of Laura Kuenssberg's headline is not entirely accurate, my point being 'which polls?'. As I posted last week, in the past few days we have had a persuasive number of MRP polls from reputable polling organisations which point to a large Labour majority (and I think we should take the one MRP poll which reduced the Tories to around 50 seats with a pinch of salt). Given the MRP track record generally since 2017 (and Survation's in particular), these can hardly be dismissed even by the most cautious Labourite.
However, i do think the second part of Ms Kuenssberg's headline is spot on. First, Neil Kinnock's premature triumphalism almost certainly gets more of the blame for Labour's surprise defeat in 1992 than it deserves; but it played a part and it continues to haunt the party (and rightly so) to this day. Second, looking at the polls in sum, it remains very much the case that a large number of voters are motivated not by a desire to see Keir Starmer in No 10 but by wanting to kick the Tories out; there is a real risk that if these types in particular think the job is all but done they will decide not to bother voting at all to Labour's detriment. Third, and related, Labour does stand to lose votes to other non-Tory options; while this has been working for them in the case of tactical voting for the LibDems in by-elections (and which we'll also see in the general election), it could count against them in the case of, say, votes for the Greens in some constituencies. Fourth, Nigel Farage's comments on Russia/Ukraine may well push some who were proposing to vote Reform UK back into the Tory camp.
Individually, none of these is likely to have a profound impact. But cumulatively they could see Labour's majority reduced significantly relative to what the better MRP polls are telling us. So, yes, this is no time for complacency - or a major gaffe of some sort.