Alex Irwin-Hunt’s Post

President Xi Jinping's recent trip to Europe underscores China's strategic shift in foreign policy. 🌍 Visits to nations like Serbia and Hungary highlight China's focus on building economic ties with countries aligning with Beijing amid global tensions. The emphasis on FDI in critical sectors signals China's aim to diversify investment strategies and deepen economic partnerships. 🤝🇨🇳 #ChinaEuropeRelations #EconomicDiplomacy https://lnkd.in/edH_ZqmY

Excerpt, Michael Smith, the Australia Financial Review (AFR): //Cross-border exchanges, research grants, tourist visits, #capital flows and #investment between China and #Australia are at their lowest levels in over half a decade despite improving diplomatic ties. Data compiled by The Australian Financial Review shows vital metrics in the critical bilateral relationship have failed to return to levels before ties soured under the Turnbull and Morrison governments and, in some cases, are shrinking. More than a year after China scrapped its zero-COVID policies, the country remains more isolated from Australia and the rest of the world as President Xi Jinping warns his citizens to watch out for foreign #spies and ramps up #nationalsecurity crackdowns. At the same time as #nationalism inside the country rises, the United States and its allies are bolstering #defence #alliances to try to deter China’s territorial ambitions over Taiwan and parts of the #southchinasea. They are also ramping up efforts to cut off China’s access to technology and break its dominance of crucial industries, such as critical minerals. Data, which has long been a measure of the strength of Sino-Australian relations, and interviews with key players suggest that although political tensions have eased in recent months, economic engagement between both countries is yet to increase significantly. And it is not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels, despite Beijing withdrawing its economic coercion tactics, including wine tariffs last month. “It’s not going back to 10 years ago when we could do no wrong. It (the market) is not going to be recaptured. Internally, China has changed,” said Warwick Smith, chairman of the #Business Council of Australia’s global engagement committee and a former Liberal minister who visits China regularly. “We are trying to find some new areas for engagement – don’t just think you will go back to the way things were. We might capture back some of our markets from the Argentinians and the French in wine, but we have to think about some new areas.” Chinese investment in Australia has been declining since 2016, a trend expected to continue as the country’s economic growth slows and Xi’s government ramps up efforts to stop capital leaving the country. Chinese visitor numbers to Australia are about half of what they were before the pandemic closed borders. Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows 71,170 short-term visitor arrivals from China in January this year, compared to 142,850 in 2019. Experts say global #geopolitical tensions will dictate the future of Beijing’s relations with Canberra, regardless of the Albanese government’s progress in repairing relations with Beijing, which hit a low point when Scott Morrison called for an inquiry into the origins of COVID-19 in 2020.// #geopolitics #derisking #diversification

ᴘʀᴇsɪᴅᴇɴᴛ xɪ ᴊɪɴᴘɪɴɢ's ᴅɪᴘʟᴏᴍᴀᴛɪᴄ ᴏᴅʏssᴇʏ ɪɴ ᴇᴜʀᴏᴘᴇ President Xi Jinping embarks on a consequential journey through Europe amid heightened tensions. Criticism over China's dominance in green technology prompts EU investigations into state subsidies, casting shadows on bilateral relations. Despite these challenges, Xi's itinerary exudes warmth and camaraderie, with visits to France, Serbia, and Hungary. French President Macron, initially critical, now extends a personal invitation to Xi, emphasizing bilateral ties. In Hungary and Serbia, economic cooperation takes center stage, showcasing China's investment prowess. This tour also underscores China's solidarity with Russia, highlighting geopolitical shifts. As Xi commemorates the anniversary of the US embassy bombing in Belgrade, the overarching aim becomes apparent: to foster deeper EU-China ties, potentially altering the global power dynamics. #EUChinaRelations #Geopolitics https://lnkd.in/ePCXHwVN

BEIJING — Chinese President Xi Jinping said Monday that no challenges can stop the country from moving forward and reiterated Beijing’s reunification aims with Taiwan. He was speaking at a reception commemorating the 75th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China, which was founded on Oct.1, 1949. “The path ahead will definitely see challenges,” Xi said, before calling on the country to overcome uncertainties and risks. “No challenges can stop China’s progress.” The comments were translated by CNBC from a Chinese state media broadcast. The brief speech, aired during the state broadcaster’s daily evening news program, noted that Xi and other top Chinese leaders entered the reception shortly after 5 p.m. local time on Monday. About 3,000 people, including foreigners, attended the event in Beijing, according to state media. During his speech, Xi emphasized the need to unify under the Chinese Communist Party’s leadership and reiterated Beijing’s “firm opposition” to Taiwan “separatist” activities, while calling for both sides to increase economic and cultural cooperation. He cast reunification with Taiwan as an inevitable development of history — something he has said previously. Beijing considers the democratically self-ruled island as a part of its territory. No mention of trade tensions Tensions between China and the U.S. and Europe have increased over the last several years, with Western nations increasing tariffs and restrictions on Beijing’s access to advanced technology. Xi did not mention specific countries or trade conflicts in his Monday speech, instead portraying China as upholding globalization. He broadly thanked “friendly” countries and supporters of China’s development. He also emphasized Beijing’s claim to Greater China by saying “national rejuvenation” was the hope of Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and all Chinese peoples. The Beijing leader added that China would “spur” the development of Hong Kong and Macao — both self-governed regions which are ruled by Beijing under the “one country, two systems” principle. In a 2019 speech commemorating the PRC’s 70th anniversary, Xi had said that no force could sway China’s development, amid festivities involving a military parade and large-scale celebrations. Events for the 65th anniversary were more subdued. Xi’s speech comes at a time of uptick in Chinese markets in recent weeks, with major mainland Chinese and Hong Kong stock indexes recently surging to their highest in more than a year after authorities announced plans to support economic growth. On Thursday, a high-level meeting led by Xi called for halting the real estate decline, and for strengthening fiscal and monetary policy. While the People’s Bank of China has cut rates in the last week, the Ministry of Finance has yet to announce additional fiscal support.

“Nearly all the US’ friends in Asia have China as their number one trading partner. Whether or not China ever becomes number one in the world by GDP (it is already there on a PPP basis), Asian governments are clear that China is already too important and too enmeshed in the global economy to be sidelined… …Even the closest U.S. ally is never going to cut itself off from China politically or economically. Few if any Western companies are ever going to entirely forswear investing in the Chinese market even if they will be more cautious about transferring technology there. These words likely resonate with New Zealand exporters concerned about the current escalation of tensions… …This might be a good time to consider which side of this debate we want to be on - the “I win you lose” approach advocated by Pottinger and Gallagher, or the more realist view of Singapore, where both powers acknowledge they are both going to be around for a long time, and need to find a way to share the globe with each other – without one side or the other necessarily “winning”. https://lnkd.in/gbRu7mbb

China’s strategic push into the MENA region is something to watch closely. While the U.S. works to hold onto its influence, #China is moving forward with economic programs, infrastructure projects, and energy deals that are really catching the attention of #MENA governments and businesses. The numbers speak for themselves 👇 - From 2017 to 2022, China’s trade with the MENA region nearly doubled. The Belt and Road Initiative has driven billions of dollars in investment into everything from ports to telecommunications. - At the same time, China's influence is growing in areas like technology (Huawei's 5G partnerships are a good example), security (with rising arms sales), and even diplomacy, where China has recently brokered key agreements between regional players. For the U.S., this is a clear challenge 👇 - The U.S. has long had a strong foothold in MENA, but with China's growing footprint, American businesses are finding it harder to compete on an increasingly uneven playing field, especially in sectors like tech, energy, and infrastructure. - If the U.S. wants to stay relevant in the region, it’s going to need a more strategic approach, from promoting free trade agreements to leveraging existing strengths in security and renewable energy. The U.S. can’t afford to ignore what’s happening here—China’s economic strategies in the MENA region are gaining momentum, and the shift in influence is real. ℹ If you want to learn more, the U.S.-Arab Chamber of Commerce has just released the following report titled "Shifting Sands: How China is Outpacing the USA in the MENA Region" #BeltAndRoad #BRI #USInfluence #Trade #GlobalEconomy #Diplomacy #MiddleEast #KSA

Detailed analysis on what China is doing to secure its trade and energy supply chains once Uncle Sam is turning its forever (proxy) wars to China most likely via Taiwan. Recent China Customs data already indicates the shift in trading patterns with BRICS countries, Central Asia, Mexico and SE Asia. Every political, military, economic and financial playbook the collective west is deploying in Ukraine against Russia is minutely studied by Beijing. […] Last year, China began to speed up the building of the final leg of the Central Asia-China pipeline, which will transport natural gas from Central Asian countries – primarily Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan – into China. Turkmenistan is already China’s top supplier, and the Central Asia Gas PipelineChina is the biggest supplier of China’s imported gas. Total capacity through the pipelines once line D is completed will be 85 bcm – the equivalent of nearly two Nordstreams. Russia, China, and Kazakhstan also just announced an initiative to improve their transport and logistics infrastructure, including a direct transport link connecting Xi’an with Moscow. The Southern Transport Corridor is an example of a plan to hedge against any efforts of “deterrence” by the West. The route, which will connect Russia, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and China via the Caspian Sea, could be viewed as a contingency plan in case the shorter Kazakhstan connection is disrupted. China’s trade with the Central Asian states (Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan) hit $89.4 billion in 2023, a 27 percent increase over 2022. That puts the central Asian states collectively in 10th place on the list of China’s top trading partners and has them poised to overtake the Netherlands and Germany, with whom trade is rapidly declining. […] #china #russia #unitedstates #kazakhstan #uzbeskistan #turkmenistan #afghanistan #centralasia #supplychains #transportation #rail #trade #corridors #kyrgyzstan #trade #oilandgas #energy #strategy #geopolitics #europe #energymarkets #oiltankers #sanctions #taiwan #tajikistan #xinjiang #iran #brics #sco

The development meant by one side here (Q1) and the economic growth mentioned by the other side there (Q2) are two dissimilar notions and have different ultimate goals. To be meditated. Q1: "'The world is big enough to accommodate the simultaneous development and prosperity of both China and the United States,' he said, according to a Chinese Foreign Ministry readout, adding that U.S.-China relations will stabilize once the U.S. takes 'a positive and constructive view of China’s development.'" Q2: "'Speaking to reporters after the meeting, Blinken said...'We want China’s economy to grow,' he said, but 'the way China grows matters.'" https://lnkd.in/g87EvtuA

"French President Emmanuel Macron is calling for an update of the country’s economic ties with China, just as the country’s leader Xi Jinping is expected to travel to France for a State visit." Another brilliant demonstration of the decadence of the European and Western "elites" in the broadest sense. History! - In China, 1839 is considered as the beginning of the country's modern history. - In 1842, the British imposed the Treaty of Nanking, which forced China to increase foreign trade, give compensation, and cede Hong Kong Island to the British. - The British flooded China with opium to balance their trade deficit... Opium imports started in 1650 by the Portuguese, and then England took the lead in 1775. - All Western countries tried to colonize China to control trade in what was then known as the "Money Pit." China exported tea and silk (in fact, the West exported to China), but the country didn't buy goods from the West. All the money from the West flowed into China, hence the nickname. - Foreign concessions were concentrated in Shanghai: 1841 for England, 1845 for the USA, 1849 for France... - The Chinese authorities decided to end the ravages of Opium. Although China lost HK and control of the 5 main ports in the first Opium War, and then, several years later, the Boxer Revolution kicked foreigners out of the country. The tens of thousands of Chinese killed by the army of the Alliance of the 7 (the countries with concessions in Shanghai) created the roots of an assertive nationalism that met with communist revolutions in Russia at the beginning of the 20th century. The Second Opium War (1856-60) further weakened the Qing regime... In conclusion : - Occidentals flood China with Opium - Occidentals weakened the political system centered around an emperor, allowing the Cultural Revolution to take hold. - Occidentals killed tens of thousands of Chinese. - Occidentals invaded a part of China... Then - Occidentals fight the communism - Westerners lament the deficit in their trade balances. When some politicians order reciprocity, they should go back to school to learn and increase humility. We are lucky that China never did the same in Occident, even if now, the Fentanyl crisis and current trade asymmetry need to be addressed. This trade deficit has not been a problem for decades, while Occident preferred to delocalize its industrial production to China, preferring to focus on Services... and Now... China is not perfect by far, but the Occidentals are fighting the CCP while they have created the conditions for its accession... Now, the BRICS+6 is becoming more powerful than the G7, and Occident still considers these countries a colony. History has demonstrated that this kind of mistake could cost a lot. Just compare the current situation between the UK vs China.