Chih-Ying Chen’s Post

Will hurricanes get more intense in a warmer climate? Scientists are looking into how moisture in the atmosphere might affect the growth of hurricane “seeds.” Increased atmospheric moisture may alter critical weather patterns over Africa, making it more difficult for the predecessors of many Atlantic hurricanes to form, according to a new study led by NSF NCAR scientist Kelly Nunez Ocasio, PhD. Learn more about cyclogenesis, or the formation of tropical storms, and how a warmer climate will impact hurricanes: https://lnkd.in/gtRY3g-6 • • • #hurricanes #wxresearch #weather

JUL 1, 2024 - BY AUDREY MERKET - NSF NCAR - The National Center for Atmospheric Research, "Increased #atmosphericmoisture produced weaker hurricane formation ---- Increased atmospheric moisture may alter critical #weatherpatterns over Africa, making it more difficult for the predecessors of many #Atlantichurricanes to form, according to a new study (https://lnkd.in/ePxmC7AB) published this month.   The research team, led by scientists from the U.S. NCAR, used an innovative model that allows for higher-resolution simulations of hurricane formation than ever before. This allowed researchers to study the effects of increased regional moisture over Africa, which is the birthplace of #weathersystems that later produce #hurricanes over the #Atlantic.   Past research has suggested that warmer #oceanwater and a moister atmosphere could cause hurricanes to become more intense with greater amounts of #rainfall. But how atmospheric moisture, which is predicted to increase in a #warmingclimate, may be impacting #hurricaneformation itself has not been studied in detail until now.   The researchers found that a moister environment produced weaker and slower-moving African easterly waves, or disturbances which are the primary precursor or “seed” for hurricanes in the Atlantic. The addition of moisture moved the location of thunderstorms within the wave, making it harder for the wave to grow. Increased moisture also slowed the movement of the wave resulting in weaker and delayed hurricane seed formation by the time it reached eastern Atlantic waters.   “Considerable work during the last two decades has emphasized the role of deep moist convection to explain the development of African easterly waves,” said NSF NCAR scientist and lead author Kelly Núñez Ocasio. “But, the precise role of moisture has proven somewhat elusive. With the development of new modeling capabilities, I was able to focus on the role of moisture in cyclogenesis stemming from the hurricane seed.” NEXT-GEN MODELING ...The birth of hurricanes and other #tropicalcyclones, known as #cyclogenesis, is a complex process where small-scale weather events and large-scale atmospherics happen simultaneously. This complexity has made it difficult to study and model the formation of tropical cyclones. Most #climatemodels provide only a grainy picture of what is happening with localized #weather, which makes it difficult to learn anything about the role of individual ingredients, like moisture, that mix together to create cyclogenesis.   To address this, the research team turned to the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) (https://lnkd.in/emat3vUr). MPAS has the ability to model weather both locally and globally. This capability allowed Núñez Ocasio and her colleagues to zoom out and simulate #globalmoisture and then zoom in to see how that would interact with localized weather events that lead to the formation of tropical cyclones..." #climate #climatescience #climatechange Continue reading

Hurricane Beryl is the earliest Cat5 ever seen during a Hurricane Season. New research shows that although climate change is providing more fuel, it may also weaken their seeds in the future. Atlantic hurricanes have pre-cursors that form as waves in the air currents that travel west from Africa. As the climate warms, it allows more moisture to be held in the air. This affects the north African air currents, narrowing and shifting the African easterly jet poleward, reducing the kinetic energy available to the African easterly wave and weaker seeds spreading across the Atlantic. Story: https://lnkd.in/etxQXywh #hurricane #atmosphere #moisture #atlantic #africa

I was way ahead about this development already in September of 2017. Why limit ourselves to a caregory 6 hurricane? Better scale all the way up to categorie 10, just to be sure. In September 2023 I saw a post about hurricane development, fueled by extremely heated oceans, predicting a hurricane season of epic proportions. This was my response: “Duly noted. Disconcerting news. Isn't it about time, though, I wonder, to adjust the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale? 'The Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS), [...] classifies hurricanes – Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of tropical depressions and tropical storms – into five categories distinguished by the intensities of their sustained winds. To be classified as a hurricane, a tropical cyclone must have maximum sustained winds of at least 74 mph (33 m/s; 64 kn; 119 km/h) (Category 1). The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, contains storms with sustained winds exceeding 156 mph (70 m/s; 136 kn; 251 km/h).' https://lnkd.in/e_heZ22T [Source: Wikipedia] https://lnkd.in/eYkCJGD8 [Hurricane Irma Puerto Rico Florida] This classification applies a maximum of 5 for wind scales over 250 km/h. But Hurricane Irma, back in 2017, had already exceeded wind scales of 350 km/h and that would still have made her only a category 5, officially. Therefore I suggest, as I did back in September of 2017, that we expand the scale as follows: (between brackets the rounded numbers in km/h) 1. 119 - 153 km/h (121-155) 2. 154 - 177 km/h (156-175) 3. 178 - 209 km/h (176-210) 4. 210 - 249 km/h (211-250) 5. 250 - 282 km/h (251-280) 6. 283 - 311 km/h (281-310) 7. 312 - 341 km/h (311-340) 8. 342 - 371 km/h (341-370) 9. 372 - 400 km/h (371-400) 10. > 400 km/h (> 401) In this proportionally adjusted scale, Hurricane Irma would have been designated a Category 8 Hurricane, which would have been far more befitting. In view of the fact that climate scientists already predict that hurricanes will grow, not as much in frequency as well in strength, it seems to me that it is not more than logical that our meteorological reference frames must be adjusted accordingly. And should it so happen that henceforth this scale is renamed the Saffir-Simpson-Flos Hurricane Wind Scale then I will not object to that in the slightest. 😉” Duly noted.

⚠️ Hurricanes So Powerful, They're Off the Scale! ⚠️ Scientists are now advocating for a new hurricane category: Category 6. This comes as several storms since 2013 have shattered the upper limits of the current Category 5 classification. 🌀 Why This Matters:  The move signals a stark reality check on how climate change is intensifying natural disasters. Category 6 isn't just a number; it's a clear indicator of unprecedented storm power. 🔗 Read the Full Article: https://lnkd.in/dXwbctXJ 💬 **Let's Discuss:** How do you think this will impact disaster preparedness and climate policies? Share your thoughts below. #ClimateChange #Meteorology #Innovation #Sustainability

The Challenge of Hurricane Modification: Can Technology Tame Nature? For decades, the idea of weakening hurricanes to prevent devastation has intrigued scientists, leading to projects like NOAA's Project Stormfury in the 1960s-1980s. The goal was to disrupt hurricane eyewalls using silver iodide, a process known as cloud seeding, to reduce storm intensity. Early tests seemed promising, showing temporary reductions in wind speeds, but later research revealed similar natural processes in storms not subject to intervention, leading to doubts about the effectiveness of artificial disruption. Consequently, NOAA halted such research, focusing instead on improving storm forecasts and promoting preparedness. Despite past failures, new interest in storm modification is emerging, driven by climate change and the rising intensity of hurricanes. For instance, Norwegian company OceanTherm is exploring "bubble curtains" to cool ocean waters and potentially weaken storms before they reach land. Japan’s Moonshot Research and Development Program is funding innovative approaches to control typhoons, including water-cooling technologies and atmospheric interventions. However, these ideas face significant technical, environmental, and geopolitical risks, as manipulating storm paths could unintentionally impact other regions, causing potential conflicts. From a scientific perspective, weather modification remains speculative. Massive energy exchanges in hurricanes make even small interventions challenging and potentially futile. Furthermore, modifying one storm could intensify another, given the complexity of atmospheric energy distribution. Ethical, logistical, and environmental concerns make weather modification more of a long-term, theoretical pursuit rather than an imminent solution to hurricane threats. Current efforts underscore the difficulty of controlling natural phenomena, despite technological advancements. #HurricaneControl #WeatherModification #StormFury #ClimateInnovation #HurricanePrevention #TechVsNature #OceanTherm #DisasterMitigation #ClimateResilience #ExtremeWeather

🌀 Understanding the incredible power and complexity of hurricanes is essential in our changing climate. These meteorological giants are more than just storms, as they can generate energy on a scale that dwarfs human electricity production. From their formation over warm tropical waters to their devastating impact, hurricanes are a reminder of nature's might. Our latest blog delves deep into how these natural phenomena form and the critical role of advanced weather forecasting in mitigating their effects. 🔗 Read more about the birth, categories, and impacts of hurricanes, and discover how improved weather intelligence can help us fortify against nature’s wrath. 👇 https://lnkd.in/d4vyQxiV #Meteorology #HurricanePreparedness #WeatherIntelligence #ClimateChange #NaturalDisasters #AdvancedForecasting #EnvironmentalScience

The Challenge of Hurricane Modification: Can Technology Tame Nature? For decades, the idea of weakening hurricanes to prevent devastation has intrigued scientists, leading to projects like NOAA's Project Stormfury in the 1960s-1980s. The goal was to disrupt hurricane eyewalls using silver iodide, a process known as cloud seeding, to reduce storm intensity. Early tests seemed promising, showing temporary reductions in wind speeds, but later research revealed similar natural processes in storms not subject to intervention, leading to doubts about the effectiveness of artificial disruption. Consequently, NOAA halted such research, focusing instead on improving storm forecasts and promoting preparedness. Despite past failures, new interest in storm modification is emerging, driven by climate change and the rising intensity of hurricanes. For instance, Norwegian company OceanTherm is exploring "bubble curtains" to cool ocean waters and potentially weaken storms before they reach land. Japan’s Moonshot Research and Development Program is funding innovative approaches to control typhoons, including water-cooling technologies and atmospheric interventions. However, these ideas face significant technical, environmental, and geopolitical risks, as manipulating storm paths could unintentionally impact other regions, causing potential conflicts. From a scientific perspective, weather modification remains speculative. Massive energy exchanges in hurricanes make even small interventions challenging and potentially futile. Furthermore, modifying one storm could intensify another, given the complexity of atmospheric energy distribution. Ethical, logistical, and environmental concerns make weather modification more of a long-term, theoretical pursuit rather than an imminent solution to hurricane threats. Current efforts underscore the difficulty of controlling natural phenomena, despite technological advancements. #HurricaneControl #WeatherModification #StormFury #ClimateInnovation #HurricanePrevention #TechVsNature #OceanTherm #DisasterMitigation #ClimateResilience #ExtremeWeather

Ocean Heat As an oceanographer, climate change scientist, and disaster risk analyst, I find the following report on Hurricane Helene deeply concerning. The presence of unusually warm water in the Gulf of Mexico, likely exacerbated by climate change, provided ample fuel for rapid storm intensification. The Loop Current's warm eddy near the coast is particularly alarming, as it could lead to more destructive hurricanes in the future. The combination of high storm surge, heavy rainfall, and strong winds extending far inland highlights the increasing vulnerability of coastal and inland communities. https://lnkd.in/d6ZSzRpU