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JUL 1, 2024 - BY AUDREY MERKET - NSF NCAR - The National Center for Atmospheric Research, "Increased #atmosphericmoisture produced weaker hurricane formation ---- Increased atmospheric moisture may alter critical #weatherpatterns over Africa, making it more difficult for the predecessors of many #Atlantichurricanes to form, according to a new study (https://lnkd.in/ePxmC7AB) published this month. The research team, led by scientists from the U.S. NCAR, used an innovative model that allows for higher-resolution simulations of hurricane formation than ever before. This allowed researchers to study the effects of increased regional moisture over Africa, which is the birthplace of #weathersystems that later produce #hurricanes over the #Atlantic. Past research has suggested that warmer #oceanwater and a moister atmosphere could cause hurricanes to become more intense with greater amounts of #rainfall. But how atmospheric moisture, which is predicted to increase in a #warmingclimate, may be impacting #hurricaneformation itself has not been studied in detail until now. The researchers found that a moister environment produced weaker and slower-moving African easterly waves, or disturbances which are the primary precursor or “seed” for hurricanes in the Atlantic. The addition of moisture moved the location of thunderstorms within the wave, making it harder for the wave to grow. Increased moisture also slowed the movement of the wave resulting in weaker and delayed hurricane seed formation by the time it reached eastern Atlantic waters. “Considerable work during the last two decades has emphasized the role of deep moist convection to explain the development of African easterly waves,” said NSF NCAR scientist and lead author Kelly Núñez Ocasio. “But, the precise role of moisture has proven somewhat elusive. With the development of new modeling capabilities, I was able to focus on the role of moisture in cyclogenesis stemming from the hurricane seed.” NEXT-GEN MODELING ...The birth of hurricanes and other #tropicalcyclones, known as #cyclogenesis, is a complex process where small-scale weather events and large-scale atmospherics happen simultaneously. This complexity has made it difficult to study and model the formation of tropical cyclones. Most #climatemodels provide only a grainy picture of what is happening with localized #weather, which makes it difficult to learn anything about the role of individual ingredients, like moisture, that mix together to create cyclogenesis. To address this, the research team turned to the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) (https://lnkd.in/emat3vUr). MPAS has the ability to model weather both locally and globally. This capability allowed Núñez Ocasio and her colleagues to zoom out and simulate #globalmoisture and then zoom in to see how that would interact with localized weather events that lead to the formation of tropical cyclones..." #climate #climatescience #climatechange Continue reading
