China's consumer price inflation rose by 0.2% in June from a year ago, missing expectations, while producer prices fell in-line with forecasts.
CNBC International’s Post
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China's annual inflation rate edged down to 0.2% in June 2024 from 0.3% in the prior two months, falling short of market estimates of 0.4%. It was the fifth straight month of consumer inflation but the lowest print since March, as food prices dropped for the 12th month. Meanwhile, producer prices shrank 0.8% yoy, extending falls for the 21st month.
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China's inflation data for July indicates a slight improvement from June. The Consumer Price Index dropped 0.3% YoY but increased 0.2% from June. This CPI decline was less than expected, the first drop since early 2021. Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 4.4% YoY, better than June's 5.4% decline but worse than forecasted. Falling pork prices caused CPI to drop, while tourism costs rose. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.8% YoY. Economist Bruce Pang predicts producer prices will recover before consumer prices due to falling pork prices and a high base effect. China's weak consumer demand since the pandemic persists, raising deflation concerns. Oxford Economics forecasts a 0.5% CPI growth and a 3.5% PPI fall this year. China reported significant declines in exports and imports in July, attributed to both commodity price drops and actual volume declines. #China #ChineseCPI #CPI #Economicdata #Economics
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Something has to change here or there will be a reason China emulates Japan. China’s Consumer Price Index ("CPI") rose a meager 0.1% year-over-year in March after reporting a 0.7% growth in February. The market forecast was for a 0.4% increase. That's not a good sign while much of the rest of the world fights inflation. Chinese overall CPI inflation came in at -1.0% over the month in March versus February’s 1.0% rise, much worse than the 0.5% decline expected. China’s Producer Price Index ("PPI") fell 2.8% year-over-year in March 2024, compared with a 2.7% drop seen previously. While the actual data matched expectations for a 2.8% decrease in the reported period, disinflation is not the solution China is looking for.
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China's consumer inflation cooled more than expected in March. China's March Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year, falling below the 0.4% expectation. At the same time, the CPI for the month of March decreases by 1.0% from the previous month. The core consumer prices, deducting food and energy prices, increased by 0.6% yoy in March, slowing from the prior 1.2%. Producer prices continued to fall in March, falling by 2.8 percent compared to the previous year. #inflation #china #cpi #interestrates #ppi
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China’s consumer prices fell 0.5 per cent year on year in November, the sharpest decline in three years as the world’s second-largest economy grapples with worsening deflation. Consumer prices dropped by more than the 0.2 per cent decline forecast by a Bloomberg survey of economists and exceeded October’s fall of 0.2 per cent. Producer prices, which are measured at factory gates and heavily driven by the cost of commodities and raw materials, dropped by 3 per cent and have remained in negative territory for the past year.
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China’s disinflationary trend worsened in November, with consumer prices falling at their fastest pace in three years, while producer prices remained in contraction for a fourteenth consecutive month. The Index fell 0.5% month-on-month in November, weaker than expectations for a drop of 0.1%, and also worsened from a 0.1% contraction seen in October. This has dented Yuan this morning and it now trades 7.1980. Yuan INR is at 11.5865 and may dip further towards 11.54 as Yuan depreciates further. Rupee opened at 83.39. Ideally in a situation like this Rupee should have depreciated on the pretext of maintaining export competitiveness. However RBI stands tall as of now. The likely range for the day is 83.35 to 83.43.
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Key insights: China’s CPI was flat in Sep. PPI also experienced a 2.5% deline year-on-year but it marks the narrowest drop since March. What else this week: IMF revised down China's growth forecast to 5 percent for 2023 (still in line with government growth forecast) In Australia, Westpac Consumer Sentiment rose 2.9% in Octorber and NAB Business Confidence remained above average at +11 index points in September 👍
China's Sept consumer prices flat, factory deflation persists
reuters.com
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China slipped into deflation with CPI contracting -0.3% YoY. The combination of consumer and producer prices deflation underscores weak domestic demand. But arguably the contraction in CPI in July is driven mostly by food inflation (pork CPI -26% YoY) and base effect, while services inflation such as travel and leisure actually quite strong (which is what you would expect after the reopening). China goods inflation is quite weak as consumers switch from spending on goods to services – this is an observable trend across the globe. China producer price deflation will have implications on inflation in the rest of the world, as China is a key exporter of consumer products from clothes to electronics. For instance, good prices’ contributions to inflation have come down significantly across major economies, the problem is services inflation. We doubt China will remain trapped in a deflationary spiral, as the recovery is in progress despite being disappointing. China’s official growth target for 2023 is about 5%, while consensus is expecting 5.2%. Despite worsening debt and demographics, it is premature to fear China will be like Japan as China still has the room to urbanise, a rising share of middle class and intention for more stimulus. Delighted to be on BBC News this morning to discuss this. Also was on Newstalk to discuss the latest business headlines, including WeWork and Novo Nordisk. You can listen back here: https://lnkd.in/eyu6mK35 #ChinaCPI #Chinainflation #Chinadeflation #BBC #Newstalk #inflation #deflation #China #tvinterview RBC Brewin Dolphin
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JUST IN: China's consumer prices declined at the fastest speed in 15 years in January. CPI fell 0.8% in January on an annual basis, more than the median estimate for a 0.5% decline in a Reuters poll. This was its fourth straight decline and its biggest drop since 2009. Meanwhile, #china’s PPI fell 2.5% in January from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics reported Thursday, slightly better than expectations for a 2.6% decline.
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