#AI #predictions vs. #Betting odds
At the beginning of yesterday’s The Championships, Wimbledon Men’s final, the #AI based predictions were spot on predicting that #Alcaraz had almost a 50% better chance of winning than #Djokovic
Compare this with the bookies betting odds (with millions at stake), that only marginally favored Alcaraz (by 15%).
What could explain the big difference between the two?
My guess is that the AI model is likely placing more emphasis on recent performance data and statistical analysis, while the betting system must be balancing this with historical performance and other intangible and human sentiment factors.
Let’s dig a little deeper into the potential reasons why AI might have predicted a higher chance of winning for Alcaraz:
1. Recent performance and form – Alcaraz’s superior record in 2024 (33-6) vs. Djokovic (22-7).
2. 2024 titles – Alcaraz 3 vs Djokovic 0.
3. 2024 Grass court performance – Alcaraz has a slightly better record on grass (8-1 with one title) vs. Djokovic (6-1 with no titles on grass).
4. Return game – Alcaraz has a significantly better return game on grass (35.7% overall, 32.5% on grass); Djokovic (30.8% overall, 23.7% on grass).
5. Age factor – 16 yr gap – The AI may be favoring the younger player in a potentially long and grueling match (Their past few head to head matches have been long and hard fought).
6. Injury and recent surgery - Novak had a knee surgery just 4 weeks ago, which could have been a factor in the AI algo.
On the other hand, the bookies’ betting odds only marginally favored Alcaraz. Let’s examine why:
1. Djokovic's historical performance – As an all time great and multiple-time Wimbledon champion, bettors were likely giving more weight to his experience and past success.
2. Service game strength – Djokovic's service game winning percentage on grass (89.0%) is higher than Alcaraz's (84.0%), which could have been be a significant factor not fully accounted for by the AI.
3. Human factors – Betting odds typically incorporate factors like public perception and historical betting patterns, which the AI system likely did not consider.
This could explain the discrepancy between the AI prediction and the betting odds.
#wimbledon #sport #analytics #datascience #tennis
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1moJordan Volpe, see here! competitive rowers have their place in SaaS edtech. The men's eight final is tomorrow early morning. Go USA! You mentioned a connection to the Italy team? Did they win silver in the lightweight double sculls?