Biofuel transition pains: Biofuels are considered the sustainable alternative to gasoline and jet fuel in the hard-to-decarbonize transportation sector. But prices for #biodiesel and #sustainableaviationfuels (SAF) have come under pressure in oversupplied markets as production from #biofuel companies has outpaced sluggish demand. As a result, this week Shell paused the construction of Europe’s biggest biofuel plant in Rotterdam (which converts cooking oil and animal fats into SAF and biodiesel). Similarly, last month BP has also paused the planning of two biodiesel plants and newly assessed three planned projects. Finally, Neste gave a profit warning in May lowering the 2024 full-year sales margin guidance.
Share prices of Shell and bp are not affected by these market woes as biofuels are just one of many decarbonization strategies for the oil majors and their valuations are still entirely driven by their core oil & gas operations. In contrast, biofuel “pure plays”, such as Neste in Europe and Darling Ingredients in the USA, have suffered from oversupplied biofuel markets in 2024 (see upper chart). As a result, pure play biofuel companies have finished the first half of 2024 as the second worst energy transition theme, just a tad less worse than #solar equipment companies, which plunged even more as solar prices and margins have also suffered from oversupplied markets that are flooded by Chinese solar companies (see lower chart, and my recent solar post). #energy
Such great insight! Thank you for sharing.