Grow Schools’ Post

I've been warning about this for years. As of 2024, the fertility rate in the United States is 1.64. The fertility rate is a somewhat difficult number to measure, but can roughly be thought of as the number of children an average woman will give birth to over the course of their lifetime. For a population to remain stable, you need 2.1 children per woman. The population of the US is still increasing, primarily on the basis of the Millennials, which followed a pattern similar to but more muted than the Baby Boomers. The growth rate is the first derivative of the population and is still (barely positive), but the growth acceleration rate, the second derivative, shifted negative about fifteen years ago. Not counting immigration, the US population will peak in about 2040, about 15 years ahead of what was predicted at the turn of the century. Immigration is likely to continue for some time after that, but by 2050 or thereabouts, the same phenomenon will be hitting immigration rates, and it is likely that we'll see signs of that by as soon as 2037 or so. What's worth noting, however, is that immigration for the most part is concentrated in a few key areas - around the southern border with Mexico and northwards to about Colorado, along Florida and the Gulf Coast, and various population groups that are facing wars or similar actions (the number of Ukranians emigrating to the US, mostly the elderly and children) has spiked, not surprisingly). In general, recent immigrants don't immediately impact schools, though the next generation generally is schooled. In many parts of the country, where immigration is usually not an immediate factor, the birth rate differential of -0.46 births is already being felt, with it predicted to exceed -0.5 births within the next decade. This rate of decline would be faster except that woman are having children later in life as in vitro fertilization becomes more widely used, but because this is such a slowly changing number, there is still an open question about how significant the latter effect is. Regardless, the upshot of all of this is that we are looking at a demographic shift that is due to several factors all pointing to a long term (multigenerational) stabilization (and ultimately decline) in population that is already affecting our schools, our workplaces and ultimately our senior years. As with other crises, the effects have occurred slowly at first, but are now becoming noticeable. We probably can't change anything in any meaningful way as far as stopping this (nor, to be honest, would this decline necessarily be a bad thing for humanity) but it does mean that we need to start adapting our institutions to recognize that the status is going to be increasingly non-quo, and that if we expect things to remain the same, we will be guaranteed nothing but disappointment.

"AMERICA HAS TOO MANY SCHOOLS" was the Wall Street Journal Headline. While the quality of education in urban schools has declined significantly, despite graduating most students, parents, when possible, have opted for the positive outcomes of homeschooling; & private schools to a much lesser extent. Latest U.S. Data: (1) There are 3.7 million homeschool students in the U.S.; (2) Homeschool students outperform institutional school students academically. (3) The average cost of homeschooling is $700-$1,800 per student annually; e.g. unlike the $29-$30,000 per student at Chicago Public Schools; & (4) The top reason for homeschooling is a concern about school environment. All parents (urban, suburban & rural) are intelligent in knowing something is very wrong when their kids graduate high school but are functionally illiterate. Where parents fail, given ability to elect school boards, they seem to vote the same people to office not holding them accountable. There very well may be too many schools. But; when possible, parents are making wise choices that benefit their children, culture, & civilization. Parents know best; not politicians or elitists.

I think it’s inaccurate to surmise that urban schools are empty because of low birth rates, which in turn is the reason for parents to move elsewhere. It’s simply not the case. Parents do not move because of not having children. They move in search of better job opportunities. After the pandemic, inperson jobs fell precipitously. Remote jobs began to gain traction, and parents without the requisite skills began to feel the pain. They have been left with no alternative but to move, move along with their children. There is your problem — the absence of jobs! Lawmakers can stabilize this population by creating jobs, and by offering opportunities to retrain low skilled urban parents for the new digital economy. That’s what would keep them in their school districts, and their children in their schools. This is one way to curb the outflow of kids from urban school districts.

Maybe America has too many of the "wrong" types of schools. Instead of indoctrinating students, maybe more schools should go back to focusing on delivering tangible vocational skills that can lead to a certificate in a trade and immediately gain employment afterwards. The shift from vocational education to a college based one was short-sighted and a huge mistake. Yes, manufacturing went overseas in the 80s; however, there was still a need for many vocations. Instead, the shift to promoting a 4 year degree for everyone resulted in administrative bloat at colleges. Administrator employment greatly outpaced faculty growth and student enrollment. As always, it was all about the money. The good news is that more young people are seeing through the charade and are choosing to save money and learn a trade. This new shift should have a ripple effect and bring back the vocational education platform that is sorely needed. This, in turn, will help urban youth gain skills, meaningful employment, and solid compensation. #education #trades #vocationalschool #schools

This is one of the best discussions of the impact of declining enrollment on schools I've seen lately, and it does a good job of balancing the pros for student experience when schools are smaller with the fiscal realities of an enrollment-based funding system. But one factor often goes ignored in these discussions: as enrollment declines, we have more English learners and students with disabilities. Weighted student formulas should offset this, but does the math really math when you need a certain number of set positions to have a functioning school? Particularly when you need social workers, hard-to-staff teachers, and occupational therapists?

In its 30th year, Colorado's school choice law provides parents the freedom to select any public school in the state, offering diverse educational options for students; however, acceptance depends on classroom capacity and is subject to different deadlines and criteria set by individual districts, with transportation logistics and the style of education being important considerations for parents. 📲 Full Article - https://lnkd.in/gHUiDD77 

Coming to you live from the Illinois School Counselor Association Conference in Tinsley Park. At the conference? Be sure to waltz over to the CFC table and do the following: 1) Say hello to Demetrius and Bernie. 2) Take all their candy. 3) Sign up for the college sweatshirt raffle. 4) Learn about how the new FAFSA changes affect college planning. 5) Learn how you can help your parents pay for college. 6) Walk away in triumph. Learn more about what we do for school counselors https://hubs.li/Q028qZJ50

In 1990 I gave my oath to defend the United States from enemies, both foreign and domestic, when I joined the United States Marine Corps. I thought those days were over, but nothing would be further from the truth. Today, I restate my oath to my country, county, area, teachers, parents, and students. You have my word that I will work hard to earn your confidence as a Santa Clara County Board of Education Trustee. I will do this in at least four ways: 1. Policy Impact Assessment of Federal and State policy on our county public schools. 2. Inform constituents about upcoming county policies that may include state guidance (not law) so you can be informed about how it potentially impacts the parent-teacher partnership and your district. 3. When a policy is passed, I will use every available tool to make sure you are informed. 4. I will vote, "no" on every policy that threatens fragile parent-teacher partnerships- the bedrock of student success. The students in our public schools can only flourish if you voice your concerns. I can't do it, the Board can't do it, but I can enable you to do so by providing meaningful oversight as policy is being contemplated. Let's get started. Vote Shane Lewis for Santa Clara County Board of Education Trustee Area 4

Over the next week, I will be posting a series of videos detailing the state of public education in Kentucky and how this year's General Assembly has the opportunity to get our profession steered back on the right track. Today's video will feature some key statistics on the current state of the teaching profession in our state and pose you with the question "Who will teach our children when all the teachers are gone?"

At Saint Louis Sudbury School, students are free to ask questions, learn from, and hang out with students and staff of all ages. Sudbury model school graduates often comment about how they are comfortable talking with their professors, supervisors, and co-workers of different ages. When have you worked with a team who were all the same age? This is a great behind the scenes moment of a younger student asking for help about possibly changing a school rule. He wanted to know about the wording of the current rule, how to make a motion in School Meeting to change it, and help writing the item on the School Meeting agenda. Are you interested in exploring Self-Directed Education in a democratic learning community for your child? Want to see your child reignite their love for learning? Provide them with an opportunity of time and space to discover themselves and prioritize their well-being? Schedule a tour of Saint Louis Sudbury School this spring, consider a Visiting Week in the spring or summer, and enroll in the fall! https://lnkd.in/gfpwApCX (Note: a few spots remain for this current School Year.)