Irregular Warfare Center (IWC)’s Post

NEW | Senior Iranian military officials have continued to suggest that they will carefully calibrate Iran’s response to Israel's killing of senior IRGC commanders in Syria. This careful approach aims to avoid a direct war with Israel. This approach does not exclude an eventual Iranian retaliation, however. Read today's update from CTP and Institute for the Study of War: https://lnkd.in/edGybMHs

My new article is out today. Here are a few points I highlighted in the article: 1) Although nations and regional institutions do not recognise the military juntas at high-level meetings, the European Union and ASEAN have yet to host any representatives from the NUG. 2) NUG is not against the dialogue but has structural limitations. 3) All dialogue efforts risk failing Without a shared objective and identified goal. Thanks, Emma and Allison, for the reviews and comments on this piece. https://lnkd.in/dBc9XBKx

My latest analysis tries to portray the background to what looks like an almost inevitable all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in the upcoming weeks. While the US is immersed in its domestic political turmoil, the chances are slim for an American reliable military threat which is highly needed to deter Hezbollah from counting its risky brinkmanship policy. I hope you will find it insightful.

As part of our global monitoring, here is a very good update on Irans activities in Iraq. Iranian-backed Iraqi militias appear divided on whether to resume attacks targeting US forces. Emirati state media reported that Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah (KH) is advocating for the resumption of attacks but that some militia leaders disagree with KH, citing unidentified Iraqi political and security sources https://lnkd.in/e7myYfRp

The Middle East Policy Council has recently published my article on the role of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in the Israel-Gaza war and US-Iran tensions. This umbrella organization has established itself as a powerful military and political force in Iraq since 2003, frequently clashing with U.S. forces in the country. The PMF grew out of a network of pro-Iranian militias and political parties dating back to the 1980s and has become a core component of Iranian regional strategy. Their stance towards the United States has alternated between detente and confrontation based on political circumstances in Baghdad and relations between Washington and Tehran. The Israel-Gaza war has seen the PMF expand its attacks against U.S. & Israeli targets while attempting to avoid an over-escalation that would endanger its interests. With growing concern over regional escalations, the PMF will continue to demand attention as an indispensable actor in Iraq and within broader US-Iranian tensions. 

Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi has reaffirmed that the Iranian military is ready to counter any potential Israeli aggression, despite international calls for restraint. The tension between Iran and Israel has escalated, with both sides exchanging threats of retaliation following Iran's recent attack on Israel. Check out the link for more. #theirishinsider . . . · #iran #iranmissile #iranianmissiles #iranianarmedforces #military #conflict #irish #ireland #irish #ireland

This subject of withdrawal has been swirling in the air for the last month or so. It also looks like a withdrawal from Syria is on the table. No doubt all of the attacks on U.S. bases has hastened this reconsideration of U.S. policy. Note that these attacks were by Iraqi militias supported by Iran. #iraq #unitedstates #withdrawal #military #forces #coalition #attacks #policy #syria #militias #iran https://lnkd.in/eTn_3sX2

A regional war in the Middle-East can result in broken alliances and radical shifts of geopolitical alignments. "The dilemma for NATO is that Israel enjoys a special-status with the alliance while Turkey is a member state [emphasis added].It is dialectical because the U.S. commitment to Israel’s security and defense is ironclad, yet Turkey’s intervention and the subsequent Israeli response thereto invokes NATO’s Article 5—eo ipso obliging the U.S., the UK, and other NATO members to defend Turkey. Simultaneously defending the two warring parties presents a practical impossibility, even for the United States." #Israel #Turkey #NATO #MiddleEast

Biden and Sudani will need to navigate the next phase of the U.S. military presence in #Iraq, write Institute experts Dana Stroul and Bilal A. Wahab. Here's more on how both leaders can deepen this strategic partnership: #middleeast #mideast #potus #biden #military #security #cooperation #analysis

Read our latest article on Iran's previous practice of arming militias, its allies in the region, which Tehran describes as the Axis of Resistance, their history, and their military capabilities, which will play a major role if Iran launches an attack against Israel, regardless of any escalation. #Gaza #Iran #Israel #MiddleEast