It is astounding how long it took western OEMs & their battery partners to realize ubiquitous EV adoption will only happen with less expensive, safer cathode. I maintained several years ago that carbonate would be the lithium chemical most in demand through 2030. The logic was that LFP would be the best option for low & mid priced EVs. Albemarle Corporation was probably the leader in calling the future trend incorrectly. Just look at their corporate decks from a few years ago. Elon using LFP for Model 3s should have been enough of a signal. In any case, the future of brine assets has never looked better. Hydroxide is still needed but in a much more limited way than most western OEMs thought. Lithium chemical and cathode capacity plans will be modified to respond to economic reality soon.
Mercedes and Stellantis pause EU battery factories, may switch to #LFP cells (electrek.co) Not surprising really! With most OEMs doubling down on LFP in base models, the announced gigafactory capacity in Europe was looking far too NCM heavy. The vast majority of the announced capacity is yet to start construction, so in some ways it makes sense to reassess and pivot to LFP. But NOT TO PAUSE. There is no time to waste deciding if LFP is the way to go. Chinese brands are already flooding the market with high quality, affordable EVs. To support LFP cell plants we will also need LFP cathode production capacity in Europe, which is currently lacking. In the absence of LFP CAM production, Europe will have to rely on imports. So currently, the net impact on demand for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in Europe is unchanged, hydroxide is still set to be the overwhelmingly dominant #lithium product in Europe. If more potential cell producers pivot to LFP, the CAM capacity will have to follow. Will we see touted lithium hydroxide refineries in Europe pivot to lithium carbonate production instead?
I always & still beleive for Lithium based Cathode , LFP will be material of choice for rest of the world ( now may be LFPMn) . US , depends on EV cost vs range anxiety but eventually it may be LFP as Tesla starts faltering & LFP tech keep improving
Florian Wolf
4mo
Very true. According to survey's the key customer holdbacks for purchasing EVs is upfront vehicle cost and battery durability. Both can be solved with LFP (and LFMP as next generation material).
Petr Palkovsky
4mo
Joe it’s a good thing that certain clay lithium/borate deposit can produce hydroxide or carbonate! Infact, in some cases, sustainable and CO2 neutral lithium! A true sustainable bi-product of the sodium borates produced utilizing hot water. N’est pas! Thanks for the opportune platform today! I owe ya one…
Daniel Taylor
4mo
So true Joe Lowry and Jordan Roberts. There are perhaps some interesting conundrums for West Australian lithium hydroxide plants to contemplate.
John A Hunsaker
4mo
Amen Joe; EV OEMs are slow learners.
Graphene Energy Materials / Battery R&D
4moI don’t understand how the pause is associated with Cathode chemistry… Mixing and coating uses the same machinery.