Philip Sim, PBM’s Post

Interesting read as politicos attempt to understand what happened in the recently completed EU elections and what it means for future policy making. It’s clear that the anti-establishment right is rising but…”In one sense, then, the story of European politics is that it remains astonishingly national.” The center largely held. The populist right gained seats and the Greens lost seats - EU-wide. #EuropeanUnion #2024elections #politics

This scenario is highlighted in the latest Euronews Super Poll from the Euronews Poll Centre, one of the latest before the European election on June 8-9. According to the poll the centre-right and the far-right are going to win, with the liberal-democrats likely falling down considerably across the bloc. The first party in Europe should be once again the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), followed by the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D), closely followed by the right-wing nationalists of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). The far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) is also set to win big, thanks to its probable exploit in France, where Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) is leading the polls. Also, Dutch ID member Party for Freedom (PVV), Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) and Romania’s Right Alternative (AD) are leading the polls in their countries. https://lnkd.in/gESsnNyU

My latest article explores the political landscape, highlighting the rise of nationalist movements and the challenges faced by centrist parties. Will the European People's Party maintain its lead? How might this impact key figures like Ursula von der Leyen and crucial policy decisions? Join the conversation and dive into the intricacies shaping the future of the EU. #euelections #EuropeanPolitics #politicalinsights https://lnkd.in/gKrEK2U4

Because the more people vote, the stronger democracy becomes. That’s how I did it. Voting has never been more important and easier. Let’s use our voices against populism, hate, and shortterm thinking. Democracy is a precious gift passed on to us from previous generations. They aspired towards it and fought for it. We should never take democracy for granted. It is up to us to maintain it, to make it stronger and pass it on to the generations to come. If you are an EU citizen, you have the right to vote in these elections, together with around 360 million Europeans. And your vote matters. Use your vote to decide what the European Union 🇪🇺 should focus on over the next five years. To help change the world you live in and to tackle the global challenges that surround us. To have a say on the future of European democracy. #europeanelections Thomas Müller Ditlev Engel Frank Thelen Herbert Diess Carsten Maschmeyer Tina Mueller Christian Klein Dieter Zetsche

Europeans head to the polls this week in closely watched elections that threaten to shake the bloc’s traditionally mainstream political landscape. From June 6 to 9, around 400 million people across the EU’s 27 member states will be eligible to vote for the next 720 members of European Parliament (MEPs). Far-right, populist parties are set to see significant gains, as a rising tide of euroskepticism ripples through the European Union, with major implications for the bloc’s future policy agenda, legislation and broader foreign policy. “We are seeing a rise in populist sentiment both in Europe and globally, which might result in the most right-wing European Parliament in history,” @Tim Adams Adams, president and CEO of the Institute of International Finance, told CNBC via email. Read the full story here: #EuropeanUnion #elections #EUelections #EuropeanParliament #politics #farright #populism

Sweeping gains for far-right and Eurosceptic parties could allow a populist right-wing coalition to take control of the European Parliament this year for the first time, a new study finds. According to the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) thinktank, Eurosceptic populists should top the polls in nine EU countries - including Austria, Belgium, France and the Netherlands - during the 6-9 June European elections. They should also come second or third in a further nine countries. The far-right surge could allow a coalition of Christian democrats, conservatives and the radical far-right to piece together a majority and steer EU policy for the first time, the study finds. The new coalition, which would replace the existing grand coalition of centrist groups, is "likely to oppose ambitious EU action to tackle climate change" and slam the brakes on the bloc’s green transition, the report warns. https://lnkd.in/dKGP2bwR

My birthday made history, marking a historic landslide victory for the far right in the Austrian Parliamentary election. A deeper look into the voters' sentiment polls provides some important context. If we look at non far-right voters' coalition preferences, there is little to no support for a FPÖ government. Thus, while the FPÖ is correct in claiming victory, it is also fair to say that close to 61% of Austrian voters reject FPÖ rule (if we include voters stating FPÖ as their preferred coalition partner). Parties will now come together to form coalitions and this process is as unpredictable as it is important in a multiparty system. We will see how parties interpret voters' will. It is intriguing to ponder what US politics would look like in a multiparty coalition system. In our research we study the effect of elections, polarization and populism on firms. A topic that seems to be getting more important everywhere.

#Decency NEEDS Anchoring, Coaching, Networking, Resiliency...especially in 🇩🇪Germany: Read Financial Times Journalist Sam Jones' article: Germany’s political fragmentation ‘frighteningly similar’ to 1930s https://lnkd.in/ebZND7wp #MainPoints: ‣ Germany's voters are abandoning mainstream parties and flocking to fringe and radical movements ‣ Almost one in five Germans say they will now vote for a fringe party, according to Forsa, compared with one in eight in the 2021 federal election ‣ the AfD’s core support base remains strong — particularly in eastern German states, where more than one in three still say they will vote for the party ‣ in upcoming state elections in Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia this autumn, the AfD is expected to come first, putting it in a position to lead regional governments ‣ “Due to the dissatisfaction with the incumbent federal government, which will most likely continue until 2025, the fragmentation of the German party system is likely to continue,” the Forsa Institute said in its analysis

This has already been said in better ways and by better people than me. But, as I feel really strongly about this, I’m posting anyway. Personally, I think interference of any of our political parties in another country’s elections is abhorrent. People with an interest in politics who go over as individuals for election/campaign specific activism in their own spare time is understandable, though even that makes me uncomfortable. A mass grouping of UK political activists targeting US battleground states in support of one particular Presidential candidate smacks too strongly of interference in foreign elections and feels completely undemocratic. It’s not our job to tell other people in other countries how to vote and what their priorities should be, particularly when we neither live in those countries nor are impacted directly by the policies of that government. I equally deplore it when foreign political parties do the same over here. I have my opinions on global affairs, as do most people these days. However, it’s the responsibility of people living, working and being part of those countries to decide which way their country should go. The precedent is dangerous. It’s Americans’ jobs to do the legwork in this election, not Brits’ or any other country’s. It effectively sets enough of a precedent to allow Russians, Chinese, or North Koreans (as an example) to come in and campaign for their preferred candidate. All elections indirectly impact other countries. The specific concerns about this one still doesn’t provide a good enough reason. The line must be drawn somewhere, and it should be drawn here. Edit: I can also understand individuals or potentially even other community groups going over, but those involved in politics in this country - or in any other country - need to steer a million miles away from being involved in another country’s elections. Particularly when that specific party is in power. Side note, I wasn’t a fan of Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage or Liz Truss publicly attending Republican Party conferences either, even though they weren’t in office.

Three thoughts on right-wing and populist politics and the European Parliament: 1.        Their influence goes beyond the number of seats won and how they will use them future. The right has already succeeded in dragging the policies and positions of the centre-right and centre closer to it in terms of policies they put forward in the campaigns.  2.        The right wing’s most influential delegations are split between different political groups. Some have a ‘detoxification’ agenda for national politics that doesn’t support enhanced right-wing collaboration in Brussels. This leads to a complex picture. The AfD appears ready to try and rejoin the ID group minus Maximilian Krah which would have important funding benefits for the German party. It is questionable whether Marine Le Pen would accept this considering she now has eyes on the Parliamentary elections in France. Giorgia Meloni is probably best placed to maximise influence where her party is now; in the ECR group.  3.        Two of the top three largest national delegations in the European Parliament are now from the right: France’s Rassemblement National (No. 1 with 30 seats) and Fratelli d'Italia (No. 3 with 24 seats) who sandwich the CDU/CSU (29 seats). These delegations are a useful platform in daily parliamentary business for disruption, or the extraction of concessions from the mainstream, depending on the situation or day of the week.