Karen Gilchrist’s Post

Interesting read as politicos attempt to understand what happened in the recently completed EU elections and what it means for future policy making. It’s clear that the anti-establishment right is rising but…”In one sense, then, the story of European politics is that it remains astonishingly national.” The center largely held. The populist right gained seats and the Greens lost seats - EU-wide. #EuropeanUnion #2024elections #politics

Three thoughts on right-wing and populist politics and the European Parliament: 1.        Their influence goes beyond the number of seats won and how they will use them future. The right has already succeeded in dragging the policies and positions of the centre-right and centre closer to it in terms of policies they put forward in the campaigns.  2.        The right wing’s most influential delegations are split between different political groups. Some have a ‘detoxification’ agenda for national politics that doesn’t support enhanced right-wing collaboration in Brussels. This leads to a complex picture. The AfD appears ready to try and rejoin the ID group minus Maximilian Krah which would have important funding benefits for the German party. It is questionable whether Marine Le Pen would accept this considering she now has eyes on the Parliamentary elections in France. Giorgia Meloni is probably best placed to maximise influence where her party is now; in the ECR group.  3.        Two of the top three largest national delegations in the European Parliament are now from the right: France’s Rassemblement National (No. 1 with 30 seats) and Fratelli d'Italia (No. 3 with 24 seats) who sandwich the CDU/CSU (29 seats). These delegations are a useful platform in daily parliamentary business for disruption, or the extraction of concessions from the mainstream, depending on the situation or day of the week.

My latest article explores the political landscape, highlighting the rise of nationalist movements and the challenges faced by centrist parties. Will the European People's Party maintain its lead? How might this impact key figures like Ursula von der Leyen and crucial policy decisions? Join the conversation and dive into the intricacies shaping the future of the EU. #euelections #EuropeanPolitics #politicalinsights https://lnkd.in/gKrEK2U4

Social media usage (read X) created chaos during the political debate between new Prime Minister Dick Schoof and his first Cabinet on one side, and Members of Parliament (Tweede Kamer) on the other side. Undermining trust in democratic processes and manipulating the public opinion fits right in the #Kremlin's playbook. This playbook that has been around for many years contains a strategic approach to influencing European #elections through a combination of economic leverage, disinformation, and covert operations. #Russia's tactics aim to weaken democratic institutions and foster instability by exploiting governance gaps. Key methods include economic penetration, media manipulation, and high-level political patronage (cultivating relationships with political figures to sway policy decisions). Either the Russians are really good at what they want to achieve, or the Dutch have a cabinet and parliament filled with people not fit for duty. #focus #backontrack Let us all develop robust defenses to protect our democratic integrity, in the Netherlands, Europe and the rest of the word. We will need it. #kabinet #tweedekamer #democratie #ondermijning #spionage #rusland

NEW PB LONG READ⬇️🇵🇱 The recent election in Poland marked a critical juncture in both the country's and the EU’s political landscape. Dr Ania Skrzypek of FEPS Europe asks, to what extent can progressives be optimistic about the defeat of the Law and Justice (PiS) party? https://lnkd.in/eTqajauZ #poland #generalelection #eu #politics #government

My newest article is published on the East Asia Forum. With the ruling party's defeat in the recent National Assembly election, how has President Yoon responded so far to the prospect of continuing a divided government? Has he been successful? "Yoon must similarly balance compromise and confrontation with the opposition. It remains to be seen whether he can effectively communicate his renewed commitment to cooperation with the legislature and societal groups, while successfully defending his administration from what he perceives as politically motivated attacks from the opposition." "If Yoon fails, he risks a years-long lame-duck presidency. But if he convinces the public that the opposition is more responsible for the partisan gridlock, the shift in public opinion could provide crucial leverage for his government to achieve meaningful political ‘wins’ — even in a divided government." https://lnkd.in/eiYN--Pd

Two weeks ago European Policy Centre's Corina Stratulat, together with Attila Kovacs, were kind enough to have me on a panel about the upcoming European Parliament elections. Below is the recording and 7 ideas I shared: 1. "European politics is increasingly resembling Eurovision, with alliances and performances that play into identity politics [rather than content]." 2. "The European Parliament, to its credit, is far better at communicating the get-out-the-vote campaign and engaging in global issues." 3. "We see an increasing distinction between those who question the system and those who are unhappy with the *decisions* of the system." 4. "We should not be stuck in our Brussels bubble but listen to the diverse trends, priorities, and voices of Europeans." 5. "Foreign policy, like Ukraine, shows a clear divide between some components of ID and ECR, e.g. the Polish Law and Justice party, which is relatively pro-Atlantic and pro-Ukraine [compared to some of its regional peers]." 6. "The severity of the problem with Russian [and other] interference is not properly understood or taken seriously enough even though it has massive implications for the EU's very existence." 7. "EU institutional reform is essential, especially decision-making reform, to make the EU more effective with [the possibility of an] expanding membership to 30+ countries."

https://lnkd.in/gZP-Sfaw I just read this thoughtful article on Unherd. It very much remains to be seen whether nationalist right-wing parties can translate their successes in the EU elections into similar gains in national polls. There have been past instances where voters vote one way (likely in protest) in the EU parliament voting, but go the other way when it comes to the national elections. Nonetheless, I do believe that this election marks something of a watershed moment. The old consensus that we have since at least the mid-1990s, with an ever more integrated global economy, one that seemed to have managed to survive upheavals in 1997 and 2008, may now be facing yet another challenge. That consensus that had contributed so much to human prosperity over the past quarter of a century may now face its sternest test yet. I have highlighted that many established institutions and companies are faced with ever more skeptical audiences in an ever more fragmented communications landscape. This makes building trust ever more difficult, let alone advocacy and support for the brand. As serious communications professionals, we must pay attention to this trend and think about how to rebuild that trust, especially if the brand we work for, or are helping for, is an old established one. How can it best survive in this period of change?

Because the more people vote, the stronger democracy becomes. That’s how I did it. Voting has never been more important and easier. Let’s use our voices against populism, hate, and shortterm thinking. Democracy is a precious gift passed on to us from previous generations. They aspired towards it and fought for it. We should never take democracy for granted. It is up to us to maintain it, to make it stronger and pass it on to the generations to come. If you are an EU citizen, you have the right to vote in these elections, together with around 360 million Europeans. And your vote matters. Use your vote to decide what the European Union 🇪🇺 should focus on over the next five years. To help change the world you live in and to tackle the global challenges that surround us. To have a say on the future of European democracy. #europeanelections Thomas Müller Ditlev Engel Frank Thelen Herbert Diess Carsten Maschmeyer Tina Mueller Christian Klein Dieter Zetsche

Radical” or “hard”-right parties already govern Italy and Hungary and are the dominant force in the new Dutch coalition, as well as being junior members of ruling coalitions in several other European countries. Now these parties are on track to send a record number of MEPs to Strasbourg, in part thanks to the deep inroads they have made among young voters. Hard-right parties are projected to win 184 of the 720 seats in the new parliament, according to the latest poll of polls for the Politico website — more than the 170 forecast for the European People’s Party, an alliance of centre-right national parties that has been the largest group in the chamber since 1999. Policy differences, especially over the war in Ukraine, have meant that they have hitherto sat in two rival groups, diluting their influence, but there are signs that this may change after the vote