Publyon EU’s Post

📣 One day left before our webinar on the French elections results! Despite the first round of the French legislative elections resulting in Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party overwhelming victory, the so-called “Republican dam” pushed back on the far-right wave at the second round last Sunday. The left-wing New Popular Front (NPF) clinched the first position by winning 182 seats in the France’s National Assembly composed of 577 seats. Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble coalition arrived second with 168 seats and National Rally third with 143 seats.   📌 As none of the political blocs were able to secure a majority, a so-called “hung parliament” is at sight. While a left-centrist coalition managed to stop the far-right to win the elections, the prospect of the two blocs to form a government is lacking substance as representatives of the NPF have already ruled out any alliance with the Macron and/or the right, refusing any "alliance of opposites" or any "arrangement".   ➡ What are the potential government coalition scenarios following the overhaul of the French political landscape? And what will be the subsequent impact at European level? Join our webinar as Viktoria Vajnai, Managing Partner at Publyon, Mathilde DEFARGES and Etienne BODARD, Co-founders of Blue Star Strategies, LLC, engage in a fireside chat on the French elections results and their impact n the future of the EU. REGISTER HERE 👉 https://lnkd.in/d_GgeX9m

European Elections 2024 Begin Today: A Significant Rightward Shift Expected: The 2024 European elections commence today, starting in the Netherlands, and will span across four days (June 6-9) in the EU’s 27 Member States. Over 400 million eligible citizens will vote to elect 720 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) in the tenth direct election since 1979. This election is expected to significantly shift the political landscape to the right, with populist and far-right parties predicted to gain substantial seats. The results will influence not only the European Parliament but also the future composition of the European Commission and the selection of the next European Council President. https://lnkd.in/eEVxc3M9

We would like to share two KAS reports analysing the elections. In both reports, our office contributed with information and expertise from Sweden, Finnland and Denmark. Firstly, the report „The European Elections from the Inside“ gives an overview of the election results in the 27 EU member states and provides background information including political developments before and during the elections. Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) Europe created this comprehensive and interesting report. It is now available in English and German: English version: https://lnkd.in/e_5rWhAz German version: https://lnkd.in/eJRqxhiH We also enjoyed to be part of another election report, this time with a focus on how inclusive and barrier-free the European elections are implemented in different countries. It is an important topic that highlights progress but also room for improvement. https://lnkd.in/eYfSSpQn

On the 2024 European Elections: While the elections have not led to a landslide shift to the right, there is a notable consolidation of far-right parties at the European level. Still, the pro-European centre is holding firm and maintains a majority. In their new Policy Brief, Jannik Jansen and Thu Nguyen argue that the results likely indicate by-and-large continuity in the #EuropeanParliament, including an ongoing shift to the right on contested issues due to a perforated ‘cordon sanitaire’. But the election results had heavily disruptive consequences on the national level, which in #France has triggered snap parliamentary elections. This will have pronounced impact on the balance of power in the (European) Council and on the #EU as a whole. Read it in full on our website: https://lnkd.in/eMTPWTDf The Policy Brief was published in parallel on Verfassungsblog: https://lnkd.in/ePkkSj5r

The results of the French legislative elections, while widely labeled as "surprising," were actually not surprising. Macron's supposed folly in calling early elections actually reflected a tough-minded political calculus, and his now confirmed conviction that there was a majority of French citizens, across a wide political spectrum, who were prepared to prioritize the defense of French democracy against the threat they saw from the far Right. We shouldn't draw too close an analogy between US and French politics, but those in the US who see democracy at stake in the November elections should draw some inspiration from Macron's tough-minded pragmatism. https://lnkd.in/e38dXqnt

French elections: Macron’s top officials divided on how to fight far-right – Euractiv French elections: Macron’s top officials divided on how to fight far-right https://lnkd.in/gEi-DZrE

🚨 Publication alert! Very happy to share my latest #EPRS briefing. It is the last in a series on the #1979 #elections and lessons for today. This briefing focuses on the relation between the election of and the powers attributed to the #EP. It shows that well into the 1970s, MEPs tried to de-couple organising direct elections from expanding EP powers. Their main fear was that demanding both simultaneously would be too much for Member States to swallow. Pursuing them separately was the thought the better strategy. Yet, by the end of the 1970s, MEPs increasingly pushed the idea of a virtuous circle of empowerment and elections. They developed this further after the 1979 elections, when a low(er than expected) voter turnout dictated a re-coupling of the issues in order to maintain momentum. The briefing concludes by connecting this historical debate to contemporary issues, highlighting how the question of Parliament's powers has become intimately connected with questions of democracy, representation and elections. Two other EPRS briefings on the 1979 elections include: - Political parties, voter mobilisation and the 1979 European elections - https://lnkd.in/evrkx5s2 - The European Parliament and the European citizen as voter - https://lnkd.in/eSPt5rXX

FRENCH LOWER HOUSE SNAP ELECTIONS - FIRST TAKE 1) French far-right has strong lead in France's 1st voting round. The National Rally (RN) was projected to get between 33% and 34.2% of the vote. The left-wing New Popular Front coalition was set to get between 28.5% and 29.6% and Macron’s centrist alliance between 21.5% and 22.4%.  2) The exit polls were in line with opinion polls ahead of the election, but provided little clarity on whether the RN will be able to form a government to "cohabit" with the pro-EU Macron after next Sunday's run-off. As projections show between 240 to 270 seats won at the second round, the RN could thus get a relative majority in Parliament. Le Pen party needs 289 seats for a majority in the second round French ballot. Bottom-line >>> The National Rally is likely to win the elections. Question is would it be a RELATIVE or ABSOLUTE majority. There are 3 possible outcomes: 1/ Absolute majority (Bardella as Prime Minister) Expect modest OAT-Bund spread widening and another (modest) downside leg for French equities (especially “national victims”) 2/ Minority majority / Hung parliament Expect a modest OAT-Bund spread widening and French equities stabilize  3/ Caretaker or Technical government  Expect a modest OAT-Bund spread tightening and French equities rebound (especially “national victims”). The euro is currently STRENGTHENING as Asia trading just started. This means that markets are now expecting a HUNG PARLIAMENT with no Prime Minister coming from Rassemblement National. Even of the party from Mrs Le Pen win the election, they will refuse to appoint Bardella as PM. This opens the door to a Prime Minster coming from the center or a technical one. This means political paralysis but markets can probably live with this...

Hungary’s ruling Fidesz-KDNP has won the country’s EU elections, securing 11 of 21 MEP seats, down from 13 seats gained in 2019. While Fidesz also performed well in the local elections, and has expanded its number of supporters in EU elections to two million, the arguable winner of Sunday’s double vote is the newly formed Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) of ex-government insider Péter Magyar. Having entered party politics only two months ago, TISZA secured nearly 30% of the popular vote on a turnout of 56%, gaining seven MEP seats and also emerging to prominence in the Budapest City Council elections. The party’s emergence came together with crumbling support for Hungary’s establishment opposition parties. Alongside Fidesz and TISZA, only the centre-left Democratic Coalition (DK) and the far-right Our Homeland will send MEPs to Brussels/Strasbourg of the 11 parties and alliances which ran in the EU election. No opposition party has reached 30% in popular support since Fidesz took power in 2010, meaning that TISZA is well placed to emerge as a strong challenger to PM Orbán’s rule in the 2026 parliamentary elections. However, it remains uncertain whether Magyar will be able to keep up the momentum behind his support. At the same time, support for the governing Fidesz remains stable, which is a remarkable development on its own for a party that has been in power for 14 years. See here for our full overview: https://lnkd.in/gHrRsMG4 Aretera will extensively cover the recent double elections in Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania. If you would like to learn more about the implications of these crucial electoral contests, please contact Dominik Istrate, Research Director for CEE at D.Istrate@AreteraPA.com