Publyon EU’s Post

📣 5 DAYS LEFT before our French elections webinar: 10 July, 14:00 - 15:00 CET! The first round of the French elections is over. Far-right National Rally (RN) and its potential future prime minister, Jordan Bardella, finished first with 33% of the vote, followed by the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance on 28% and President Macron’s centrist Together alliance on 20%. Now it's only a matter of days before the second round reveals how the future government of France might look like and its implications on the EU. What could happen on Sunday? ➡ A far-right Macron cohabitation in case the National Rally secures an absolute or relative majority. To try to avoid such scenario, in constituencies where a three-way run-off favoured the National Rally, centrist and left-wing candidates strategically dropped out for each other's benefit on the eve of the second round. ➡ A hung parliament, in case there is no absolute majority, and three unequal blocs emerge (National Rally, New Popular Front, Together). In this case, France could be led by a caretaker/technical government that handles the day-to-day business or by a government of national unity (excluding the National Rally), based on a majority of projects in the National Assembly. The final results are especially hard to predict as several unknown factors remain: the turnout rate, the compliance with voting instructions, and the actual transfer of votes. Would you like to witness how this unfolds with us? Join our webinar as Viktoria Vajnai, Managing Partner at Publyon, Mathilde DEFARGES and Etienne BODARD, Co-founders of Blue Star Strategies, LLC, engage in a 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗵 𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗶𝗿 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗘𝗨. REGISTER HERE 👉 https://lnkd.in/d_GgeX9m

We would like to share two KAS reports analysing the elections. In both reports, our office contributed with information and expertise from Sweden, Finnland and Denmark. Firstly, the report „The European Elections from the Inside“ gives an overview of the election results in the 27 EU member states and provides background information including political developments before and during the elections. Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) Europe created this comprehensive and interesting report. It is now available in English and German: English version: https://lnkd.in/e_5rWhAz German version: https://lnkd.in/eJRqxhiH We also enjoyed to be part of another election report, this time with a focus on how inclusive and barrier-free the European elections are implemented in different countries. It is an important topic that highlights progress but also room for improvement. https://lnkd.in/eYfSSpQn

On the 2024 European Elections: While the elections have not led to a landslide shift to the right, there is a notable consolidation of far-right parties at the European level. Still, the pro-European centre is holding firm and maintains a majority. In their new Policy Brief, Jannik Jansen and Thu Nguyen argue that the results likely indicate by-and-large continuity in the #EuropeanParliament, including an ongoing shift to the right on contested issues due to a perforated ‘cordon sanitaire’. But the election results had heavily disruptive consequences on the national level, which in #France has triggered snap parliamentary elections. This will have pronounced impact on the balance of power in the (European) Council and on the #EU as a whole. Read it in full on our website: https://lnkd.in/eMTPWTDf The Policy Brief was published in parallel on Verfassungsblog: https://lnkd.in/ePkkSj5r

European Elections 2024 Begin Today: A Significant Rightward Shift Expected: The 2024 European elections commence today, starting in the Netherlands, and will span across four days (June 6-9) in the EU’s 27 Member States. Over 400 million eligible citizens will vote to elect 720 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) in the tenth direct election since 1979. This election is expected to significantly shift the political landscape to the right, with populist and far-right parties predicted to gain substantial seats. The results will influence not only the European Parliament but also the future composition of the European Commission and the selection of the next European Council President. https://lnkd.in/eEVxc3M9

The results of the French legislative elections, while widely labeled as "surprising," were actually not surprising. Macron's supposed folly in calling early elections actually reflected a tough-minded political calculus, and his now confirmed conviction that there was a majority of French citizens, across a wide political spectrum, who were prepared to prioritize the defense of French democracy against the threat they saw from the far Right. We shouldn't draw too close an analogy between US and French politics, but those in the US who see democracy at stake in the November elections should draw some inspiration from Macron's tough-minded pragmatism. https://lnkd.in/e38dXqnt

Madagascar : Opposition Leaders Declare Intentions for Legislative and Communal Elections Antananarivo, 8th Febroary 2024 - In the wake of Tim or Tiko's announcement to participate in the forthcoming legislative and communal elections in Madagascar, a significant development unfolds within the opposition ranks. Other prominent opposition leaders, including Arb Madagascar led by Andry Raobelina and MMM (Malagasy Miara Miainga) led by Hajo Andrianainarivelo, have also declared their intent to partake in the upcoming electoral processes. Expressing readiness, these opposition leaders cite their financial preparedness for the upcoming elections, highlighting their decision to abstain from the presidential election, allowing them to allocate resources for the upcoming legislative and communal contests. In their official declarations, they emphasize their objective to secure more elected representatives, additional deputies, and mayors in the upcoming elections. This strategic move aims to strengthen their influence and representation across various levels of governance. Simultaneously, the ruling presidential party has signaled its preparedness to face this opposition challenge. Undoubtedly, they boast a robust nationwide presence and a substantial political infrastructure, showcasing their confidence in navigating the complex political landscape. ©️Follow us on the website https://ledefi.mg/ on the Linkedin page Le Defi Madagascar / on the YouTube channel Le Défi Madagascar

The European Parliament elections, held every five years, are a crucial component of the European Union’s democratic structure. These elections determine the 705 Members of the European Parliament who represent over 400 million eligible voters from the EU’s 27 member states. The elections are influenced by both national and European issues. While MEPs are elected to represent European citizens and legislate on EU-wide matters, national political dynamics often heavily influence voter behavior. Consequently, the elections serve as a barometer for public sentiment towards both national governments and the EU itself. The European Parliament’s role has grown significantly since its first direct elections in 1979. It now co-legislates with the Council of the European Union on a wide range of policy areas, from the single market to environmental regulations. This increased power has heightened the stakes of the elections, as the composition of the Parliament can significantly impact EU legislation and its direction. All in all, the European Parliament elections are a vital democratic exercise that not only shape the legislative agenda of the EU but also reflect broader political currents across Europe. The outcomes of these elections have profound implications for the future direction of the European project and I strongly recommend every fellow European citizen to vote on 9 June 🇪🇺🇪🇺🇪🇺

The 2024 European elections, an election with several issues: Despite the fight of pro-Europeans, far-right parties are gaining strength in Europe. A notable fact: a proximity to Russia, a displayed xenophobia, a network of conspiracy theorists, Euroscepticism, and anti-Americanism as a political ideology. Beyond the rise of the far right, the architecture of European and national politics in many countries will change. After the first results, the Belgian Prime Minister resigned, and the French President dissolved the French parliament. A difficult decision and a risk for the party in power. The next four weeks will define the French political landscape, whose government could be led by the presidential camp or cohabitation (the opposition). As in all free, credible, and transparent elections, voting remains the people's best choice to elect or sanction leaders.

🚨 Publication alert! Very happy to share my latest #EPRS briefing. It is the last in a series on the #1979 #elections and lessons for today. This briefing focuses on the relation between the election of and the powers attributed to the #EP. It shows that well into the 1970s, MEPs tried to de-couple organising direct elections from expanding EP powers. Their main fear was that demanding both simultaneously would be too much for Member States to swallow. Pursuing them separately was the thought the better strategy. Yet, by the end of the 1970s, MEPs increasingly pushed the idea of a virtuous circle of empowerment and elections. They developed this further after the 1979 elections, when a low(er than expected) voter turnout dictated a re-coupling of the issues in order to maintain momentum. The briefing concludes by connecting this historical debate to contemporary issues, highlighting how the question of Parliament's powers has become intimately connected with questions of democracy, representation and elections. Two other EPRS briefings on the 1979 elections include: - Political parties, voter mobilisation and the 1979 European elections - https://lnkd.in/evrkx5s2 - The European Parliament and the European citizen as voter - https://lnkd.in/eSPt5rXX

Madagascar : Opposition Leaders Declare Intentions for Legislative and Communal Elections Antananarivo, 8th Febroary 2024 - In the wake of Tim or Tiko's announcement to participate in the forthcoming legislative and communal elections in Madagascar, a significant development unfolds within the opposition ranks. Other prominent opposition leaders, including Arb Madagascar led by Andry Raobelina and MMM (Malagasy Miara Miainga) led by Hajo Andrianainarivelo, have also declared their intent to partake in the upcoming electoral processes. Expressing readiness, these opposition leaders cite their financial preparedness for the upcoming elections, highlighting their decision to abstain from the presidential election, allowing them to allocate resources for the upcoming legislative and communal contests. In their official declarations, they emphasize their objective to secure more elected representatives, additional deputies, and mayors in the upcoming elections. This strategic move aims to strengthen their influence and representation across various levels of governance. Simultaneously, the ruling presidential party has signaled its preparedness to face this opposition challenge. Undoubtedly, they boast a robust nationwide presence and a substantial political infrastructure, showcasing their confidence in navigating the complex political landscape. ©️Follow us on the website https://ledefi.mg/ on the Linkedin page Le Defi Madagascar / on the YouTube channel Le Défi Madagascar