Rory S. Coakley’s Post

We know that come September 18th; it is likely we will hear that the Federal Reserve will be cutting interest rates. At this point, though we do not know if that would go into effect immediately or sometime before the end of 2024 nor do we know if it will be one cut or if we should really expect multiple cuts by the end of the year. What we do know is that depending on how the economy fares heading into September will determine how quickly the Fed acts. Here is a breakdown of the factors influencing this: 📊Easing Inflation: Inflation rates have shown signs of moderation compared to earlier highs in 2024. This reduces pressure on the Fed to raise rates further. 📊Economic Slowdown: Some economic indicators suggest a potential slowdown, which could prompt the Fed to lower rates to stimulate the economy. 📊Market Expectations: Financial markets are currently anticipating multiple rate cuts by the Fed later in 2024. If the Fed signals a more aggressive stance on cutting rates, we could see a surge in market optimism, leading to increased investments and consumer spending. Potential interest rate cuts could be a boom for sellers. Lower mortgage rates often lead to increased buyer demand, which can drive up competition and home prices. If you are considering selling, now might be a great time to partner with a local real estate agent to explore your options. #RealEstateTips #HomeSelling #HousingMarket #SellersMarket

WILL THE FED CUT RATES IN 2024? When does the phrase “no hurry” turn into “not in 2024?” During a recent testimony to Congress, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that he expects short-term interest rates to trend lower in 2024, but he’s still in “no hurry” to say when he believes that cycle will begin. Powell’s message leads some to conclude that the Fed will change its rate-cut message to “not in 2024” during the next few months. The growing chorus of economists believe that the Fed’s inflation fight will go on longer than expected, which will mean no relief in short-term interest rates any time soon. January’s inflation reports were hotter than expected, spotlighting the imminent inflation updates coming this week, starting with the Consumer Price Index tomorrow, March 12. If the reports are hot, that may complicate the Fed’s decision and support what economists suggest. The reality is the Fed is juggling so many balls that it’s impossible to know the tipping point that will prompt an adjustment in rates. Thus far, the Fed has navigated the rate increases fairly well to not put us into a deep recession and let’s not forget, on a long-term perspective, the 30-year, fixed rate mortgage has averaged 7.2% since 1975. Message me if you would like to be added to my weekly commentary mailing list which covers more in-depth market analysis as well as tax tips. #fischfinancial

4 times a year, the Fed releases its best guess of where the Fed Funds Rate will be in the coming years. One of the market's favorite ways to digest that info is via a dot plot that the Fed publishes. It shows projections from each Fed member as a single dot. These projections don't determine where rates ultimately end up, but they do make the road bumpy or smooth. Since a rate cut was wholly out of the question at this meeting, markets were eager to see how recent inflation surprises changed the Fed's outlook. Turns out, not much! #federalreserve #inflation #dotplot #mortgages #realestate #housingmarket

The FED didn't cut interest rates, so rates likely to continue as they currently are at this point. Watch this video in the link to learn more about the FED's decision. If you are interested in buying, but were waiting on lower rates, that could be months away. My best advice is to buy in the winter while the home buying rush of springtime has not affected home prices. It is always supply and demand. The supply is low and not expected to increase significantly. Yes, more homes did come on the market in January and more are expected in February, but overall the inventory is lower than normal. Now is a great time to buy. Reach out to Don at 910-391-4884.

🛑 Fed Holds Rates Steady Amid Inflation Challenges, Hints at Future Policy Adjustments The Federal Reserve just completed its two-day meeting and left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. Here are the highlights from the Fed's latest interest rate announcement: - No Change in Short-Term Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve keeps its benchmark interest rate at a 23-year high of 5.25%-5.50%. - Focus on Inflation: Despite no recent progress towards the 2% inflation target, the Fed remains committed to this goal. - No Immediate Rate Hikes: Fed Chair Jay Powell indicates that the next policy move is unlikely to be a rate hike. - Rate Cuts Possible: Powell hints at potential rate cuts in the future but only when there is greater confidence in achieving sustainable inflation reduction. Mortgage rates dropped lower immediately after the Fed's announcement on interest rates. Visit us at www.RelianceFinancial.com. PIC CREDIT: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. (Elizabeth Frantz/REUTERS/File Photo) (REUTERS / Reuters) #Mortgage #RealEstate #FederalReserve #EconomicUpdate #Inflation #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #FinancialMarkets #ConsumerFinance

What Does Fed's Decision Yesterday mean to us ? The much awaited Fed’s decision on interest rates were out yesterday. Surprisingly no rate cuts were made which is antagonistic to the 3 rate cuts in 2024 indicated earlier.  Looks like no rate cuts till there is enough confidence that 2% inflation rate is attained & sustained. The Fed rates have been the same since July 2023. Rate reduction seems impossible till a comfort level is reached with the inflation trajectory. So it is just a wait and watch game till then How does this decision affect our money? • Mortgage rates and credit card rates will remain high. Inflation needs to take a steep dip for mortgage rates to jump below 7% • Home Equity Line of Credit remains perched at its spot since it is NOT inversely related to the Feds rates • It will be a good idea to keep your money in CDs High yield savings accounts and money markets and also to lock in rates in CDs with longer maturity periods  • Better to concentrate on repaying high cost credit card debts • No rate cuts and consistent high fed rates will reduce the chances of borrowers to get approvals for new loans However, there is no anticipation of Stagflation (Weak economy + High inflation) as per Powell. There is confidence that inflation will slip down and economy will have a healthy growth over a period of time. On a positive note though there has been no rate cut, any chance of rate hike in the near future has been outright ruled out.  #Fedrates #PersonalFinance #inflation #Ratecuts

Interest rates will come down later this year! What are you doing to prepare for double the amount of serious home buyers flooding the real estate market? NOW is the time to prepare and come up with a buying plan, call me. David Korch Certified Mtg. Advisor david.korch@caliberhomeloans.com Fed Still Signals Three Rate Cuts in 2024 After eleven rate hikes since March of 2022, the Fed once again left their benchmark Federal Funds Rate unchanged at a range of 5.25% to 5.5%. This decision was unanimous and marks the fifth straight meeting they held rates steady. The Fed Funds Rate is the interest rate for overnight borrowing for banks and it is not the same as mortgage rates. The Fed has been aggressively hiking the Fed Funds Rate throughout this cycle to try to slow the economy and curb the runaway inflation that became rampant over the last few years. What’s the bottom line? Despite some recent inflation readings that were hotter than expected, the Fed noted that three rate cuts are still expected this year. The Fed’s "dot plot" of member forecasts showed that 15 out of 19 members still expect cuts of between 50 and 100 basis points over the course of 2024.

Will interest rates be cut this June at the Federal Reserve’s meeting? Experts believe the likelihood is low, while some believe that there might even be a possibility of a rate hike if the current rates don’t cool the inflation rate further. Inflation remains meaningfully above the Fed's 2% target, and it is taking longer than usual for restrictive rates to slow the economy, much of which has to do with the stimulus money the government was forced to deploy in the pandemic era to keep the economy afloat. As the economy slows in 2024's second half and the Fed begins to ease monetary policy, we would expect mortgage rates to fall gradually and modestly but remain well above the sub-3% lows hit during the pandemic. Since interest rates typically impact cap rates (eventually), understanding the dynamics behind the interest rate environment and national cap rate trends is crucial for savvy investors in retail real estate. NNN Trends is your go-to resource for cap rates that are continually updated, as well as national comparable sales and consumer traffic patterns. Check it out here: https://bit.ly/3yGVRLm #cre #commercialrealestate #federalreserve #interestrates #netlease #retail

This week’s rally kicked in to gear Tuesday afternoon after a stronger than anticipated 10-Year Note Auction that was followed up by a softer than forecasted inflation report. Post-CPI, Fed Chair Powell took the podium after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting decided to leave overnight rates unchanged at 5.25% - 5.50%. The new Dot Plot was deemed hawkish as forecasted rate cuts were eliminated and Powell was viewed as cautious – in wait and see mode – in his press conference. The Market waited until 7:30 AM Central on Thursday and saw a soft PPI (-0.2% Monthly vs 0.5% Previous) and increasing Initial Jobless Claims (242k vs 229k previous) and immediately began to re-price in a September rate cut (70% chance of a cut right now according to Fed Funds Futures). The 10-Year Treasury rallied to a low yield of 4.188 Friday and is firmly planted on the long-term trend line. Where we go from here will be largely dependent on next week’s economic data. Week Ahead Investors will continue to watch for Fed officials to elaborate on their plans for future monetary policy. For economic reports, Retail Sales will be released on Tuesday. Since consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, the retail sales data is a key measure of the health of the economy. Housing Starts will come out on Thursday and Existing Home Sales on Friday. Mortgage markets will be closed on Wednesday for Juneteenth. #mortgage #mortgagerates #news #lending101 #mortgagenews #mortgagebroker #loanofficer #orangecounty #irvine #ocar

Are we jumping at shadows, or is the inflation genie back in the bottle? One week is a long time in investment markets, and it's been even longer since the first rate rise back on 4 May 2022. The last couple of years has been a rollercoaster for homeowners, buyers and investors. But at some point, the narrative would change from fear of future rate rises to rate cuts, and many have been holding off making any property decisions until certainty is known. What has been impossible to predict is when and what will happen with rates; every market attempt has proven to be wrong, and the property market confidence has ebbed and flowed with not where rates are today but a consensus view on where they are going. While I feel it is too early to call it, it is hard to argue that the last week has been a breaking point in data that has led the market to believe rate cuts are a certainty in the short term and significant cuts are now needed around the world to bring confidence back to economies. As a business, it's only really a few days to comment, but we have undoubtedly seen a sharp increase in buyer enquiry and appetite to borrow. We will track this closely over the coming months, what our new clients are feeling, thinking and doing. Mortgage Brokers are one of the leading indicators of where property prices are going. We see how attitudes, behaviours and personal decision-making change. If you are looking to transact in markets, please remember that as lending appetite increases together with borrowing capacity growth due to rate cuts and servicing changes, it will lead to more demand on low listing numbers. We may see a 2019 scenario when a price growth burst surprises everyone yet again, and you go from having control and choice to chasing your tail. #thingschangefirst