Ryan Oates, CFP®,MBA, CPFA’s Post

Advisorpedia recently shared this article, “The Risk of Recession Isn’t Zero. ‘Economists don’t think the economy will get even close to a recession. In January, they, on average, forecast sub-1% growth in each of the first three quarters of this year. Now, they expect growth to bottom out this year at an inflation-adjusted 1.4% in the third quarter.’ – WSJ Of course, this outlook seems contradictory to numerous indicators with a long history of preceding recessionary onsets, such as yield curve inversions. As shown, we currently have the longest, consistent period in history where the yield spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill is inverted. Yet, no recession has manifested itself this time.” Learn more in the article here: https://lnkd.in/eGiECr_P

All’s Not Quiet on the Economic Front: Will It Be Soft Landing, or Not to Be? 📈🔍 I came across an article in the New York Times that might have significant implications for all of us, whether from a consumer or business perspective. 📉📈 2024's Economic Rollercoaster: No Soft Landing in Sight? 🎢 Just when we thought the economy might ease into a gentle "soft landing," 2024 had other plans! Instead of decelerating, both economic growth and inflation are ramping up, presenting new challenges for the Federal Reserve's strategy. 🚀📊 🔥 Here’s the unfolding drama: Unyielding Growth: The economy continues to defy gravity, with growth rates soaring beyond forecasts, despite the Fed's attempts to cool things down with interest rate hikes. Stubborn Inflation: Like a persistent antagonist in a play, inflation remains a central character, challenging the Fed's narrative and complicating their next moves. 🌡️ 🤔 Why This Matters to Us: Interest Rate Dilemma: With inflation refusing to take its final bow, the Federal Reserve might need to keep interest rates high, or even raise them further—impacting everything from our mortgages to business loans. Economic Sentiment and Politics: As the plot thickens ahead of the 2024 elections, these economic twists could influence voter sentiment and sway the political landscape. 🗳️🏛️ What will be the Fed's next act? More rate hikes, or a cautious pause to watch how the drama unfolds? This ongoing narrative will undoubtedly shape our financial strategies and economic outlook. 👀 For more insights into this economic drama and its implications for us, check out the full story in the New York Times: Read the full article #Economy #FederalReserve #Inflation #InterestRates #FinancialPlanning #NYTimes

The US economy is too strong for rate cuts. We’ve experienced wild economic swings, inflation, financial markets, and fiscal and monetary policy since COVID. The Fed usually begins a rate-cutting cycle after recessions, but not when growth is strong. Read more from Atlas Merchant Capital LLC's Larry Kantor and Bob Diamond here: https://hubs.la/Q02kbjn80 #ratecuts #economy #finance #useconomy. #us #monetarypolicy

Recent projections from the Federal Reserve are increasingly optimistic about the US economy’s recovery from post-pandemic inflation. Officials now predict inflation will stabilize, without a recession or mass unemployment. Read more: https://loom.ly/OVd16YY #economy #bankingindustry #finance #bankingsector #financialnews #CoinstarForFinancial

While inflation holds significant importance within the Fed's dual mandate, which prioritizes maximum employment and price stability, it does not stand alone in the Fed's considerations. The Federal Reserve also monitors four other crucial economic sectors that provide valuable insights into the economy's overall well-being and may impact the timing of monetary policy adjustments. https://ow.ly/NMoy30sAbF4

While inflation holds significant importance within the Fed's dual mandate, which prioritizes maximum employment and price stability, it does not stand alone in the Fed's considerations. The Federal Reserve also monitors four other crucial economic sectors that provide valuable insights into the economy's overall well-being and may impact the timing of monetary policy adjustments. https://ow.ly/saEp30sBont

S&P500 Earnings are underway with the backdrop of slowing growth and rebounding inflation. In this article, I dive into the aspects of growth to find evidence there is life in this economy. Join me in this 10 minute read to prep for jobs data and the upcoming Federal Reserve policy announcement this week. #economics #federalreserve #useconomy #earnings

Forget a soft landing, there may be 'no landing,' warns an economist. As the Federal Reserve mulls its strategy amid lower inflation, the possibility of a 'no-landing scenario' emerges. What does this mean for the economy and you? Dive into the insights here: https://cnb.cx/3SBgOPn

While inflation holds significant importance within the Fed's dual mandate, which prioritizes maximum employment and price stability, it does not stand alone in the Fed's considerations. The Federal Reserve also monitors four other crucial economic sectors that provide valuable insights into the economy's overall well-being and may impact the timing of monetary policy adjustments. https://ow.ly/MZwh30sA5LE

Inflation is down, equity markets are strong, and the labor market continues to demonstrate resiliency—all of which points to a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy. But as BMO’s Deputy Chief Economist Michael Gregory explains, the Federal Reserve will likely remain cautious when it comes to interest rate cuts through 2024. You can read the article here to find out why: https://lnkd.in/gJx-uv9p