Simon Evans’ Post

It's always good to keep updated with statistics and data.

The world *is* changing and *is* on the right path. It may not be enough, but the trend is clearly pointing in the right direction: China is the heavy hitter when it comes to clean energy investments, and almost all countries except resource holders with little local population are investing more in clean energies than fossil energy.

It's always good to keep updated with statistics and data.

The US is a net energy exporter, however we import a significant amount of Canadian fossil fuels. And because North America is investing so much in fossil fuels, natural gas is so cheap it makes sense to cryogenically liquify it, and ship it nearly 6000 nautical miles to France, which costs $1.50 / million BTU. For reference it costs $2.86 / million BTU here, it sells for $10.12 / million BTU. This means that until natural gas is $8.62 here OR $4.36 there, natural gas will continue to travel. So how do we change the price of natural gas. When we electrify our appliances (stoves, hot water heaters, dryers, generators), that natural gas then has to compete in the electricity market in combined cycle natural gas plants. And compete it is, pushing all other fuels (nuclear, coal, petroleum, waste, biomass) off the market. And solar is just starting to cut into its market share, as seen by California’s declining natural gas usage in favor of solar and batteries. So as more grids like California move natural gas (and all other fuels) out of competitive electricity markets, natural gas will have nowhere to go locally, dropping the price, and increasing exports to other importing markets. So as other countries invest in locally produced renewables and the transmission to share them, their demand for imported fuels will decrease. All this to say, those investing in fuels are making short term bets. Renewables are taking over in grids around the whole world. So even as global energy use, and global fuel use is increasing due to developing, it is making up a smaller and smaller percentage of our energy use. What is right around the corner is global peak fossil fuel demand. More than half of the grids around the world peaked more than 5 years ago (US was 2008), and even though China and India are driving coal use, you can see below they don’t want to be, as they are investing heavily in renewables. As each grid moves from an energy importer to an energy exporter, prices will decline as the equation is flipped from customer driven demand driving up prices due to highest bidder, to providers finding customers by lowering prices (incentivizing more use) and/or traveling farther. Location based cost is in upheaval as batteries (that avoid movement) are now more cost effective than using electrical wires. While 5% of electricity is lost when moving power, and 10% of electricity is lost storing power a $10,000 battery is cheaper than a $1,000,000 per mile of wire. And while transporting fuel via pipeline may be cheaper in terms of $/MWh/mile, the electricity is traveling less miles, and electrification efficiency needs less MWh. Bidirectional charging EVs are going to charge the world. A transmission line to a parking garage can charge commuter cars all day, and then when commuters get back to their cars at the end of the day, they can drive the electricity home, with hitchhiking electrons. EVs replace power plants and distribution wires.

China is also leading the world in coal use, using 4.6 billion tons in 2023, 55% of the world’s 8.4 billion tons of coal used worldwide in 2023. In spite of big increases in solar and wind projects, they only produced 45 exajoules of power by 2022. In 2023, renewables provided 1800 Terrawatt hours of energy, or 6.48 exajoules of energy. This is a poor return on the worldwide investment of $ 12 trillion into renewable energy.

Check out some of the resources added to the OurEnergyLibrary this week! Some highlights include "Decarbonizing the U.S. Economy by 2050" from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), "Accelerating Industrial Decarbonization in China" from RMI, and "Laws in Order: An Inventory of State Renewable Energy Siting Policies" from Berkeley Lab. Read: Decarbonizing the U.S. Economy by 2050 — https://lnkd.in/gHxJjZSc Accelerating Industrial Decarbonization in China — https://lnkd.in/gMcaEpvZ Laws in Order: An Inventory of State Renewable Energy Siting Policies — https://lnkd.in/gNH9nuGu

We're very excited to be participating in this extremely topical and relevant conference in Sydney next week. Economic security and energy security are strongly interconnected and Australia has a huge role to play as a long-time, trusted energy supplier to Asia. Our CEO Paul Everingham will speak about the ongoing importance of that relationship to Asia's future before participating in a panel session on "Indo-Pacific energy security and Australia’s role in the energy transition." ------------------------------------------------------ 💡 We are the voice of the gas industry in Asia 📖 Follow us for insights, data and policy on the pathway to a reliable, low-carbon energy future

There are solutions.

EU investment into clean energy is only half of what China invests, as illustrated by the graph below featured in today's International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook (source: https://lnkd.in/eUAcNskc). This is a race not only for the climate, but also for energy security and the future of industry. As the recent Draghi report highlighted, the necessary investment into clear tech manufacturing, grids, and the deployment of wind, solar, and other sources of energy will go into billions, and require the EU to complete the internal market for energy, provide the right framework for private investment in the form of the Capital Markets Union, and make sure EU funding is spent as effectively as possible. Read more on the different challenges to the EU's energy transition in our recent European Parliamentary Research Service briefing written by Agnieszka Widuto: https://lnkd.in/eykyCa2r

Electricity for the personal transport sector can be 75% or more efficient (run 4x or more the number of EVs on the same windmill) with a simple change, already common in the Chinese EV market, nicely explored in this Pirate Professor video: https://lnkd.in/epNGTyiB