YPFP (Young Professionals in Foreign Policy)’s Post

Excited to have my most recent article published with The Diplomat! The Washington Declaration has failed to effectively deter North Korea and reassure South Korea, as evidenced by North Korea's increased missile tests and South Korea's growing support for developing its own nuclear weapons. North Korea's new security alliance with Russia further complicates the situation, necessitating a more robust U.S. deterrence strategy. Potential solutions include enhancing the Washington Declaration, redeploying U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea, or passing a legislative commitment similar to the Taiwan Relations Act to reaffirm U.S. support for South Korea. https://lnkd.in/eyeqe2ee

Nuclear Brinkmanship: US-Russia Tensions Escalate Over UK Weapon Deployment **Geopolitical Tensions:** * The potential deployment of US nuclear weapons in the UK highlights the heightened tensions between the West and Russia, particularly fueled by the ongoing war in Ukraine. * Both sides view this move through the lens of deterrence and escalation, indicating a fragile security environment. **Strategic Calculations:** * The US may see this deployment as a deterrent to deter Russian aggression and reassure its European allies. * Russia, on the other hand, perceives it as a threat and is prepared to respond, potentially fueling an arms race or military build-up. **Military Imbalance:** * The significant difference in military size between the UK and Russia raises concerns about the UK's ability to respond to a potential conflict. * This imbalance might influence calculations on both sides and necessitate further cooperation within NATO. **Limited Information:** * The information available is primarily through media reports and official statements, which might be subject to bias or incomplete. * A more comprehensive understanding would require access to classified information and diverse perspectives. **Potential Consequences:** * This situation could escalate tensions, leading to unintended consequences or miscalculations. * The risk of nuclear proliferation and accidental conflict could increase. * Diplomacy and open communication are crucial to de-escalate the situation and find peaceful solutions. **Points to Consider:** * The long-term implications of this potential deployment are yet to unfold. * The role of other actors, such as China and other European nations, is crucial in shaping the overall geopolitical landscape. * Arms control treaties and disarmament efforts might need revisiting to address the current challenges. Remember, this is just one interpretation of the situation. It's essential to explore diverse perspectives and engage in critical thinking to form your own conclusions. Read "Kremlin issues chilling warning as US moves nuclear weapons closer to Russia" on https://lnkd.in/gVRhshG8 #NuclearWeapons #USRussiaStandoff #UkraineWar #NATOSecurity #ArmsRace #DiplomacyNeeded #WorldPeace

South Korea's Defense Minister Shin Won-sik warned that the country could harm its alliance with the U.S. and destabilize financial markets if it pursued a nuclear weapons program to counter North Korea. Despite increasing domestic support for a South Korean nuclear arsenal amid North Korea's expanding capabilities, Shin emphasized that such a move would lead to significant diplomatic and economic repercussions, including penalties for breaching the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. He advocated for strengthening U.S. extended deterrence instead. The region's strategic landscape has shifted due to U.S.-China rivalry and the Ukraine conflict, with North Korea's relations with Russia complicating dynamics. Shin noted North Korea's military support from Russia and mentioned potential shifts in South Korea's stance towards arming Ukraine if the situation escalates. Tensions between North and South Korea have recently intensified, with aggressive acts from both sides, including South Korea's resumption of loudspeaker broadcasts toward the North. #AsiaRisk #GeopoliticalConflictandDisputes #Japan Follow us for daily updates on risk and operations in Asia! https://lnkd.in/g2Hagw3j

The Budapest Memorandum in 1994: Ukraine gave all its nuclear weapons exchanging it for security assurances from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia. The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances comprises three substantially identical political agreements signed at the OSCE conference in Budapest, Hungary, on 5 December 1994, to provide security assurances by its signatories relating to the accession of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The three memoranda were originally signed by three nuclear powers: Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom. China and France gave somewhat weaker individual assurances in separate documents. The memoranda, signed in Patria Hall at the Budapest Convention Center with US Ambassador Donald M. Blinken amongst others in attendance, prohibited Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom from threatening or using military force or economic coercion against Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, "except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations." As a result of other agreements and the memorandum, between 1993 and 1996, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons. #TheBudapestMemorandum #Ukraine

West paves way for Middle East crisis by failing to revive nuclear deal — Russian envoy There was a chance to avoid the current escalation, Mikhail Ulyanov said VIENNA, April 15/ The current escalation of the situation in the Middle East has become possible due to the West's refusal to restore the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran's nuclear program, Russia's permanent envoy to international organizations in Vienna Mikhail Ulyanov said. "The current extremely dangerous events in the Middle East are one of the results (not the only one) of the decision of the US and the Eurotroika to block negotiations on the restoration of the JCPOA. There was a chance to avoid this. The West paved the way to the current events," the diplomat wrote on his Telegram channel. Iran launched drones and missiles at Israel on the evening of April 13, calling it a response to numerous crimes, including an airstrike on the consular section of the country’s embassy in Damascus. The Israel Defense Forces said it had intercepted 99% of the Iranian projectiles that flew toward the country, with minor damage to the Nevatim air base. In 2015, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany signed the JCPOA with Iran to resolve the crisis over Tehran's nuclear program. In 2018, then US President Donald Trump decided to withdraw from the deal. The current US President Joe Biden has repeatedly signaled his willingness to bring Washington back into the nuclear deal. #business #finance #financialservices

Though a second #Trumppresidency is not a foregone conclusion, #Nato members are gearing up to Trump-proof the organisation and reviewing their #defence strategies. Nato’s concerns about #Trump’s re-election were heightened by his flippant comment in February that he would encourage Russia to do whatever it wanted, if certain countries didn’t pay up, defying Nato’s principle that an attack on one constituted an attack on all. With two of the biggest superpowers being led by wildcards Putin, and potentially Trump, Nato members are rethinking their nuclear strategy. Both the #UK and #France have nuclear capabilities, and this provides an independent nuclear deterrence. However, Nato’s deterrence relies mostly on US #nuclearweapons deployed in #Europe - of which there are about 100 non-strategic warheads (down from 7,500 in the 1980s) deployed in five Nato countries - #Belgium, #Germany, #Italy, the #Netherlands and #Turkey. By comparison, #Russia has around 6,000 nuclear weapons - which constitutes the world’s largest arsenal - and can launch these weapons from land, sea and air.  #WorldEconomy #Geopolitics #Diplomacy #Geostrategy #CorporateStrategy #Strategy #Politics #WorldPolitics #ForeignRelations #ForeignAffairs #ForeignPolicy #TradePolicy #EconomicPolicy #IndustrialPolicy #UnitedStates #EuropeanUnion #Eurozone #EuropeanCountries https://lnkd.in/gDXrP8k7

According to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), India now ranks ahead of Pakistan in terms of nuclear weapons, with India possessing 172 warheads as of January 2024 compared to Pakistan's 170. This places India 6th among the world's nuclear-armed states. China's arsenal saw a significant increase, growing from 410 warheads to 500 within the same period. The SIPRI report highlights ongoing modernization of nuclear arsenals among the nine nuclear-armed nations, which include the US, Russia, France, China, India, Pakistan, the UK, North Korea, and Israel. Key findings from the report include: The global nuclear arsenal totals approximately 12,121 warheads, with around 9,585 in military stockpiles and 3,904 deployed with missiles and aircraft. Approximately 2,100 of these deployed warheads are on high operational alert, primarily held by Russia and the USA, with China joining this category for the first time. Russia and the USA collectively possess nearly 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons. China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country. India's nuclear deterrent continues to focus primarily on Pakistan but is increasingly prioritizing longer-range weapons targeting China. The UK plans to expand its nuclear stockpile from 225 to 260 warheads, and France is developing new nuclear systems. North Korea has about 50 assembled warheads and enough material to potentially increase its total to 90. Israel is modernizing its nuclear arsenal and enhancing plutonium production. The report also discusses the weakening of nuclear diplomacy due to conflicts such as the war in Ukraine and tensions in Gaza, including the suspension of arms control agreements and increased nuclear exercises by Russia. #NuclearArms #India #Pakistan #SIPRI #GlobalSecurity #NuclearModernization #China #Russia #US #NuclearDiplomacy #InternationalRelations #DefenseUpdates #Pakpresstoday

Budapest Memorandum 1994: 1.900 Warheads Traded Against a Broken Word and a Peace into Pieces. In 1994, the Budapest Memorandum was signed by the United States, Russia, and the United Kingdom, committing to respect Ukraine's independence, sovereignty, and existing borders and to avoid the threat or use of force against Ukraine. This agreement was instrumental in Ukraine's decision to relinquish its substantial nuclear arsenal, which at the time was the third largest in the world, consisting of approximately 1,900 strategic nuclear warheads. The dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 left nuclear weapons dispersed across several newly independent states, creating a complex challenge for global nuclear non-proliferation. The U.S. administrations under George H. W. Bush and Bill Clinton prioritized preventing an increase in the number of nuclear-armed states, particularly in the context of the violent disintegration of Yugoslavia, which underscored the potential dangers of nuclear arms in unstable regions. The strategic decision to ensure that only Russia retained nuclear weapons was aimed at maintaining control over nuclear proliferation and setting a positive precedent for the indefinite extension of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (Read: maintaining power supremacy and creating disbalance). However, the commitments made under the Budapest Memorandum did not hold up over time. Russia's actions in 2014, with the annexation of Crimea and its aggression in Eastern Ukraine, violated the memorandum. This highlighted the limitations of the security guarantees to Ukraine, which had given up its nuclear arsenal in exchange. The United Nations, tasked with upholding international peace and security, was incapable to address this violation. The UN has condemned Russia's actions and called for the respect of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. These mere words don’t shield bombs, the effectiveness of the UN's response is limited, constrained by the power dynamics within its own Security Council, where Russia holds veto power. There is always the issue of veto power when a P5 member is involved. The Budapest Memorandum failed to deliver the security assurances it promised Ukraine. Russia's subsequent military actions against Ukraine and the failure of the UN to enforce the memorandum's terms starkly illustrate the naivety of relying on political assurances for national security in the complex landscape of international relations. Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused, among other things, the largest forced migration in Europe since the end of World War II. Up to a third of the population has been displaced. Ten million Ukrainians still cannot return to their homes. Almost four million people remain internally displaced within Ukraine, and more than six million refugees have found shelter abroad, not only in Europe but also overseas. Conclusion: Trust is good, but control is better in geopolitics. Dries Braeckman - 23/04/2024

VOA [excerpt]: #China said it opposes a deployment of #nuclearweapons to #SouthKorea as it would pose danger to regional countries. Beijing was reacting to a report suggesting the United States should take such a measure to enhance deterrence against threats from #NorthKorea. "If the U.S. deploys tactical nuclear weapons in Asia-Pacific region, it will be a dangerous move that will seriously threaten the security of regional countries and undermine regional peace and stability," said Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington. "We will continue to handle Korean Peninsula affairs based on their merits and our own position," he said in a statement sent to VOA on Monday. The embassy spokesperson described China's position on the Korean Peninsula as ensuring peace and stability and advancing political settlement that suits the common interests of all parties. The remarks were made in response to a report released May 29 by U.S. Senator Roger Wicker, the highest-ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, calling for a major boost to U.S. #military buildup and readiness against countries such as North Korea and China. In the report, "Peace Through Strength," Wicker suggested the U.S. explore new options, such as a "nuclear sharing agreement in the Indo-Pacific and re-deployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons in the Korean Peninsula." He said these would "bolster deterrence on the Korean peninsula" as North Korea "continues to build more nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles capable of striking the United States and our allies in the Indo-Pacific." In response to Wicker's report, a U.S. State Department spokesperson told VOA's Korean Service on Friday that "the United States does not assess returning nuclear weapons to the Indo-Pacific as necessary at this time" and "has no plans to forward deploy nuclear weapons to the Korean peninsula." The spokesperson continued, "U.S. security commitments to allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region are steadfast and U.S. extended deterrence commitments to the Republic of Korea, Japan, and Australia remain ironclad." In 1991, the U.S. withdrew from South Korea its nuclear weapons, which had been stationed there since the late 1950s. The U.S. has been providing extended deterrence commitment to South Korea and Japan, which means the U.S. military would use its full range of capabilities, including nuclear weapons, to defend its allies. Washington and Seoul will hold their third Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) meeting next week in Seoul to discuss ways to enhance extended deterrence, South Korea's Defense Ministry said Tuesday. The NCG was set up under the Washington Declaration announced in April last year when U.S. President Joe Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol held a bilateral summit in Washington. #news #Geopolitics

The idea of South Korea developing its own nuclear weapons is resurfacing due to the military partnership between North Korea and Russia. Some U.S. pundits suggest this possibility, but local analysts find it unlikely and unrealistic. South Korean officials have raised concerns about the North Korea-Russia pact and warn against the feasibility of South Korea obtaining nuclear weapons due to international opposition and potential destabilization in East Asia. Despite the increased military cooperation between North Korea and Russia, experts urge neighboring countries, including South Korea, to respond rationally. #AsiaRisk #GeopoliticalConflictandDisputes #SouthKorea Follow us for daily updates on risk and operations in Asia! https://lnkd.in/gkxXyZjC