Hurricane Predictions For August

Weather 20/20 has consistently delivered the most accurate seasonal hurricane predictions for the past two years, as verified by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center and in coordination with Colorado State University. Our forecasts leverage the innovative and patent-pending Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC) methodology. This unique approach not only pinpoints when and where tropical systems are likely to develop but also provides critical insights that are essential for preparedness and response.

Weather 20/20’s forecast for the 2024 Hurricane Season in the Atlantic Basin estimates 14-19 named storms. Although we've only seen three named storms so far, which is typical for this time of year, Hurricane Beryl’s intensity has pushed the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) well above average. Below, you can compare our predictions with those from other sources, as tracked by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center.

The LRC is a model and methodology that identifies and tracks the cycling weather pattern above us within the troposphere. Its regularity allows our team of meteorology experts at Weather 20/20 to make long-range predictions with remarkable accuracy. We believe we have effectively cracked the code of long-range weather forecasting, achieving a 91% accuracy rate in predicting severe weather outbreaks, winter storms, and other significant events days to nearly a year in advance. While predicting organized tropical systems presents more challenges, our accuracy is still unprecedented in meteorology. Recent examples include Hurricanes Harvey, Ida, Michael, last year's Idalia, and this year’s Beryl. Although we did not forecast Beryl to reach Category 5 strength, the LRC accurately predicted the potential for a tropical system in early July near where Beryl began intensifying.

The initial predictions for the 2024 Hurricane Season were first published in early March in the Weather 20/20 Hurricane Season Guide. After detailed reanalysis and continuous monitoring, our confidence in these forecasts remains high. We anticipate a significant increase in tropical activity starting mid-August, a testament to the consistency and reliability of the LRC. This steadfast confidence underscores our commitment to providing not just forecasts, but accurate, actionable insights that you can depend on, and our customers, Operation Barbeque Relief, in Kansas City, and others have been prepared far in advance for the past five years.

Here are the predictions you can prepare for with confidence. The first map highlights two potential organized tropical systems developing simultaneously, or within a few days of each other. One system is projected to move into the north-central or northeast Gulf of Mexico. The second system is expected to form in the same region where Major Hurricane Beryl was located in early July, but this time it will be forming and posing a threat in mid-August.

Take note of the important cyclic nature depicted on the slide above: this segment of the weather pattern is due to cycle through in mid-August and will recur in late September or early October. Therefore, even if the systems do not develop as anticipated in mid-August, they remain a significant concern for late September. This dual potential for activity is why we use 'and/or' in our forecasts, emphasizing preparedness for both possibilities. Furthermore, the formation of Beryl in the late June/early July cycle increases the likelihood of another strong, organized tropical system occurring in at least one of the next two cycles. Even though I am expecting the second half of August to become active, there is a possibility that another cycle could get skipped and this part of the pattern would light up in late September.

In the next slide, we forecast a strong tropical system developing and approaching the Southeast U.S. coast. Our analysis of the cycling weather pattern revealed a significant early indicator off the Southeast coast in the first half of July. Consequently, shortly after the initial mid-August risks, another robust system is expected to form and make its way toward the Eastern U.S. This "early indicator" did not produce any organization in the previous cycle. It still triggers a 65% probability of an organized system in this next cycle, or in late August as shown above.

Hurricane prediction is obviously complex. We are presenting an evolving technique that is producing accurate predictions, our forecasts, grounded in the LRC, continue to provide critical insights into potential weather threats. The patterns we've highlighted for mid-August and late September emphasize the need for vigilance and preparedness. By closely monitoring these patterns and responding to the early indicators identified in our analysis, we can better anticipate and mitigate the impacts of tropical systems that threaten land regions. Stay updated with our ongoing analyses and forecasts to ensure you are well-prepared for any weather event this season.

We value your feedback and questions. Whether about our hurricane predictions or any other weather-related inquiries, your insights help us refine our forecasts and services. Please leave comments and ask any questions that come to your mind; we are here to engage and inform.

Discover the power of the Global Predictor, the latest innovation from Weather 20/20. This user-friendly app, powered by the LRC Model, offers forecasts for the next six months for any location in the world. Download the Global Predictor app onto your device today and start planning your future with confidence.

Appendix:

For further clarity on the terms used in this report, please refer to the appendix where key meteorological concepts and terminology are defined.