PinPoint Macro Analytics

The just-released national accounts show the Australian economy hit stall speed in Q2. PinPoint Macro Analytics GDP Chartpack, sourced from the Macrobond Financial database, highlights the main outcomes and implications of the quarterly snapshot.  Read on! PinPoint Macro provides access to more than 4,000 automatically updating charts covering the major economies and financial markets. Visit our website to access our full chart library and sign up for a free trial! www.pinpointmacro.com Or you can subscribe to our Chartpacks. And even let us design one suited for your needs. Contact us on info@pinpointmacroanalytics.com.au. #GDP #australianeconomy #RBA #inflation #households #consumerspending #capex #publicspending #interestrates #unemployment #fiscalpolicy #livingstandards #recession

For those that were interested in PinPoint Macro Analytics charts on financial market trends around the Fed’s Jackson Hole Conference, here is the updated chart set post the Conference.  Post Conference moves matched the typical historical experience: . US equities (S&P 500) rose. . 10-year bond yields are little changed. . The USD weakened. PinPoint Macro provides access to more than 4,000 automatically updating charts covering the major economies and financial markets. Visit our website to access our full chart library and sign up for a free trial! www.pinpointmacro.com Or you can subscribe to our Chartpacks. And even let us design one suited for your needs. Contact us on info@pinpointmacroanalytics.com.au. #Fed #Powell #Jacksonhole #monetarypolicy #equities #bonds #USD

The Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Conference is typically a focal point for markets. The Fed Chairman’s speech is eagerly anticipated each year. And potential financial market reaction is debated. PinPoint Macro Analytics Macro, using data from the Macrobond Financial database, has looked at market trajectory in the days around the Jackson Hole Conference since 2018. Moves are typically small, but this historical perspective shows: . share prices are typically higher after the event; . bond yields are mixed but end lower more often than not; and . the USD index generally ends lower. PinPoint Macro provides access to more than 4,000 automatically updating charts covering the major economies and financial markets. Visit our website to access our full chart library and sign up for a free trial! www.pinpointmacro.com Or you can subscribe to our Chartpacks. And even let us design one suited for your needs. Contact us on info@pinpointmacroanalytics.com.au. #Fed #Powell #Jacksonhole #monetarypolicy #equities #bonds #USD

Continuing on with PinPoint Macro Analytics recent central bank theme, this new Chartpack, sourced from the Macrobond Financial database, looks at what we can expect now that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has commenced a rate cut cycle. During the first year of previous RBNZ easing cycles: . GDP growth typically accelerates and unemployment falls (COVID cycle in 2020 is the exception); . inflation rates typically continue to slow; . dwelling price growth unambiguously accelerates; . the trajectory for share prices and 10-year bond yields is mixed – but more recent easing cycles have seen share prices rise and bond yields fall; . the NZD/USD typically rises – often by a significant amount; and . there is no consistent pattern to NZ commodity prices but the average monetary easing cycle is associated with a fall in prices. PinPoint Macro provides access to more than 4,000 automatically updating charts covering the major economies and financial markets. Visit our website to access our full chart library and sign up for a free trial! www.pinpointmacro.com Or you can subscribe to our #Chartpacks. And even let us design one suited for your needs. Contact us on info@pinpointmacroanalytics.com.au. #trbnz #monetarypolicy #NZmonetarypolicy #interestrates #GDP #CPI #unemployment #houseprices #commodityprices #volatility #equities #NZX50 #stockmarket

The Fed is expected to soon commence its 8th monetary policy easing cycle since 1989. Lower interest rates will work their way through the economy and financial markets.  And PinPoint Macro Analytics Chartpack, sourced from the Macrobond Financial database, shows what happened in earlier easing cycles. During the first year of previous easing cycles: . GDP growth typically accelerates (major exceptions are cycles associated with an external shock (eg OPEC oil shocks, the “tech wreck” and COVID); . unemployment often continues to rise for a while – it’s a lagging indicator; . inflation rates in more recent cycles tend to track sideways; . house price growth almost always accelerates – the exception was the financial crisis in 2007-08; . more often than not, share prices, the USD and 10-year bond yields rise; . commodity prices overall show no clear trend but oil prices often fall and gold tends to lift; and there is no clear trend in market volatility – exogenous factors dominate. PinPoint Macro provides access to more than 4,000 automatically updating charts covering the major economies and financial markets. Visit our website to access our full chart library and sign up for a free trial! www.pinpointmacro.com Or you can subscribe to our Chartpacks. And even let us design one suited for your needs. Contact us on info@pinpointmacroanalytics.com.au. #thefed #monetarypolicy #USmonetarypolicy #USFed #interestrates #GDP #CPI #unemployment #oil #gold #houseprices #commodityprices #volatility #equities #alpha #S&P500 #stockmarket #USD

PinPoint Macro Analytics chart on the evolving US Presidential election betting odds attracted some attention. The latest version of the chart, sourced from the Macrobond Financial database, shows a significant crossover has occurred. Betting odds show where the “smart” money is going. It is close to a real time indicator on how the US election is evolving. PinPoint Macro provides access to more than 4,000 automatically updating charts covering the major economies and financial markets. Visit our website to access our full chart library and sign up for a free trial! www.pinpointmacro.com Or you can subscribe to our Chartpacks. And even let us design one suited for your needs. Contact us on info@pinpointmacroanalytics.com.au. #election  #presidentialelection  #Trump  #Biden  #Harris  #USpresidentialcampaign

The RBA left the cash rate at 4.35%, as was widely expected. Markets still believe that the next move will be down. But RBA Governor Bullock did throw out a few nuggets for markets to chew over in her post meeting press conference. These “nuggets” were a clear challenge to the market consensus: She made it clear that a rate rise was discussed at the meeting – it was “a very serious consideration”. Despite the Q2 CPI printing close to RBA expectations, she noted “the progress on bringing inflation down has been very slow for a year now”. Contrary to expectations, the RBA revised up its underlying inflation projections. This upward revision reflected stronger demand and a reassessment of capacity. In other words demand is still running ahead of supply and at odds with the Governor’s objective of “trying to bring demand back into balance with supply”. Getting inflation just over the line and in to the RBA’s target 2-3% target (by end 2025 on the RBA’s forecasts) is not enough. The objective is the mid point (not reached until end 2026). If that was not clear enough, Governor Bullock summed it up: “What I’m trying to tell the markets today is that I think probably expectations for interest rate cuts are a little bit ahead of themselves”. How to judge when rate cut expectations become more realistic? The pace of disinflation is the key. The PinPoint Macro Analytics chart, sourced from the Macrobond Financial database, looks at previous Australian disinflation cycles. The current disinflation cycle is the slowest of those in the modern monetary policy era (post 1990) and has now stalled. PinPoint Macro provides access to more than 4,000 automatically updating charts covering the major economies and financial markets. Visit our website to access our full chart library and sign up for a free trial! www.pinpointmacro.com Or you can subscribe to our Chartpacks. And even let us design one suited for your needs. Contact us on info@pinpointmacroanalytics.com.au. #cpi  #inflation  #rba  #monetarypolicy  #interestrates  #charts  #chartpack  #australianeconomy  #houseprices  #oil  #leadingindicators  #inflationimpact  #inflationtrends  #costofliving  

PinPoint Macro Analytics’s housing Chartpack, sourced from the Macrobond Financial database, gives an update on the state of play in the Australian housing market. PinPoint Macro provides access to more than 4,000 automatically updating charts covering the major economies and financial markets. Visit our website to access our full chart library and sign up for a free trial!   www.pinpointmacro.com Or you can subscribe to our Chartpacks. And even let us design one suited for your needs. Contact us on info@pinpointmacroanalytics.com.au. #housing  #houseprices  #dwellingsales  #charts  #chartpack  #rents  #vacancies  #affordability  #wealth  #australianproperty

The CPI is a key economic indicator and a critical input into the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision. So knowing what is going on inside the CPI and inflation trends in crucial information for policy makers, financial markets and commentators. PinPoint Macro Analytics CPI Chartpack, powered by Macrobond Financial, unpicks the Q2 CPI. PinPoint Macro provides access to more than 4,000 automatically updating charts covering the major economies and financial markets. Visit our website to access our full chart library and sign up for a free trial!   www.pinpointmacro.com Or you can subscribe to our Chartpacks. And even let us design one suited for your needs. Contact us on info@pinpointmacroanalytics.com.au. #cpi  #inflation  #rba  #monetarypolicy  #interestrates  #charts  #chartpack  #australianeconomy  #houseprices  #oil  #leadingindicators  #inflationimpact  #inflationtrends  #costofliving

Now that the US Presidential election looks like a real contest, having some idea on how the likely outcome is developing is important for policy makers, markets and commentators. Opinion polls are one source of information. But voters don’t always tell pollsters what they will actually do come voting day. Another route is to follow the money. In theory, at least, where voters place their “bets” should be a better guide to what they think will happen and how they intend to react. The chart from PinPoint Macro Analytics, sourced from the Macrobond Financial database, shows where the money is going. It is close to a real time indicator on how the US election is evolving. PinPoint Macro provides access to more than 4,000 automatically updating charts covering the major economies and financial markets. Visit our website to access our full chart library and sign up for a free trial!   www.pinpointmacro.com Or you can subscribe to our Chartpacks. And even let us design one suited for your needs. Contact us on info@pinpointmacroanalytics.com.au. #election #presidentialelection #Trump #Biden #Harris #USpresidentialcampaign