Where do you think the #hydrogen industry is today? 👉 SHARE THIS POST FOR BIGGER IMPACT 👈 The hype cycle is a frenzied cycle that is the usual path that new technologies take from initial appearance to wide acceptance and application... or to failure and oblivion. This phenomenon of the rise and fall of excessive enthusiasm has several phases that follow one another quite consistently: 1. In the trigger phase, announcements and stories about an innovative technological project trigger media interest, and publicity stimulate unrealistically high expectations. However, it must often be a usable product or a proven commercial viability of the new technology. Investors are enchanted at that stage and, therefore, maximally generous. 2. The peak of inflating, during which (primarily due to the large amounts of money invested in these projects) a large number of successful business stories cover up less exposed stories about failures, due to which some more cautious and rational companies and investors take corrective steps. In contrast, many others continue to inflate their bubble of expansion and growth. 3. The valley of disappointment is a phase during which it becomes clear that practical implementations of new technology still do not reach the high initial expectations. Interest declines, so many companies fail or drastically reduce production, and investors continue to finance only those that have successfully improved their products to the satisfaction of early users. 4. The rise of enlightenment is a phase of recovery from shock in which more and more examples of using technology within the framework of realistic expectations gradually appear; more advanced products of the second and third generation are appearing, and the number of investors in new projects is growing again. However, more conservative investment firms remain cautious. 5. The productivity ceiling is the last continuous phase in which the application and acceptance of new technology have reached a realistic, rational level. The criteria for assessing market viability are clearly defined, the technology is standardized, and its applicability now steadily returns the invested investments.
This content isn’t available here
Access this content and more in the LinkedIn app