Kpler

Global grain markets are at a critical juncture. Price signals, weather risks, and shifting trade flows are shaping the outlook for 2025. Are you prepared? Join us next week on Tuesday 18 March at 3 PM GMT for a focused discussion on the key fundamentals driving grain markets, including: ▪️Soybean vs. corn acreage decisions – What price spreads suggest about farmer planting intentions ahead of the Prospective Plantings report ▪️South American crop progress – Weather disruptions, yield expectations & export flow implications ▪️Northern Hemisphere wheat outlook – Early signals for 2025/26 and market impact ▪️Global grain demand trends – Year-to-date trade flows & supply chain outliers Our insights are powered with #Kpler proprietary S&D data, updated ahead of the WASDE report—so you get the most relevant information to refine your strategy. Register here: https://lnkd.in/dkfGe5wr #Agriculture #Grains #Commodities #Markets #Soybeans #Corn #Wheat #TradeFlows

China’s Crude Inventories Drop to Five-Year Low Amid Slowing Imports China’s onshore #crude inventories have fallen to their lowest level in five years, driven by a slowdown in imports. The decline raises questions about whether weaker demand expectations are behind the trend or if Beijing is strategically managing stock levels in anticipation of lower oil prices. “The import slowdown could reflect weaker demand expectations, but it may simply be that China is bearish on oil prices and is opting to run down inventories before restocking at lower prices in the future,” said Matt S., Head Analyst US . As the holder of nearly 30% of global onshore crude stocks, China’s inventory movements are closely watched by the market. Whether this signals softer demand or a calculated purchasing pause, the implications for global #oil dynamics are significant. Stay ahead of the market with Kpler Insight: https://lnkd.in/dParFvuh #kpler

Pakistan soybean imports rise after genetically engineered soybean ban lifted In October 2024, Pakistan lifted its two-year ban on genetically engineered (GE) soybean imports, reopening its domestic market to major global exporters. Soybean production in Pakistan remains limited, primarily at the demonstration stage, making imports a supportive supply source. Before the ban, Pakistan primarily sourced soybeans from Brazil, with significant volumes also arriving from the US, particularly in the fourth and first quarters of the calendar year. Since GE varieties dominate #soybean production in both countries, this policy shift improves the opportunity to export to Pakistan. With China absorbing much of Brazil’s record soybean #crop, renewed demand from Pakistan may provide support for US soybean exports in the 2025/26 marketing year, helping to mitigate projected heavy ending stocks. Join us on 18 March for our Grains webinar, where Ishan Bhanu, Lead Agricultural Commodities Analyst, will dive into how these shifting market dynamics could influence US corn and soybean planting in 2025. https://lnkd.in/dkfGe5wr #kpler

US Economic Shifts: Lower Growth, Sticky Inflation, and Fed Rate Cut Prospects After two years of above-trend growth, #markets are beginning to signal concerns. US equities are pulling back, long-duration yields are declining, and the USD is weakening. Adding to the uncertainty, a potential #Trump economic agenda—focused on cutting inflation, narrowing the trade deficit, and reshaping defense burden-sharing—raises questions about future economic performance. As a result, we have revised our #US GDP growth forecast down by 50 basis points to 2%, with risks skewed further to the downside. Meanwhile, we continue to expect core CPI-based inflation to remain sticky, hovering between 3% and 3.5%. Check out Reid I'Anson's full analysis here: https://lnkd.in/dzVMaEHq #kpler

Join Us for the Houston Gas Briefing Breakfast! The global gas market is at a crossroads. With escalating tariffs—15% Chinese import tariffs on US LNG, US import tariffs on metals like steel and aluminum, and ongoing trade uncertainties—how will infrastructure development, costs, and trade flows be impacted? Join us on Monday, March 31 as Kpler unveils its 2025 roadmap for #gas and LNG, along with a deep dive into how these tariff shifts are reshaping the #LNG landscape. Don’t miss this opportunity to gain key insights and connect with industry leaders. ▪️Date: Monday, March 31, 2025 ▪️Time: 7:30 AM - 11:00 AM ▪️Location: Texas Tower, 12th Floor, 845 Texas Ave, Houston, TX 77002 Register now to secure your spot! https://lnkd.in/dem-U9rs #kpler

Russia-Ukraine peace deal unlikely to revive gas transit in the near term Ukraine’s acceptance of a 30-day ceasefire proposal could set the stage for broader peace talks. But even if a deal is reached, Kpler Insight expects Russian #gas transit via Ukraine to remain minimal or non-existent in the short term. Kpler Insight Principal Analyst Ronald Pinto notes that transit is unlikely to resume soon, as negotiations must address complex issues like border settlements and security guarantees for Ukraine before flows can restart. Expired contracts and a lack of willing buyers further complicate the situation, with most of Gazprom’s long-term agreements with European buyers having either expired, been terminated, or become subject to litigation. “It is unlikely that European market players will sign new long-term contracts with Gazprom,” says Pinto. Hungary and Slovakia remain key players in this scenario. If Ukraine renews its transit agreement, some Russian gas could still flow under existing deals with these countries, but overall supply dynamics remain uncertain. The European Council recently urged the European Commission, Slovakia, and Ukraine to find solutions for gas transit—but stopped short of calling for a resumption of flows. Stay ahead of the market with Kpler Insight: https://lnkd.in/dParFvuh #kpler

Building on our recent Nordic #power flow insights, the NO1 DA forecasts demonstrate strong performance. Notably, the model successfully predicted the elevated price levels observed from March 10-12, as well as the key morning and afternoon peaks - from the March 9 6Z run and subsequent weather runs. This highlights a significant advancement in refining short-term price signal accuracy. And it’s not just the Nordics, we deliver these #forecasts for all markets across all of Europe - reach out to Kpler for more info: https://lnkd.in/d44_hvUu #kpler

Join Kpler & CommoTalks for an exclusive networking event in Paris! 🇫🇷 Kpler and CommoTalks are bringing together professionals from the commodities, shipping, and international trade industries for an evening of insightful conversations, networking, tapas and drinks. Introductory remarks by Yves Jégourel & Antoine P. . When? Tuesday, 1 April 2025, starting 19:00 Where? Paris (venue details upon registration) Connect with industry leaders, discuss market dynamics, and gain exclusive insights from the Kpler team in a relaxed setting. Register here: https://lnkd.in/dmxZVX4J #kpler

Mexican crude supply falls 150 kbd since late 2024 Mexico’s crude production has fallen by 150 kbd—an 8% drop in total output—since late 2024. The decline stems from budget cuts and quality-related production challenges, impacting overall supply. At the same time, a tightening in America's heavy #crude market, amid Chevron’s waiver removal in Venezuela, will keep demand for Mexican crude supported. As a result, Maya crude differentials are hovering at four-month highs against WTI Houston. Stay ahead of the market with Kpler Insight: https://lnkd.in/dParFvuh #kpler #oil

First zinc concentrate shipments from Walvis Bay to Antwerp point to Ivanhoe's Kipushi Since late February, two zinc concentrate shipments have arrived at Belgium's Leopold Dock, the terminal used by Trafigura for its European Nyrstar smelters. A combined 20 kt, the shipments departed from Namibia's Walvis Bay in early February. This may indicate that Ivanhoe Mines has begun fulfilling its off-take agreements with Trafigura for the sale of Kipushi concentrate in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. To support this, an Ivanhoe Mines subsidiary has spent recent months streamlining inland logistics across Africa. The Kipushi Project, which entered commercial production in the last quarter of 2024, is expected to achieve a #zinc concentrate run rate of 180-240 ktpa in 2025, rising to 250 ktpa in 2026. This is expected to make Kipushi one of the most significant contributors to global zinc supply growth over the next two years. Kpler Metal Flows provides real-time insights into the global #trade of metals ores and concentrates, with individual vessel movements from mines at the origin to smelters at the destination. Learn more: https://lnkd.in/dKXbSn-4 #kpler