Following the TNAC announcement in early June, the European Commission released a note detailing the final auction volumes for 2024 and published a preliminary schedule for the 2025 auction volumes.
As anticipated, the Commission did not allocate additional volumes for the RePower EU initiative, which could have increased bearish pressures. Instead, with the REPowerEU volumes remaining unchanged for 2024, the market will likely reflect increased confidence in achieving the EUR 20 billion target for RePower EU from auction proceeds.
The TNAC announcement at the beginning of June led to 266.8 million allowances being placed in the MSR for the September 2024 - August 2025 period. As a result, a portion of these allowances will be removed from the auction volumes scheduled between September and December 2024 and the remainder from January to September 2025. For the September - December 2024 period, this adjustment means a reduction of nearly 200 million EUAs, reflected in the revised calendar. The remaining 66.8 million allowances will be deducted from the January - August 2025 volumes, already reflected in the published volumes.
The 2024 auctions will conclude on December 16, 2024, before the winter break, and resume on January 7, 2025.
Starting January 2025, aviation allowances will be incorporated into the "general allowances" category, distributed evenly across the scheduled auctions. As usual, the auctions will take place on Mondays, Tuesdays and Thursdays on behalf of the 25 EU Member States as well as for the Innovation Fund, the Modernisation Fund, the InnoFundRRF, the MS RRF and the new Social Climate Fund. Polish Auctions will continue to be held bi-weekly on Wednesdays, and German Auctions on Fridays. The auction for the Northern Ireland will take place on October 8, 2025.
The volume for January - August 2025 is set at 396.6 million allowances, and the preliminary volume for September - December 2025 is set at 284.3 million, totalling 681 million allowances for 2025. The 2025 auction calendar includes 86.685 million allowances frontloaded for the REPowerEU initiative and 50 million allowances for the Social Climate Fund.
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cc Egis Breshani Jennifer McIsaac