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Sign up for ClearBlue's free Week In Review newsletter for headlines and highlights from our weekly paid subscriptions. Get an overview of pricing trends and regulatory developments across North American and European compliance and voluntary carbon markets. Brought to you by our award-winning team, ClearBlue Week In Review lands in your inbox every Friday afternoon. Sign up here: https://lnkd.in/gCaHVmK6

Released on #Vantage, our carbon intelligence platform last week, this report discusses the market drivers of Q3 and provides ClearBlue’s updated Supply and Demand and price forecast. ClearBlue Markets has developed an econometric model using inputs such as temperature, electricity production data, and economic activity to help our clients navigate the cap and trade market and better understand what is driving prices. Key takeaways from this report: 🔑 The newly elected European Commission will continue to support a strong EU ETS, sticking to the 90% emission reduction target by 2040. 🔑 EUA Dec-24 prices witnessed strong volatility during Q3 2024, with settlements within the EUR 62.82-73.14 range. The compliance deadline of September 30 did not materialize in a strong bullish price movement, as seen ahead of the previous compliance deadline. 🔑 The market continues to be highly driven by the speculative behaviour of investment funds along with Dutch TTF prices. The latter witnessed a volatile quarter amid supply fears, pointing at a colder winter than in previous years. 🔑 Fossil fuels witnessed significant reductions in Q3: coal generation fell by 25.55% year-on-year, and gas-powered generation dropped by 9.42% YoY, reaching record lows. Lignite was the exception, maintaining the same levels as in 2023, as high gas prices made lignite a more cost-effective option during Q3. 🔑 Renewable energy sources compensated for the reduction in fossil fuel generation, accounting for 51.15% of total power production in the EU and Norway in Q3. For the first time, wind and solar generated more electricity than fossil fuels. Solar power has been consistently setting new records, due to newly installed capacity. 🔑 ClearBlue has increased our EUA price forecast for the end of 2024, with only mild bullish pressure expected for 2025. Beyond that, we expect an aggressive price trajectory for the longer term. Contact us for access to this report, and to learn how to benefit from ClearBlue’s exceptional marketing intelligence services ongoing. https://lnkd.in/gWjF7Tac

ClearBlue's monthly EU Renewable Energy Certificates report provides updates within the Guarantee of Origins (GoO) and Biofuels market, taking a deep dive into policy updates, industrial trends, updates to other fundamental market drivers, and price movements. This month's headlines include: 🔹 Oversupply pressures: GO prices remain low due to consistent renewable generation, Norway's removing risks of withdrawal, and under-subscribed auctions. 🔹 Recent price drop: Norway's decision to stay in the EU GO market and low prices at French and Italian auctions contributed to further declines. 🔹 Renewable capacity growth: Europe added 6.4 GW of new wind capacity in early 2024, still on track to meet its 2030 target of 425 GW. 🔹 Upcoming CSRD impact: Stricter reporting standards from the 2025 Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive could increase GO demand. 🔹 EU permitting procedures: Infringement notices to 26 member states from EU for slow renewable energy project approvals may eventually support the market ClearBlue's award-winning carbon coverage helps companies reduce their emissions footprints and mitigate climate risks. Contact us to subscribe to these services via Vantage, ClearBlue's carbon intelligence platform. cc Egis Breshani

Join our webinar to explore key insights and emerging opportunities from the upcoming changes to the Western Climate Initiative (WCI). Register here: https://hubs.la/Q02SqZx70

The Canadian province of Nova Scotia has introduced a bill that aims to overturn existing carbon pricing systems and implement an Atlantic-wide cap-and-trade program. This would not be the province's first. A former cap-and-trade program was introduced in 2017 but was repealed and replaced in 2022 with a provincial OBPS. While the OBPS meets the federal requirements for industrials, the province did not develop a carbon levy. As a result, in July 2024, the federal fuel charge was imposed on the province, which Bill 487 has been introduced to remove. Read all the details in our article: https://hubs.la/Q02SMD5F0 Contact us to learn how ClearBlue Markets' ongoing attention to market-moving news can benefit your carbon strategy, via Vantage, our carbon intelligence system. cc Chloe McElhone

We’re #hiring a new Senior Analyst, Market Access in Amsterdam, North Holland. Apply today or share this post with your network.

How do sustainability leaders make the leap from identifying their offset needs to purchasing high-quality credits? Learn from those who have done it (and their advisors). Hear from Lou Mark of Autodesk, Troy Pilgreen of Dimensional Fund Advisors, Michael Berends of ClearBlue Markets and Donna Lee from Calyx Global as they share advice and secrets to success in buying high-quality carbon credits. Register here: https://bit.ly/3ZWSgnV

📢 LIVE UPDATE RECAP: On 1 October 2024, CARB released a second 15-day rulemaking package for the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), posting documents on the regulatory webpage. Since this is another 15-day package, comments will be accepted through 16 October. Note the Public Hearing date for the rulemaking is still 8 November 2024 – the Board Hearing date previously announced this spring for the adoption vote. 📑 The ClearBlue team reviewed the package and provided our clients with a detailed analysis in a Live Update bulletin last week. Headlines from our findings are shared below. 🌿 New Timeline for Hydrogen Fossil Gas Phase-Out and Renewable Requirements - The staff proposes to delay the ineligibility of hydrogen produced using fossil gas for LCFS credit generation from January 1, 2030, to January 1, 2035. 🌿 Inclusion of Sunflower Oil in Virgin Crop-Based Feedstock Limitations for Biomass-Based Diesel: staff proposes to modify the 20% crediting eligibility limitation on certain virgin crop-based feedstocks used to produce biomass-based diesel. Specifically, this provision will now include sunflower oil in addition to soybean and canola oil. 🌿 Move the effective date of 20% cap on crop-based biomass-based diesel from 2025 to 2028 for all parties: CARB proposes the provision will not apply to any biomass-based diesel pathway certification applications submitted before the regulation’s effective date until January 1, 2028. 🌿 Quarterly Announcements for Automatic Acceleration Mechanism (AAM) Trigger: CARB proposes that the determination for triggering the Automatic Acceleration Mechanism (AAM) will now be based on data from the most recent four quarters of reporting, instead of the previous calendar year. 🌿 Clarification on Low-CI Electricity Accounting for Hydrogen Production: CARB proposes to remove the word “electrolytic” to clarify that indirect accounting of low-carbon intensity (low-CI) electricity used as process energy can be applied to hydrogen produced through various methods, not just electrolysis. 🌿Allowing Book-and-Claim Biomethane Accounting for EV Charging with Fuel Cells: CARB proposes to allow book-and-claim accounting of biomethane for producing electricity used in electric vehicle charging, provided the electricity is generated using a fuel cell. 🌿 Updated Crediting Periods for Avoided Methane Emissions Projects: Staff proposes updates to the crediting periods for avoided methane emissions in response to public comments. 🌿 While there was no proposed change in stringency vs. the prior 15-day proposal from August, the final regulatory changes are expected to result in a bank draw in 2025. 🤙 Contact us for information on becoming a ClearBlue Vantage subscriber to benefit from timely analysis of market-moving news using our carbon intelligence platform.

Meet with senior members of ClearBlue’s Project Development and Advisory teams onsite at #COP29, 11-22 November in Baku, Azerbaijan. The 29th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) represents a critical moment to fast-track efforts in addressing the climate emergency. The event will unite government officials, business leaders, and civil society to work toward concrete solutions for what is arguably the most pressing challenge of our generation. One of the primary focuses of COP29 will be on finance, as it will require trillions of dollars to enable countries to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and safeguard lives and livelihoods against the escalating impacts of climate change. ClearBlue Markets believes that the carbon markets play an integral role in ensuring the acquisition and allocation of funds for this purpose. The conference will also serve as a crucial opportunity for nations to present their updated national climate action plans, due by early 2025 under the Paris Agreement. If crafted effectively, these plans could cap global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, and double as investment strategies that promote the Sustainable Development Goals. Connect with Kate Hullah, Ivan Cosentino and Vaibhav Jain directly to set up a meeting to discuss: the services ClearBlue provides to make carbon markets work for you, and what’s new with #Vantage, our carbon intelligence platform.

ICYMI: New York Climate Week 2024 showcased the voluntary carbon market as a crucial tool for financing climate action, particularly through its inaugural VCM Day. Buyer challenges and participation in the VCM were major topics in Climate Week, which included discussions around the need for evolving standards and more action in addressing value chain emissions. Corporations continue to face scrutiny in their decarbonization and offsetting strategies, leading to downward pressure on demand from elevated levels of risk and uncertainty. Participation has also been impacted by corporations facing an evolving policy landscape, highlighted by SBTi’s Scope 3 Offsetting standard and disclosure regulations such as the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD). While these short-term challenges are expected to persist, Climate Week may contribute to settling some of that uncertainty by providing a forum to facilitate discussion and improve transparency. Learn more on our blog: https://lnkd.in/eqaEMzNh Contact us to learn how ClearBlue Markets supports clients' activity in the voluntary carbon market with our award-winning services and Vantage, our carbon intelligence platform.