PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Is Earth losing resilience? We’re seeing signs that go beyond the expected script: Accelerated warming, weakening carbon sinks in boreal, temperate and tropical forests, and a measurable decline in low-level cloud cover, leading to reduced planetary albedo and greater heat absorption. These may indicate changes in Earth system feedbacks - suggesting that climate sensitivity could be higher than we assume, and that the remaining carbon budget is even smaller than current targets are based on. This is part 2 of my ongoing reflection on whether we are underestimating the risks, and what Earth might be telling us.

Wälder speichern immer weniger CO₂: „Je später wir uns auf einen möglichen Verlust von Wäldern als Kohlenstoffspeicher einstellen (...), desto abrupter, teurer & einschneidender werden spätere Klimaschutzmaßnahmen sein“, so PIK-Forscher Alexander Popp im DLF. https://lnkd.in/dMtZ9XK2

1.5°C is not a political target — it’s a physical limit. In this first of three posts, I explore whether today’s climate targets, based on the remaining carbon budget, are truly enough to keep warming below 1.5°C. We are set to exhaust that budget within just a few years. And yet, much of our climate planning relies on the hope that large-scale carbon dioxide removal will close the gap. The only path forward is to dramatically accelerate emissions cuts, shift agriculture and land use from source to sink, and scale CDR realistically, not as a gamble. Read the full article below.

🆕 The “Earth Alignment” principle calls for aligning Artificial Intelligence (AI) with planetary stability and sustainability. That means: socially just, ecologically safe, and effective in the long term. The Comment, published in Nature Sustainability & co-authored by PIK researcher Felix Creutzig, highlights both the great potential and the serious risks of AI. To truly serve people and the planet, AI must be governed with a focus on environmental integrity, social cohesion, and fair access, the authors argue. https://lnkd.in/dTvZYU3X

🌍💬 PIK director Ottmar Edenhofer hosted three high-level visits from distinguished guests from Chile, Japan, and German federal state Baden-Württemberg in the last few days. Key discussions focused on the latest research, pathways to climate neutrality, and strategies for tackling climate scepticism: https://lnkd.in/dHhhAryx Ministerio del Medio Ambiente, Ministry of the Environment, Japan, Land Baden-Württemberg

Forests under pressure – climate targets at risk, shows new PIK study. Warming, wildfires and deforestation are weakening the carbon sink function of forests. Even a 5-year delay in emissions reductions and forest protection could double the costs of climate mitigation, find PIK scientists Michael Windisch, Florian Humpenöder and Alexander Popp. Current strategies assume forests will continue to absorb large amounts of CO₂ – but that’s a risky assumption given growing natural and human pressures, the authors argue. The study highlights the high cost of inaction and the urgency of integrating forest resilience into mitigation planning. https://lnkd.in/dDQzRihB

Drei Fragen an... „#Forschung besteht aus vielen #Wiederholungen, #Anpassungen und schrittweisem #Lernen. #Rückschläge gehören dazu, doch mit jeder Iteration nähert man sich der #Lösung an. Man braucht #Geduld, #Ausdauer und kreatives #Denken“, sagt Tom Brown von der Technische Universität Berlin. Daraus ergibt sich seine Antwort auf Frage3️⃣ Versteht ihr warum? Slidet nach links! Prof. Dr. Tom Brown ist Teil vom Kopernikus-Projekt Ariadne und leitet das #Arbeitspaket "Szenarien & Pfade". Im neuen Ariadne #Interviewformat spricht er darüber, warum er mittlerweile mit sechs verschiedenen #Szenarien arbeitet und wie er den aktuellen Stand der #Energiewende in #Deutschland einschätzt. Hier geht's zum vollständigen Interview 👉 https://lnkd.in/ehqQ9unh Ab heute gibt es jeden Monat in einem neuen #Interview Einblicke in die #Arbeit und die #Köpfe unserer Forschenden 🤓

Im Zuge der #Energiewende wird es vielen #Gebäuden an den Kragen gehen. 😬 Den einen mehr, den anderen weniger - denn nicht alle Gebäude legen in Sachen #Energieeffizienz dieselbe #Performance hin. Doch was bedeutet eigentlich ... Worst Performing Building? #knowpernikus

Nach der abrupten Sperrung der #Ringbahnbrücke auf der #A100 in Berlin, die gerade bundesweit Schlagzeilen macht, dürften wegen „Verkehrsverpuffung“ nach einiger Zeit ein Viertel der Autofahrten entfallen: Interview PIK-Gruppenleiter Felix Creutzig in Radio eins. https://lnkd.in/eXKkT3Y9

Water is the lifeblood of our economies, yet we’re destabilizing its supply. It's mispriced & mismanaged. By 2050, changes in rainfall & access could cut GDP by up to 15% in low-income countries and 8% in high-income countries. Time to rethink water economics. Water’s true value must be recognized across all major global frameworks, from climate and biodiversity to wetlands and desertification, and backed by measurable targets. New Nature Water commentary, out now. https://lnkd.in/eDsMpfbJ