FocusEconomics

Crude prices have whipsawed in recent months, rising and falling by over USD 10 per barrel in just a few weeks. In the gas market, trader activity has been similarly frenetic. In our latest insight piece, we ask our energy economist Matthew Cunningham about the latest trends blowing the oil- and gas-market weathervanes.  #oilprices #gasprices #oilandgas #economicforecasts #energypriceforecast

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Don't miss our latest insight piece, in which we look at the countries that our analysts expect to have the world's lowest GDP per capita next year. #gdppercapita #gdpgrowth #macroeconomics

Moody's moved Brazil's government debt one step closer to investment grade on 1 October, citing recent structural firms that have beefed up the country's growth prospects. However, in recent days, our panelists have soured on their outlook for Brazil's finances in 2025, with the government likely to face challenges in reaching its goal of a balanced primary fiscal balance.

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China's new stimulus measures may have flattered to deceive, at least for now. The extra spending has led our panelists to project government finances as deeper in the red next year, but has nonetheless failed to move the dial when it comes to GDP growth forecasts.

In recent weeks, the finances of sub-Saharan African countries remained on a rollercoaster: • In Ghana, the government clinched a deal with commercial creditors to restructure USD 13 billion of eurobonds, sowing the seeds of the country's economic recovery. Our panelists expect GDP growth to speed up to 4.5% in 2025, exceeding the 10-year average of 4.1%. • But in Nigeria, the naira's nightmare continued, hitting fresh all-time lows. Since mid-2023, the currency has depreciated by over 70%, and our panelists expect it to lose further ground ahead. • Moreover, in Kenya, tax reforms were scrapped due to a public furore, delaying IMF funding and leading several agencies to downgrade the country's credit rating. Our panelists expect the fiscal deficit as a % of GDP to significantly overshoot the government's 4.2% forecast this year. Read more about our analysis and our leading Consensus Forecasts for sub-Saharan African economies here. https://lnkd.in/dgaTN-53 #consensusforecast #ghana #nigeria #kenya

The currencies of Latin America's big dogs are set to follow diverging fates ahead. While all will benefit from monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve, only the Brazilian real and Chilean peso are projected by our panel to appreciate in 2025 from end-2024 levels. In contrast, the Argentinian, Colombian and Mexican peso are set to lose ground. Read more about our Consensus Forecasts for LATAM economies here:  https://lnkd.in/d7kCzmE3 #consensusforecasts

Steel prices struck record highs in late 2021 as suppliers sweated to keep up with surging post-pandemic demand amid significant supply disruptions in China. The market has since cooled, but remains strong compared to pre-pandemic levels. China's transition away from heavy industry toward services will dent prices in the coming years, although a rise in consumption from other Asian countries will keep the market relatively healthy. #steelprices #consensusforecast

Our panelists have inked in a decline in crude oil prices in their latest batch of medium-term forecasts. Global demand for the fuel is set to peak in 2030, according to the International Energy Agency in its most recent outlook. This peaking will be driven by energy transitions in advanced economies; in contrast, crude consumption from emerging markets is set to continue rising, especially in China and India, preventing a sharper fall in prices in turn. #oilprices #consensusforecast