Show me the user, I show you the money.
If AI had a flavour, this week it would 𝘵𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘦 𝘭𝘪𝘬𝘦 𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘸𝘣𝘦𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘦𝘴 🍓. OpenAI ’s latest LLM model, o1 (known before as Strawberry) is giving #investors a sugar rush. The release happens at a time when OpenAI is raising money at a valuation of $150 billion. Pre-money. 👀 The market dislocation between AI #business fundamentals and expectations is increasing Do the business fundamentals justify such a valuation❓ Does it matter❓ Let's look at some commercial pointers. 🟣 𝐋𝐋𝐌 𝐌𝐎𝐃𝐄𝐋𝐒 𝐀𝐑𝐄 𝐂𝐎𝐌𝐌𝐎𝐃𝐈𝐓𝐈𝐒𝐈𝐍𝐆 Last month, Meta dropped a bomb on the GenAI industry by offering more than OpenAI does and for free. Meta is making its flagship model, Llama 3.1. 405B, available to anyone who wants it. This version can do pretty much anything that OpenAI, Gemini, or Anthropic are capable of, and just as well (reportedly). Moreover, companies may do so at a fraction of the cost because of its smaller weight. 🟣𝐏𝐋𝐀𝐓𝐅𝐎𝐑𝐌𝐒 𝐔𝐍𝐈𝐓𝐄𝐃 Building commercial use cases still requires expensive computing. Meta timed the release with Nvidia's AI Foundry launch. Llama 3.1 can be customised, packaged, and run on Foundry AI from day one. This ecosystem should attract developers. Overnight, Meta and Nvidia have undercut a whole industry by smashing the entry barriers to compete in this space. 🟣𝐁𝐎𝐓𝐓𝐎𝐌 𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐄: 𝐖𝐇𝐄𝐑𝐄 𝐈𝐒 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐁𝐎𝐓𝐓𝐎𝐌 𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐄? This is bad news for any company hoping to sell something Meta has just given away for free. The race for the bottom in GenAI pricing has started. The picture gets messier when one considers the financial situation of OpenAI. OpenAI will burn $5 billion this year ($3.5 billion in projected revenues, minus 7 billion compute spend and $1.5 billion staff costs). Which takes me back to the OpenAI valuation headline: ✺How will they justify revenue forecasts❓ ✺Even if o1 lives up to the expectations (i.e. correctly reason logical conclusions from first principle), will that become a commercial blockbuster❓ ✺Where are the viable use cases❓ (Show me the user. I show you the money) Meanwhile, like in Harry Styles's song, the market 𝘸𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘴 𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘣𝘦𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘦𝘴; 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘩𝘪𝘨𝘩. TGIF 😎 Happy weekend! i-Expand #commercialization #biotechology #digitalhealth #healthtech #healthcare #uae #venturecapital #entrepreneurship