ACLED

USAID once provided 40% of global aid. It’s no longer operational. Will this reshape global conflict? Unlikely. Political competition—not aid—drives violence. ▪️ Ukraine & Gaza’s conflicts won’t shift due to aid cuts—they are politically driven. ▪️ In Ethiopia, Somalia & Syria, aid supports food & healthcare—not war. The real crisis? Severe economic & social fallout, from healthcare to climate impacts. Clionadh Raleigh breaks it down: https://lnkd.in/eq-_j9Nz

Conflict is one of the greatest global threats, and data plays a crucial role in shaping how we understand and respond to it. Researchers are often motivated by personal experiences—many have witnessed conflict firsthand or seen its effects on their families and countries. Their work helps shift how conflict is studied, discussed, and addressed, from shaping policies to highlighting key trends like unrest and political violence. ACLED’s Head of Global Data Collection, Tom Hart, notes that by providing reliable data on conflicts worldwide, ACLED helps local organizations and decision-makers better understand conflict dynamics and allocate limited resources effectively.

Violence surged in Jammu and Kashmir in February as Indian and Pakistani forces clashed across the Line of Control, violating the 2021 ceasefire agreement. Political violence nearly doubled, with unidentified militants reportedly joining Pakistani forces in two of the nine reported armed clashes, while ACLED records at least three cross-border infiltration attempts from #Pakistan militants into #India. Indian security forces were also involved in civilian violence. A truck driver was shot dead in Baramulla for bypassing a checkpoint, and a Gujjar youth died by suicide after alleging police torture. Meanwhile, police detained over 500 people following the targeted killing of a retired soldier on 3 February. Read more in the latest Regional Overview: https://lnkd.in/dHykuAwh

📊 Where is political violence expected to rise? The #ACLED Conflict Alert System (CAST) tracks political violence trends with six-month forecasts, highlighting key conflict developments and monitoring battles, explosions, and civilian targeting at both national and subnational levels. Key insights from the March 2025 update: ◾ Total forecast: 12,853 events worldwide.  ◾ Top 10 most violent countries forecasted: Ukraine, Russia, Myanmar, Syria, Mexico, Brazil, Palestine, Sudan, Somalia, and Lebanon.  ◾ High-risk regions include Donetsk and Sumy regions in Ukraine, the Gaza Strip and West Bank, and Sagaing region in Myanmar. Stay ahead of global conflict trends—read the full report: https://lnkd.in/d5a2N8_j

Allegations of corruption and state-backed violence are growing in Mozambique. ◾ Mozambique’s Interior Minister is linked to an arms import scandal, with a company he co-owns bringing firearms into the country under questionable circumstances. ◾ The Netherlands has launched an inquiry into human rights abuses linked to security forces guarding the LNG project in Palma, where state-backed killings were reported. As Cabo Delgado’s conflict continues, state security and accountability remain key concerns. Read more: https://lnkd.in/dfGW6ubj

📢 Webinar | Emerging frontlines: How Jihadist expansion is reshaping Benin, Niger & Nigeria Since early 2024, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) have escalated their violent campaigns, expanding operations from the Sahel toward the coast and turning border regions into active conflict hotspots. How is this expansion transforming regional security, and what does it mean for civilians caught in the crossfire? Join #ACLED for a live discussion on the latest data and trends, moderated by ACLED President & CEO Clionadh Raleigh, with insights from Héni Nsaibia, ACLED’s West Africa Senior Analyst, and Dr. John Sunday Ojo, Postdoctoral Research Fellow at Leiden University. 📅 March 28, 2025 | 10 a.m. NYC, 3 p.m. Brussels 🔗 Register now: https://lnkd.in/djT4zpDY

Protests surge in Argentina amid growing discontent with President Milei 📈 At least 155 demonstrations took place in February—more than double the number in January. Key drivers: ▪️ LGBTQ+ & social movements protested in 60+ cities after Milei’s remarks at the World Economic Forum ▪️Mass protests erupted over forest fires that burned 30,000+ hectares & forced evacuations ▪️Public outcry grows over "cryptogate," with 53% of surveyed respondents believing Milei was complicit in the collapsed crypto scheme Read the full #ACLED analysis: https://lnkd.in/d7Kauq3R

Mozambique’s security forces appear more focused on repressing protests than countering the insurgency. Since President Daniel Chapo’s inauguration, police have fired on civilians at least 11 times, including in a deadly crackdown on peaceful demonstrators in Maputo on 5 March. At the same time, violent protests against Frelimo supporters escalated, with stonings reported in Pemba. Chapo’s call for a forceful response to demonstrations, militias, and "terrorism" suggests a shift in priorities—but #ACLED data indicates the insurgency is facing less state resistance than protests or Naparama militias. What does this mean for security in Mozambique? Full analysis: https://lnkd.in/dfGW6ubj

Syria’s transition is threatened by rival armed groups. The new authorities face major challenges as they attempt to integrate fragmented armed factions into the security forces. Some groups, including Islamist foreign fighters and former Syrian National Army members, reportedly seek revenge on the Alawite community, which they associate with the former Assad regime. Meanwhile, Assad-era commanders may be fueling instability to prevent transitional justice and avoid prosecution for potential war crimes. What drove the latest wave of violence? Read the latest #ACLED Q&A: https://lnkd.in/ejC-yBSW

#Mexico: Security operations against the Sinaloa Cartel escalate In February, federal and state forces intensified operations in Sinaloa, leading to: ▪️ Arrests of three Los Chapitos associates (8-20 Feb) ▪️ Removal of 80+ cartel security cameras in Culiacán ▪️ Destruction of 47 drug labs (17-22 Feb) Authorities more than doubled property destruction actions, while violence levels slightly declined compared to September 2024. These efforts follow US pressure on Mexico to combat drug trafficking, with enforcement tied to trade tariffs. On 27 February, Mexico ordered the extradition of 29 traffickers, including Rafael Caro Quintero. Full #ACLED analysis: https://lnkd.in/d7Kauq3R