Institute for the Study of War

NEW: Major Publication: Ukraine and the Problem of Restoring Maneuver in Contemporary War Ukraine’s unfolding Kursk Campaign shows that the battlefield is not fully transparent despite pervasive surveillance by both sides and that concealing operational intent can still achieve operational surprise. The war in Ukraine has seen the most advanced use of offensive and defensive electronic warfare (EW) in history. Pervasive reconnaissance drones have made the battlefield nearly transparent — except when the adversary has been able to blanket it with effective defensive EW. Despite this formidable technological obstacle (and many others, discussed below), the Ukrainians, against great odds, were able to conceal their intent for long enough to launch a successful penetration attack and subsequent exploitation into Russian territory. In a new paper, “Ukraine and the Problem of Restoring Maneuver in Contemporary War, ISW President Kimberly Kagan and Director of the Critical Threats Project at American Enterprise Institute Frederick Kagan offer a new framework within which Ukrainian forces and their Western backers can break the current positional warfare and allow Ukraine to restore maneuver to the battlefield. Learn more: https://lnkd.in/ezqYY7HX

Applications are open for our Spring 2025 Internships. Our interns gain practical, hands-on experience in the intelligence and non-profit space. Through our rigorous programming, interns will receive a unique educational component that hones their analytical tradecraft skills and enhances their professional development in national security.

NEW: Iranian Ballistic Missile Attack in Israel: Iran launched a two-wave ballistic missile attack that targeted Israel from Iranian territory on October 1. Iran likely intended to inflict significant damage on Israel by oversaturating Israeli air defenses, particularly in central Israel. Read the full report: https://lnkd.in/geWCshgB Key Takeaways: Israeli Ground Operation in Lebanon: The IDF began the initial phase of its ground operation in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has not yet engaged IDF units in Lebanon as of the time of writing. Hezbollah may not engage Israeli forces while Israeli forces are only staging “sporadic raids” that do not remain in Lebanon. Hezbollah Attacks Targeting Northern Israel: Hezbollah fired “Fadi-4” medium-range rockets targeting the Mossad headquarters near Tel Aviv on October 1. Iraq: Likely Iranian-backed Iraqi militias conducted a rocket attack targeting a US diplomatic facility near Baghdad International Airport on October 1. Houthis: Houthi Spokesperson Yahya Sarea claimed that the Houthis launched one drone at Tel Aviv and four “Sammad 4” drones targeting unspecified sites in Eilat, Israel, on October 1, before Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel. Terrorist Attack in Israel: Two unidentified individuals shot and killed eight civilians in Jaffa, south of Tel Aviv, on October 1.

NEW: Russian forces likely seized Vuhledar as of October 1 following a reported Ukrainian withdrawal from the settlement, though it is unclear if Russian forces will make rapid gains beyond Vuhledar in the immediate future. Read the full report: https://lnkd.in/gA_BBs9i Key Takeaways: Some Russian sources expressed doubts that Russian forces would be able to rapidly advance and achieve operationally-significant breakthroughs immediately after seizing Vuhledar. Ukrainian officials continue to highlight how Ukraine is reducing Russia's battlefield artillery ammunition advantage, likely in part due to recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian ammunition depots. The United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (UN OHCHR) issued its June-August 2024 report detailing Ukrainian civilian casualties, systemic Russian mistreatment of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs), and limited Ukrainian mistreatment of Russian POWs. The UN OHCHR report highlighted the difference between official Russian and Ukrainian reactions to the mistreatment of POWs, and Russian state media largely misrepresented the report by ignoring assessments about Russia's systemic mistreatment of Ukrainian POWs. The Russian federal budget for 2025-2027 has carved out funding to support online platforms belonging to a prominent Kremlin propagandist and a former opposition outlet, further highlighting the Kremlin's efforts to adapt its propaganda machine to Russians’ growing reliance on social media for information.

“On Monday, Russian forces moved into part of Vuhledar for the first time, hanging a flag over a ruined building, according to combat footage released by Russian forces and verified by military analysts. On Tuesday, Russian soldiers waved a flag from the roof of what remains of the town’s main municipal building, combat footage showed.” Read the full New York Times article: https://lnkd.in/eg6EuATd

NEW | Israel–Hamas War (Iran) Update, September 30, 2024: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that it began a "targeted and delimited ground operation in southern Lebanon" on September 30. The IDF said that ground forces will operate to target Hezbollah fighters and infrastructure in villages along the Israel-Lebanon border to achieve its stated war aim of returning the residents of the north to their homes. Full report: https://lnkd.in/eyPQvPwJ Additional Key Takeaways: Iranian Response to Israeli Operations in Lebanon: Iran will likely not be able to intervene in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in a way that meaningfully impacts the outcome of the conflict. Iran could take other measures to harm Israeli and US interests in an effort to stop Israeli operations against Hezbollah. These actions would likely also fail to meaningfully disrupt current Israeli operations in Lebanon. Iraq: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed four attacks on Israel on September 30.

NEW | Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 30, 2024: The Russian government plans to spend 17 trillion rubles ($183 billion) on national security and defense in 2025 — about 41 percent of its annual expenditures. Increases in defense spending do not necessarily equate to increased military capabilities, however, especially when significant funding is going towards paying benefits to Russian soldiers, veterans, and their families. Full report: https://lnkd.in/eQZRX7W2 Additional Key Takeaways: Russian President Vladimir Putin promoted presidential aide and close personal ally Alexei Dyumin to the Russian Security Council alongside three other officials. The Kremlin continues to use state and regional awards to coopt previously critical milbloggers as part of wider efforts to gain control over the information space. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin arrived in Tehran on September 30 to meet with various Iranian officials and highlight Russo-Iranian economic cooperation. Russian forces recently advanced in Glushkvosky Raion, Kursk Oblast, and Ukrainian and Russian forces recently advanced within the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced near Svatove, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk City. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed on September 30 the decree on Russia’s usual semi-annual fall conscription for 133,000 draftees.

NEW: The IRGC is trying to help Lebanese Hezbollah recover from the severe disruption that Israel has imposed upon it. Iranian military leadership is likely preoccupied managing crises over planning an immediate retaliatory strike to avenge Hassan Nasrallah. Read more: https://lnkd.in/eZk2uMYX Other key takeaways: Lebanon: The IDF continued its campaign to degrade Hezbollah capabilities, kill Hezbollah leaders, and prevent weapons transfers to Lebanon. Hezbollah continued attacking civilian and military sites in Israel. Yemen: The IDF conducted an airstrike targeting Houthi sites in Yemen in retaliation for Houthi attacks on Israel and in order to restore deterrence vis-a-vis the Houthis. Iraq: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed seven drone and missile attacks targeting Israel. The IDF intercepted a drone that was headed toward Israel over the Red Sea. Syria: Syrian opposition media reported that an unidentified actor conducted airstrikes targeting Iranian-backed militia positions and infrastructure in eastern Syria.

NEW: Western countries continue to invest in the growth of Ukraine's defense industrial base. Read More:https://lnkd.in/eGv4JM2U Other Key Takeaways: Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Russian ammunition depot and missile storage facility near Kotluban, Volgograd Oblast on September 29. The Russian government is reportedly planning to further increase defense spending in 2025, although Kremlin officials appear to be highlighting planned social spending while avoiding discussions of increased defense spending. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Glushkovsky Raion, west of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced in the Toretsk and Pokrovsk directions.

NEW: Lebanese Hezbollah confirmed that Israel killed its secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, in an airstrike in Beirut. The airstrike also killed several other senior Hezbollah officials and an IRGC brigadier general. Read the full report: https://lnkd.in/e2tkVbWa Key Takeaways: Lebanon: The Israeli air campaign into Lebanon has likely severely disrupted the strategic- and operational-level military leadership of Hezbollah. This disruption was likely worsened by the internal disarray that Hezbollah already faced after the Israeli pager and radio attack. Lebanon: The damage that Israel has done to Hezbollah’s operational-level leadership will likely severely degrade Hezbollah’s ability to conduct a large-scale drone-missile campaign against Israel in the short term. Iran: Iran and its Axis of Resistance have not yet responded in any coherent or clearly coordinated fashion to the Israeli air campaign. Axis of Resistance leaders have increased their personal security measures, which may impede coordination. Iraq: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed five attacks targeting Israel. Iranian-backed Iraqi militias also issued generic threats toward the United States and Israel in response to Israel killing Hassan Nasrallah.