Kinetic Analysis Corporation

The #hurricane loss numbers you see are wrong. We don’t mean the losses that adjustors assess when they go on site. We’re talking about when entire supply chains are on the line and barely anyone talks about it. Hurricanes don’t just hurt insured properties headquartered in the hit zone. They hurt entire businesses continents away when those businesses have manufacturers, employees, and contractors located in the hurricane’s path. How often do you see those damages included in the loss numbers? We heard about some #supplychain managers recently who admitted they don’t know where their factories really are. When a hurricane struck southeast Asia, they scrambled to confirm if their routes were affected. One delay can mean an entire quarter of supplies stuck in a closed port. Isn’t this something headline-worthy? We aren’t journalists that write headlines, but we have been providing leading hurricane data for over 15 years and we wrote a guide to compile our learnings. “5 tips to keep your supply chains safe in a hurricane”. It’s free – you can download it now at https://lnkd.in/gfy-p4H5 If you find it helpful, consider tagging a friend or sharing it with your network. Resilience to #climatechange and #extremeweather events is possible, but we’ll need to all take them seriously first – no industry spared.

Typhoon #KongRey is a very large typhoon. While typhoons in the western Pacific tend to be larger than hurricanes in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic, KongRey is especially so, with an eye roughly 100 nautical miles or 185 kilometers in diameter. The last time a typhoon this large impacted #Taiwan was Typhoon Herb in 1996. Kong-Rey will continue to track to the north and west over the next day or so before it makes landfall on Taiwan, with the current expectation being a category 4-equivalent storm with maximum sustained winds of 132 miles per hour. Strong winds, heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and storm surge remain the major threats to Taiwan over the next few days. Stay safe. #TyphoonKongRey #typhoons #typhoon #china #Philippines #Japan #pacific #tropicalcyclones #hurricanes #stormsurge #flooding #weather #climate #climatechange #risk #riskmanagement #insurance #reinsurance #supplychain #emergencymanagement

Typhoon Kong-Rey is a powerful storm headed for #Taiwan. Satellite imagery shows just how large the storm and its eye are. Additionally, the storm is expected to move slowly over the next few days and dump copious rainfall. The current expectation is for a landfall on Taiwan as a category 4-equivalent storm. We estimated an economic impact of roughly 24 billion USD in Taiwan from wind and storm surge. Flooding from intense rainfall will also be a concern. More to come on #KongRey later this week. #TyphoonKongRey #typhoons #japan #china #philippines #pacific #typhoon #typhoonseason #insurance #reinsurance #supplychain #emergencymanagement #riskmanagement #tropicalcyclones #modeling

An area of low pressure is expected to form in the Caribbean Sea over the next few days. Sea-surface temperatures throughout the #Caribbean remain above 30 degrees Celsius in many spots, and are well above average for this time of year. The low could develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm near the end of the week/into the weekend. Current model guidance seems to suggest a track more to the north and east, toward #Hispaniola. However, it remains too soon to speculate on a precise track or intensity. More updates will come once we know more. #hurricaneseason2024 #hurricanes #hurricaneseason #hurricane #caribbeansea #haiti #dominicanrepublic #puertorico #jamaica #tropicalcyclones #tropicalstorms #weather #climate #climatechange

Hurricane #Kristy put on a show as it rapidly intensified into a #Category5 hurricane in the eastern Pacific this week. Fortunately, the storm remained far from land and has impacted nobody. The satellite imagery from NOAA shows the storm near its peak intensity. Various features can be pointed out including the "popcorn-like" clouds close to the center, indicating that the thunderstorms near Kristy's eyes were tall and producing quick updrafts. In addition, one can see circular waves emanating out from the center of the cyclone. These are known as gravity waves and are an indication of a tropical cyclone intensifying, usually rapidly. Storms like Kristy help us appreciate the force of the atmosphere and Mother Nature while thankfully causing no impact to human life and property. But they also remind us just how powerful nature can be and how communities are ever more vulnerable in a changing climate. #HurricaneKristy #Pacific #EasternPacific #weather #climate #hurricanes #eye #Cat5 #hurricane #tropicalcyclones #tropicalwx #hurricaneseason

Tropical Cyclone #Dana is close to making landfall in #India as a category 1-equivalent storm. While the maximum winds are only around 75-80 mph, our web app shows the potential for 6 to 9 feet of storm surge to occur north of the landfall. The Bay of Bengal is one of the most storm surge-prone areas in the world. This is due to the shallowness of the bay and its concave shape, as well as the low-lying coastal areas that sit adjacent to it. The deadliest tropical cyclone in recorded history, #CycloneBhola, made landfall in this region, causing the deaths of between 300,000 and 500,000 people. While we do not expect the same impact from #CycloneDana, it is simply a reminder of how vulnerable this area of the world is to the hazards from tropical cyclones. #TropicalCycloneDana #BayofBengal #Bangladesh #tropicalcyclones #tropicalstorms #hurricanes #stormsurge #modeling #naturalhazards

In the #Atlantic, Tropical Storm #Oscar surprised meteorologists by not only developing, but strengthening into a hurricane. The storm was extremely tiny on satellite, and without data from Hurricane Hunters, we likely wouldn't have known that Oscar was a hurricane. As the storm scraped by the #TurksandCaicos and southern #Bahamas, winds as high as 75-80 mph may have impacted portions of the islands. However, with the wind field being as compact as it was, the largest threat overall from Oscar was not the wind, but the heavy rainfall. Storms like Oscar remind us that without aircraft data, we likely missed or overlooked several hurricanes that formed in the past. #hurricaneoscar #tropicalstormoscar #tropicalupdate #tropicalcyclones #tropicalwx #caribbean #riskmodeling #hazardmodeling #naturalhazards

A quick update on the systems we have been monitoring in the #Atlantic. The system in the #Caribbean is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. It is possible that the system may develop into a quick tropical depression or storm, but afterwords it should move inland over #Belize and the #Yucatan Peninsula of #Mexico. This will ultimately limit significant development of this system. The system north of the #LeewardIslands is also producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is moving relatively quickly and should encounter hostile upper-level winds by early next week, which should hinder significant development. However, development into a weak tropical depression or storm cannot be ruled out. #hurricaneseason2024 #hurricanes #tropicalstorms #tropicalcyclones #satellite #satellites #satelliteimagery #atlanticocean #caribbeansea

After hurricanes #Helene, #Kirk, #Milton, and #Leslie, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has racked up enough accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) to be considered above average. Even if no further storms form between now and November 30, we would end the season with above average activity. ACE is a wind energy index, defined as "the sum of the squares of the maximum sustained surface wind speed (knots) measured every six hours for all named storms while they are at least tropical storm intensity" according to NOAA (https://lnkd.in/eP8J2btN). Storms with greater intensities (i.e., category 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes) that have longer durations will rack up more ACE. Hence, this index is sometimes regarded as a more reliable indicator of total season activity, since a season with many weak storms may generate high storm numbers but low ACE. Graphic borrowed from Colorado State University: https://lnkd.in/e596C7_n #hurricanes #hurricaneseason2024 #tropicalcyclones #tropicalweather #weather #climate #riskmanagement #catmodeling #hurricane #tropicalwx

An area of low pressure currently located over the tropical eastern Atlantic has the potential to develop into a tropical storm as it nears the Lesser Antilles. The forecast below is from the GFS (American) model and shows the system developing over the next few days. The system may run into some land which could prevent significant strengthening. However, it is too soon to speculate on exact details. For now, this is something we will continue to watch and bring updates on. #atlantic #tropicalupdate #hurricanes #tropicalstorms #atlanticocean #caribbean #lesserantilles #hurricaneseason #hurricaneseason2024