C-MACC’s Post

Feedstock Shifts In Focus, As North American Costs Broadly Inflate YTD - Global Chemical Update | The Weekly Catalyst - January 16, 2024: https://hubs.ly/Q02gBDxs0 🔍 Feedstock Market Trends: North American petrochemical producers hold a sizable cost advantage compared to Europe and Asia. However, this advantage has shrunk YTD as its feedstock costs have increased relatively. 🔍 Chemical Market Trends: Global monomer and base chemical values, on average, rose WoW, with ethylene showing less support than its co-products. Methanol values declined with global natural gas prices. 🔍 Polymer Market Trends: Global polymer prices also reflect support WoW, with polyethylene (PE) spot prices in North America reflecting more support than Asia and Europe and outpacing domestic spot ethylene increases. 🔍 Agriculture Market Trends: US Ammonia prices have fallen compared to natural gas costs since late 4Q amid slow demand and its production advantage relative to Europe and Asia shrinking with ex-US natural gas prices. Companies mentioned: LyondellBasell INVISTA Dow Enterprise Products Methanex Corporation Braskem Oxy Westlake Shin-Etsu Formosa Group Orbia Yara International CF Industries Nutrien LSB Industries, Inc. Commodities mentioned: #CrudeOil #NaturalGas #Ethane #Propane #Naphtha #Ethylene #Propylene #Polyethylene #PolyvinylChloride #Polypropylene #Methanol #Ammonia

Daily Chemical Reaction - July 16: US Ethylene Producers Soak Up The Sun, US Propylene Also Sun Bathing But Faces A Cloudier Global Setting | https://hubs.li/Q02GNXHq0 🔍General Thoughts: US polymer prices have not reacted as aggressively to Hurricane Beryl and USGC production issues as its base chemical markets, and we discuss other factors driving polymer price support in the near term. 🔍#SupplyChain / #Commodities: We highlight the recent strength in US spot ethylene and polymer-grade propylene prices, which could prove negative for non-integrated buyers and put downstream product margins at risk. 🔍#Energy / #Upstream: We highlight developments in Asia natural gas and propane prices relative to US levels, which is a plus for US chemical feedstock exporters but much less so for global chemical markets amid Asia oversupplies. 🔍#Sustainability / #EnergyTransition: Global carbon capture capacity announcements and growth forecasts through 2035 call for the US to see the most growth; however, the number of new project announcements has slowed. 🔍#Downstream / Other #Chemicals: We discuss recent interest rate developments and the negative impact of high interest rates on chemical sector M&A and related valuations amid a high level of uncertainty into late 2024/2025. Companies: Dow LyondellBasell ExxonMobil NOVA Chemicals Enterprise Products INVISTA Inter Pipeline Heartland Polymers Braskem Pinnacle Polymers BASF Olin Formosa Group Phillips 66 Shell Mitsui & Co., Ltd. CNOOC International ITM Power TotalEnergies bp IDTechEx Amazon Commodities: #Ethylene, #Propylene, #Polyethylene, #Polypropylene, Polyvinyl Chloride (#PVC), #Ethane, Crude #oil, Natural #gas, #Propane, #Hydrogen, #Carbon Dioxide #CMACC #marketanalysis #marketresearch #consulting #chemicalmarket #oilandgas #upstream #downstream

August & Everything After – North American Chemical Producers Benefit from Improved Cost Positions in July; At A 2H24 High? | The Weekly Catalyst - July 29, 2024: https://hubs.li/Q02JfnFY0 🔍 #Polymer Market Trends: North American polymer production margins, on average, rose WoW, helped by export market support and an improved cost position. US spot #PE integrated margins are near a YTD high. 🔍 #Chemical Market Trends: US #ethylene and #propylene prices held up WoW, following strength since the start of the year amid outages and rising derivative demand, and base chemical prices rose in Asia relative to Europe. 🔍 #Feedstock Market Trends: USGC #ethane prices led global #feedstock cost declines WoW, falling considerably relative to Ex-US naphtha values. US natural #gas prices declined relative to Brent Crude #oil values WoW. 🔍 #Agriculture Market Trends: #Crop prices, following weakness for most of July, held their ground last week. Western #ammonia prices rose last week while US production costs declined, a plus for producers. Companies: NOVA Chemicals Dow LyondellBasell BAYSTAR ExxonMobil Braskem Pinnacle Polymers Westlake Shin-Etsu Oxy Formosa Plastics Corporation, U.S.A. Enterprise Products Inter Pipeline INVISTA Celanese OCI Global Methanex Corporation Mitsui & Co., Ltd. Nutrien CF Industries LSB Industries, Inc. Commodities: #Polyethylene, #Polypropylene, #Polystyrene, #PolyvinylChloride, #Ethylene, #Propylene, #Methanol, #Ethane, #Naphtha, #CrudeOil, #Ammonia, #NaturalGas

Outages & Costs Drive Early-2024 Regional Chemical Margin Shifts - Global Chemical Update | The Weekly Catalyst - January 22, 2024: https://hubs.li/Q02hf0ty0 🔍 Feedstock Market Trends: Brent Crude and ex-US naphtha values reflected more support WoW than global natural gas and US ethane – North American costs, on average, benefited WoW relative to Asia and Europe. 🔍 Chemical Market Trends: Global monomer and base chemical values, on average, rose WoW, with ethylene in the US showing less strength than Ex-US ethylene or its cracker co-products, lifting cost headwinds for buyers. 🔍 Polymer Market Trends: Global polyethylene prices rose the most WoW with higher feedstock costs abroad and storm-related production issues in North America – North American margins improved the most WoW. 🔍 Agriculture Market Trends: Global natural gas price declines outpaced ammonia values lower WoW, but a flattening of the global production cost curve and crop price weakness suggests margin pressure ahead. Companies mentioned: Dow ExxonMobil LyondellBasell NOVA Chemicals Methanex Corporation Braskem Oxy Westlake Shin-Etsu Formosa Plastics Corporation, U.S.A. Orbia Yara International CF Industries Nutrien LSB Industries, Inc. Commodities mentioned: #CrudeOil #NaturalGas #Ethane #Propane #Naphtha #Ethylene #Propylene #Polyethylene #PolyvinylChloride #Polypropylene #Methanol #Ammonia

North American Petrochemical Production Cost Positions Improve Further Relative to Asia & Europe | The Weekly Catalyst - March 18, 2024: https://hubs.li/Q02pQmgb0 🔍 Chemical Market Trends: North American commodity chemical production margins rose relative to #Europe and #Asia WoW, primarily due to US natural gas and #USGC ethane falling relative to Brent Crude and Ex-US naphtha. 🔍 Polymer Market Trends: We discuss strength in US spot #PE WoW, lifting domestic integrated margins, flag the drop in spot PP that outpaced #PGP lower, and note weaker EDC prices in Asia and Europe relative to spot #PVC. 🔍 Feedstock Market Trends: Ex-US naphtha prices surged to a new five-year high relative to USGC #ethane last week, as shown in Ex 2, notably benefiting North American ethylene-chain players relative to most abroad. 🔍 Agriculture Market Trends: Crop prices increased WoW, while US #ammonia production costs moved lower relative to those abroad - a general positive development for North American ammonia producers. Companies: NOVA Chemicals Oxy Celanese Enterprise Products OQ Braskem LyondellBasell ExxonMobil Westlake Shin-Etsu Olin Yara International CF Industries Nutrien LSB Industries, Inc. Commodities: #Ethylene,# Propylene, #Butadiene, #Polyethylene, #Polypropylene, #PolyvinylChloride, #Naphtha, #Propane, #CrudeOil, #NaturalGas, #Ethane, #ChlorAlkali, #Methanol, #Ammonia, #Corn

Upstream Integration & Cost Position in Focus As Downstream Uncertainties Persist | The Weekly Catalyst - March 4, 2024: https://hubs.li/Q02n1wPD0 🔍 Chemical Market Trends: US spot polymer-grade propylene values jumped again WoW, suggesting another contract uptick in March if the current spot price holds – we discuss the global landscape and those impacted. 🔍 Polymer Market Trends: Global polymer prices were flat-to-up across all primary regions last week, with the most regional strength occurring in Europe, and we show regional spot trends worth consideration in 1Q24.   🔍 Feedstock Market Trends: The price of Brent crude oil rose 2.4% WoW, dwarfed by a 14.5% rise in US natural gas. However, relative to three months ago, Brent Crude is 5.9% higher, and US natural gas is 34.8% lower.   🔍 Agriculture Market Trends: Crop prices moved modestly higher WoW, following a period of weakness in early 2024, and we highlight the drop in Ex-US ammonia prices, likely putting downward pressure on US spot prices. Companies: Dow OMV Borealis Enterprise Products LyondellBasell Shell INEOS INVISTA ExxonMobil Braskem OQ Evonik Yara International CF Industries Nutrien LSB Industries, Inc. Commodities: #PGP #Propylene, #Naphtha, #Propane, #Polypropylene, #CrudeOil, #NaturalGas, #Ethane, #Ethylene, #Polyethylene, #Ammonia, #Corn

US Ethylene Chain Benefits Flow To Both Domestic Producers & Buyers, Not So In Propylene | The Weekly Catalyst - March 11, 2024: https://hubs.li/Q02nYN8s0 🔍 Chemical Market Trends: The North American ethylene chain is regionally cost-advantaged for producers and non-integrated buyers, but will this setting persist? Register for our March 13 ethylene market webcast - link in comments. 🔍 Polymer Market Trends: Global #polymer price movements WoW varied across primary regions, and we flag US polyethylene (PE) showing the most strength globally, while NW #Europe PE reflected the most weakness. 🔍 Feedstock Market Trends: The North American chemical #feedstock cost advantage rose compared to Ex-US markets WoW, as Crude Oil, ex-US natural gas, and naphtha prices rose relative to US natural gas and NGLs. 🔍 Agriculture Market Trends: Crop prices increased WoW, while #US ammonia production costs moved lower and ex-US production costs moved high - a positive development for North American ammonia producers. Companies: NOVA Chemicals Oxy Celanese Enterprise Products OQ Braskem LyondellBasell ExxonMobil Westlake Shin-Etsu Olin Yara International CF Industries Nutrien LSB Industries, Inc. Commodities: #Ethylene,#Propylene, #Butadiene, #Polyethylene, #Polypropylene, #PolyvinylChloride, #Naphtha, #Propane, #CrudeOil, #NaturalGas, #Ethane, #ChlorAlkali, #Methanol, #Ammonia, #Corn

North America’s Petrochemical Production Cost Advantage Rises Relative to Europe and Asia, Global Prices Mixed | The Weekly Catalyst - July 1, 2024: https://hubs.li/Q02DTw6N0 🔍 #Polymer Market Trends: We highlight US spot polymer market developments that support conclusions issued in the latest C-MACC/PXi polymer price expectations report and comment on recent PVC price trends. 🔍 #Chemical Market Trends: US spot ethylene prices reflect support, partly due to continued strength on the Choctaw (LA grid) relative to Texas, spurring some to sell merchant ethylene rather than produce derivatives. 🔍 #Feedstock Market Trends: Brent Crude Oil and Ex-US naphtha prices rose WoW relative to global natural gas and USGC ethane prices, steepening the global chemical cost curve, on average, in favor of North America. 🔍 #Agriculture Market Trends: US corn prices moved lower WoW, weighing on sentiment towards farmer income and crop input use. US spot ammonia production margins improved relative to Asia and Europe WoW. Companies: Dow LyondellBasell BAYSTAR ExxonMobil Chevron Phillips Chemical Company Westlake Oxy Formosa Plastics Corporation, U.S.A. CF Industries Nutrien LSB Industries, Inc. Yara International Shintech, Inc. Shell NOVA Chemicals Celanese Commodities: #PolyvinylChloride, #Ethylene, #Polyethylene, #Polypropylene, #Polystyrene, #Propylene, #Ethane, #Naphtha, #CrudeOil, #NaturalGas, #Corn

Mixed Emotions - US Spot Polyolefin Price Strength Links to Supply Concerns, As Other Regions Deal With Oversupply | The Weekly Catalyst - June 10, 2024: https://hubs.li/Q02B75Qp0 🔍 #Polymer Market Trends: US spot polymer prices generally reflect strength relative to overseas markets WoW, with US polyethylene (PE) reflecting the most strength and NW Europe polypropylene (PP) being the weakest. 🔍 #Chemical Market Trends: Global base and intermediate spot chemical prices were mixed WoW, and we note the FM declaration at Celanese on acetic acid and VAM, and SABIC production issues in Mexico due to drought. 🔍 #Feedstock Market Trends: The North American chemical production cost advantage lessened relative to most peers abroad WoW, as US natural gas and ethane prices rose relative to Ex-US natural gas and naphtha prices. 🔍 #Agriculture Market Trends: Global ammonia values were largely unchanged WoW, with strength in US natural gas prices hurting domestic producer margins relative to peer Ex-US ammonia production margins last week. Companies: ExxonMobil Dow NOVA Chemicals LyondellBasell Methanex Corporation OCI Global Celanese Mitsui & Co., Ltd. Westlake Oxy Shin-Etsu Formosa Group SABIC CF Industries Nutrien LSB Industries, Inc. Yara International Commodities: #Polyethylene, #Polypropylene, #PolyvinylChloride, #Ethylene, #Propylene, #Methanol, #Ammonia, #Ethane, #Naphtha, #Crude #Oil, #Gas

North American Petrochemical Production Cost Advantage Improves Relative to Europe & Asia; Will It Get Any Better? | The Weekly Catalyst - April 29, 2024: https://lnkd.in/dZn6vDBm   🔍 #Polymer Market Trends: We highlight our upcoming attendance at NPE, the April edition of our Polymer Price Expectations report, and discuss mixed movements in global spot polymer markets by product chain WoW. 🔍 #Chemical Market Trends: Global base and intermediate spot chemical prices varied but mainly were lower WoW, with Europe and Asia seeing lower margins. Cost relief outpaced most US chemical price declines WoW. 🔍 #Feedstock Market Trends: US natural gas prices fell last week, while Brent Crude oil values rose, pushing the crude oil-to-natural gas price ratio to a 10+ year high, a level which since 1991 was only exceeded in 2012. 🔍 #Agriculture Market Trends: Global spot ammonia values WoW showed price support WoW despite natural gas prices reflecting a downward trend, implying lower ammonia prices ahead despite recent crop price support. Companies: Dow, NOVA Chemicals, ExxonMobil, LyondellBasell, BAYSTAR, Westlake, Shin-Etsu, Oxy, Formosa Plastics Group, Methanex Corporation, OCI Global, Celanese, Mitsui Chemicals Group, CF Industries, Nutrien, LSB Industries, Inc., Yara International Commodities: #Polyethylene, #Polypropylene, #PolyvinylChloride, #Ethylene, #Propylene, #Benzene, #Methanol, #VinylAcetateMonomer, #Ammonia, #Ethane, #Naphtha, #CrudeOil, #NaturalGas