Erudite Risk’s Post

The West is losing more and more of Africa to Russia and China. Key line from this report: "Russia’s growing military presence in Africa enables the Kremlin to use its limited resources to threaten NATO’s southern flank and degrade Western influence, advancing the narrative that Russia is a revitalized great power." To its peril, the US does not seem to understand the principles of asymmetric warfare. Atlantic Council Council on Foreign Relations Center for a New American Security (CNAS) RAND The Brookings Institution Hudson Institute American Enterprise Institute Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Pentagon, US Department of Defense, Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy U.S. Department of State #foreignpolicy #nationalsecurity The White House Institute for the Study of War William Collins J. Scott Christian Matt Abrams The Merge DefenseScoop Defense Brief Defense News #foreignpolicy #nationalsecurity @national security council https://lnkd.in/gcgNPh7R

Conventional arguments of deterrence and the balance of power do not satisfactorily explain Southeast Asian states’ joint military exercises with China. Instead, the more likely reasons are the use of these drills by some Southeast Asian states to signal their neutrality in the US-China geopolitical competition and to deflect US criticism of their governance and human rights record. Read more in RSIS Commentary “Strategic Workouts: The Rationale for Southeast Asian States’ Military Exercises with China” by Ian Seow here: https://lnkd.in/g9XeHwSm #RSIS #RSISCommentary #Military #SoutheastAsia

“Despite world defense spending reaching a record $2.2 trillion last year, European Union nations have only just begun to consider what 21st-century security will require with an aggressive Russia stirring on their eastern borders, a volatile Middle East, and the expansion of the Chinese military tugging Washington’s attention toward the Pacific. Political leaders have been congratulating themselves on the progress toward NATO’s targets for members of the alliance to set aside 2% of their gross domestic product on defense. But officials focused on security say that military budgets may need to emulate Cold War spending of as high as 4% in order to deliver on the alliance’s plans. If the US and its Group of Seven allies were to reach such levels, that would equate to more than $10 trillion of additional commitments over the next decade, according to calculations by Bloomberg Economics.”

China accuses US of seeking ‘Asia-Pacific Nato’ PLA general blames Washington for tension as Pentagon chief says allies seek ‘convergence’ on #defence and #security A top Chinese general has accused the US of trying to build an “Asia-Pacific version of Nato”, underlining tensions between Washington and Beijing one day after the two countries’ defence chiefs met for the first time since 2022 in an effort to improve military communications. Lieutenant General Jing Jianfeng denounced the US as the “source of chaos and tension” in the Indo-Pacific and said its regional strategy aimed to “create division, provoke confrontation and undermine stability”. Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue security forum after US defence secretary Lloyd Austin had outlined the ways the Biden administration was working with allies to boost deterrence in the region, Jing said Washington would end up “tying the region’s countries to the US war chariot”. #geopolitics #internationalrelations #southasia #US #China #nato https://lnkd.in/gJnzcTfi

The US and Japan are planning the biggest upgrade to their security alliance since they signed a mutual defence treaty in 1960 in a move to counter China. President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will announce plans to restructure the US military command in Japan to strengthen operational planning and exercises between the nations. The allies want to bolster their security ties to respond to what they view as a growing threat from China, which requires their militaries to co-operate and plan more seamlessly, particularly in a crisis such as a Taiwan conflict. https://archive.ph/0DFzF

U.S. President Joe Biden has reiterated his stance on Taiwan, suggesting a potential military response if China attempts to alter the status quo by force. In an interview with Time magazine, Biden emphasized that while the U.S. does not endorse #Taiwanese independence, it remains committed to defending the island in the face of unilateral Chinese aggression. Biden highlighted a "distinction between deploying on the ground, air power and naval power," indicating that the nature of the U.S. response would depend on specific circumstances. He confirmed ongoing consultations with regional allies, such as Japan and the #Philippines, about the situation. The U.S. has reinforced its alliances in Asia under Biden, particularly with #Japan and the #Philippines, who have provided strategic military base access. Read more at: https://lnkd.in/dJf9xQ6f #China #US #Biden #Taiwan #Japan #Philipines #Biden #AdialaJail #SaudiArabia #Lebanon #PAKvsUSA #Hezbollah #AsianPolitico

Lai Ching-te was inaugurated as Taiwan's new president, prompting significant military drills by Beijing around the island three days later.  Lai, known for his pro-independence stance and affiliation with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), was Beijing's least favored candidate. Despite prior aggressive rhetoric, China's response post-election has been relatively measured. While Beijing's initial response to Lai's presidency has been restrained, the underlying distrust and strategic considerations suggest that cross-Strait tensions are poised to increase, albeit within a managed framework to avoid war Read more: https://hubs.la/Q02Fy3t70 #Taiwan #Beijing #China #MaritimeSecurity

China prepares to invade Taiwan. The war in the gray zone has intensified to exhaust Taiwan. It will try to quickly take over the island to avoid external intervention, the defense report says #China has increased gray-zone tactics against #Taiwan, according to a Ministry of National Defense (#MND) report on Thursday (March 7). The ministry said that during a conflict, China would try to #invade Taiwan quickly to prevent outside forces like the #US from intervening. China has a long tradition of starting its wars with surprise attacks, as American forces discovered in #Korea in 1950 and the #Vietnamese in 1979. Chinese military doctrine favors rapid, overwhelming assaults. #ExtremaRatio https://lnkd.in/dWTyATqw

Sunday Read. Global Security Review - Fortifying America’s Pacific Presence: Revitalizing Tinian Island’s Airfield. Tinian’s strategic value extends beyond its physical attributes. It also plays a role in strengthening alliances and partnerships with regional allies, such as Japan and South Korea, by demonstrating American commitment to regional security and stability. The strategic value of establishing an airfield on Tinian outweighs the challenges, given its importance for projecting American military power and political influence in the Pacific region. #powerprojection #NuclearDeterrence #GlobalSecurity #PacificTheater https://ow.ly/KcTF50RsAEJ

Most debates about Chinese coercion of Taiwan focus on invasion (whether Beijing has a timeline, whether it can be deterred, or whether it could succeed), and how an international coalition including the United States and Europe might respond. But China’s coercive toolkit is vast and includes both kinetic and non-kinetic measures that fall well short of these dire scenarios. Carnegie’s Evan A. Feigenbaum and Isaac B. Kardon will be joined by Gudrun Wacker and Enoch Wu to discuss whether and how Americans and Europeans can better understand and coordinate responses to Beijing’s tools and tactics designed to coerce Taiwan short of using military force. #TSIEvents #TSIWeekly20240303 #TSITaiwanFP #TSIUSTaiwan #TSIUSPolicy #TSIGrayZone