Institute for National Strategic Studies’ Post

🇨🇳 |🇷🇺 NEW RESEARCH | In the journal Security Studies, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro analyzes the depth and breadth of the military alignment between China and Russia and considers how it could potentially reshape the global security landscape. https://lnkd.in/e8fGxt6W Using a novel framework for analyzing great power alignment, Mastro shows that, while the Sino-Russian military cooperation is significant and trending towards an even more extensive alignment, it is geared towards enhancing China's ability to counter the United States in Asia. Yet in the case of great power alignment, she notes, even indirect mutual support can significantly impact the balance of power. Delve further into Mastro's research and its implications for U.S. defense planning > https://lnkd.in/e8fGxt6W #chinarussiarelations #sinorussian #militaryalignment #greatpowercompetition #asiapacific

📑 New research paper: Assessing Russian plans for military regeneration: Modernization and reconstitution challenges for Moscow’s war machine Authors: ▪ Mathieu Boulègue, Consulting Fellow, Chatham House Russia and Eurasia Programme ▪ Professor Justin Bronk, Senior Research Fellow for Airpower and Technology, Royal United Services Institute ▪ Karolina Hird, Russia Deputy Team Lead and Evans Hanson Fellow, Institute for the Study of War ▪ Dr Jaclyn Kerr, Senior Research Fellow for Defense and Technology Futures, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University ▪ Rob Lee, Senior Fellow, Eurasia Program, Foreign Policy Research Institute ▪ Dr Michael B. Petersen, Founding director, Russia Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College This paper assesses the challenges Russia faces in upgrading each of the main armed services, and in reforming or developing its command structures, ‘asymmetric’ enablers and military-industrial complex accordingly. Understanding Russian priorities and progress on military regeneration is vital if Western policymakers are to determine in which domains and sectors Russia will continue to be a credible military threat to Ukraine and other countries. https://lnkd.in/edjEHrtg

Interesting view of the lessons we should be learning from Ukraine. Spoiler alert: They are not the lessons we appear to be taking from the conflict. It's as if the key takeaways in the West are: 1) We need more tanks; and 2) Drones are a thing. I personally agree with the premise of the article that asymmetric or irregular warfare is the future, and by applying this lesson from not only Ukraine, but Afghanistan and Iraq as well, Europe can be better prepared for what the Russians likely have in store for them.

Seventy-five years ago, in the aftermath of the most devastating conflict in human #history, the nations of #Europe and North America forged an alliance that would shape the future of the world. NATO - The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, emerged as a bastion of freedom, a shield 🛡️ against tyranny, and a beacon of hope for a united community. After the fall of the #SovietUnion, #Poland 🇵🇱 and other countries of Central and Eastern Europe (#CEE) joined #NATO, bringing long-awaited sovereignty, security, and prosperity, casting away the shadows of occupation and oppression. The alliance became a symbol of resilience and unity, providing a platform for these nations to rebuild and chart their own destinies. The World Affairs Council of Miami is honored to contribute to the platform's development by becoming a institutional partner for the #NATOYouthSummit edition in #Miami. This summit brings together young leaders from around the world, providing a forum to discuss and address global challenges, fostering a sense of collaboration and understanding. The conflict in #Ukraine 🇺🇦 serves as a stark reminder of NATO's enduring relevance. The alliance's unwavering support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity underscores its commitment to upholding the international order and deterring aggression. As we confront new challenges, from cyber warfare to disinformation campaigns, NATO's values of freedom, democracy, and the rule of law remain steadfast. The alliance's resilience in the face of adversity inspires us to redouble our efforts to build a world where these values are not just protected but cherished. As we commemorate NATO's past achievements and look to the future, let us do so with a renewed sense of purpose and determination. Let us stand together, as one alliance, united in our commitment to peace, security, and prosperity for all. Join us online at the NATO Youth Summit and be a part of shaping this future. Aaron Rosen Paul Griebel Nathan Haselton Nancy Jackson, MPA Laura Dominguez Darina Popova Kristina Rosales Kostrukova Moises I. Benhabib Nick Kallergis Mikele Mancuso Aliana Canizares The Aspen Institute Aspen Institute Romania 🇷🇴 NATO

💡 How can you future-proof a 75-year-old alliance? While world leaders gathered in #WashingtonDC to celebrate #NATO's long history, we looked towards its future. At our Transatlantic Defense Roundtable, experts and decision-makers discussed concrete steps to ensure NATO's flourishing for the next 75 years. Some of the ideas: 🔹 Co-building defense industrial bases 🔹 Spending allocated money more effectively 🔹 Strengthening the political will to help #Ukraine win the war Opinions were divided on how much of the burden #Europe should share, especially regarding securing the Indo-Pacific. Whether you think NATO is "brain-dead" or alive and kicking — our Roundtable participants agreed that we should not take the Alliance for granted & keep improving it.

Very interesting. "European countries sit at a historical turning point, one that potentially affects their long-term national survival. The existential-level shock that many suggest is a necessary condition for groundbreaking changes has been delivered to them by the Russian attack on Ukraine. All of them responded with more and faster investment in their national defense. Unfortunately, too many have been pursuing misguided responses to this shock and continue investing in poorly suited and even meaningless capabilities based on the continued illusions about the conduct of conventional war. Observations from the war in Ukraine point toward a need for a complete paradigm shift. A theory of war that works for one country and in one time may prove to be wholly inapplicable to other countries in a different time. When that happens, leaders must be prepared to modify or even abandon that theory of war. European countries should completely redesign their national defense approaches based on the realities of the twenty-first-century battlefield. Failing to do so may force them to pay the ultimate price in the event of Russian aggression." Dr. Sandor Fabian is a former Hungarian Special Forces lieutenant colonel with twenty years of military experience. He was previously an MWI nonresident fellow and is the author of the book Irregular Warfare: The Future Military Strategy for Small States.

Here is my latest Policy Outlook on how the upcoming Trump administration could influence the future of multilateralism, with a particular focus on NATO. Special thanks to Aylin Unver Noi, Selver Sahin, Umberto Profazio, and Enes Bayraklı for their insightful comments that enriched my work. ✍🏻 According to a new report by the Financial Times, Trump is to request greater defense spending from European allies in his new term, with figures as high as 5%. Additionally, he frequently uses the rhetoric of potentially withdrawing the U.S. from NATO as a strategic tool. 🔗 https://lnkd.in/dyix7xNM

My comments on the appointment of Belousov as a new defence minister and the implications for the war in Ukraine for War on the Rocks: "The Kremlin understands that in order to win an economic war with the West, it must switch to a war economy. Ultimately, a war of attrition is about mobilizing resources and managing them efficiently. While Russia's economy was already firmly on a war footing in 2023, the appointment of Andrey Belousov, an economist and technocrat loyal to Vladimir Putin, underlines the Kremlin's commitment to a protracted war and highlights how closely the economic and military spheres are entangled in Russia. Belousov will be tasked with streamlining spending, enhancing logistics, curbing corruption in the military, and sourcing shortfalls from countries “friendly” to Russia. Against this background, Belousov's trip to Beijing was of particular importance — that is, to obtain China's support, both in economic and military terms." https://lnkd.in/e9iefFd2

Developments in the Russo-Ukrainian War Volodymyr Solovian (UCMC) and Tor Bukkvoll (Norwegian Defense Research Establishment), international security and defence experts, gave a seminar titled “Recent developments in the war: Different perspectives and prospects” Military and political aspects of the developments in the Russio-Ukraine war, including assessments of both the Ukrainian and Russian sides, were the topic of discussion. *Event organized by the Norwegian Network for Research on Ukraine (UKRAINETT) https://lnkd.in/eP5hWWUG

#US Secretary of the #AirForce #Kendall says: #China is now a threat and the #UnitedStates must prepare for #conflict. On September 16, U.S. Secretary of the Air Force #FrankKendall delivered a speech at the U.S. Air and Space Forces Association and mentioned the growing threat from China to the "#IndoPacificregion." He said that "China's threat to regional security is not in the future, but now." "For 15 years I have paid a lot of attention to the development of the (Chinese) military. China is not a threat in the future, China is a threat today." He stressed that China continues to invest heavily in specialized capabilities, combat concepts and organizations designed to defeat the ability of the #UnitedStates and its allies to project power in the Western Pacific, including #weapons that target land and sea assets such as U.S. air bases and aircraft carriers. "In addition, China continues to expand its #nuclearforces and combat capabilities in cyberspace. We can expect all these trends to continue." Kendall said he saw this when he visited the "Indo-Pacific region" in the past 15 years ago. Other countries are concerned, or even warned, about China's growing power and intentions. He said one example is that the People's Liberation Army #PLA is conducting larger-scale and more complex exercises to "#attackTaiwan" and "blockade Taiwan." "I'm not saying that war in the Pacific is imminent or inevitable. No," Kendall continued, "but I am saying that the probability is increasing and will continue to increase." During the speech, Kendall stressed that the United States must prepare for potential future #conflicts, and then listed several ways in which the Air Force and Space Force are going through a plan to achieve operational urgency. "To prevent conflict, we must be prepared; to win in conflict, we must be prepared." #ExtremaRatio