📌 A surprise podium finish emerged from the French General Elections, with a parliament dominated by the left coalition, followed by the presidential majority and, in third place, the far-right Rassemblement National, which the polls had predicted to be the relative majority. Will the so-far muted reaction of the markets persist over time? Will the new government manage to submit a budget to the parliament by October 1st? What are the forecasts for the French economy? The repercussions for Europe? 💡 Gain insights from Hadrien Camatte, Thibaut Cuillière, Nordine Naam, Emilie Tetard and Théophile Legrand from Natixis CIB Research : https://lnkd.in/eTT3AsYW
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Dozen odd elections were scheduled for 2024. Polls in major economies are over and it's time to witness policy changes and see how these poll outcomes will impact your business. Few more notable elections are left. Cost of living, green transition, inflation, oil, and more will shape debates and future policy. #polls #elections #policy #inflation #IRA Here is a handy primer
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New data! 📢 The European Parliament still fails to reflect the diverse EU population it's called to represent. Ahead of the #EUelections2024, we have launched a new #FactSheet to share our latest findings on the representation gaps and diversity trends within the EU's only directly elected body. These EU elections, use your vote for the change you want to see. #EuropeForAll. ✊🏽 ⏩ Check out all the data: https://lnkd.in/gfBFUrt4 stay tuned for more deep dives into the representation gaps!
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Spotlight: UK and France Elections While both the #UK and #France experienced leftward ideological shifts in elections this past week, the new government in London will be more stable and coherent than in Paris. As a result, policy change in the UK will be substantial as Labour overhauls Tory policies, though constrained by fiscal challenges. By contrast, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble and the leftist NPF – which succeeded in keeping the far-right RN from power – will likely fail to form a governing majority, increasing the fiscal risks of policymaking. Relatedly, rising Political Risk is forecast to decline sooner in the UK than in France, led by Governance Risk. Please visit www.geoquant.com or schedule a demo info@geoquant.com to learn more. #PoliticalRisk #Elections #Geopolitics
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Our recent publication "#Macron Revolutionises and Rejuvenates The Government Ahead of the European Elections" by Prof. Brunello Rosa and Shahed Hassanaly is available on Rosa Roubini Associates' website. In this paper, we discuss: 1. The recent reshuffle in #France’s government and the motivations behind it; 2. The young personality of the new prime minister and his background; 3. The composition of the new government – confirmations and new arrivals; 4. The rise of Jordan #Bardella at the helm of the Rassémblement National; and 5. The latest polls ahead of the #EU elections in June. Read it here: https://lnkd.in/gTwWJb-2
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With the results of the French parliamentary elections due shortly, it appears that the far right will not secure an absolute majority. This outcome is likely to lead to a significant political deadlock, leaving President #Macron unable to appoint a new Prime Minister or dissolve the parliament for a year. Such a constitutional impasse signals looming uncertainty and instability for France, the EU's second-largest #economy, and could exert considerable pressure on the European Union and the #euro.
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A new Citi Research report explores two scenarios for France's elections: a deadlocked parliament and an outright victory for the far right. Either could disrupt not only France's fiscal performance but also Europe's ability to accelerate its transformation at a time of rapid geopolitical and economic change. https://on.citi/3XGG5e4
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𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞: “𝐈𝐭 𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐝𝐢𝐞.” The upcoming European elections have been the subject of much commentary and prediction. Many forecasts expect gains for right-wing parties, while centrist parties are expected to lose seats. But will the Right truly become more influential? Who will ultimately hold power in the European Parliament? To understand the context of these #elections, our outlook provides an analysis of the #economic and #geopolitical challenges Europe currently faces. Building on this foundation, we assess the potential impact of several possible election outcomes on the distribution of power in the EP. Additionally, our briefing includes an overview of the candidates and key issues for German parties and European political groups. Read our full analysis attached to this post! #EuropeanElections #Geopolitics #Economics #Outlook #EuropeanUnion #EU #EuropeanParliament
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⏰ In just 25 days, European citizens will head to the polls for the European parliamentary elections. 🇪🇺 As this crucial date approaches, we can't emphasise enough how important it is to cast your vote. 🗣 Why does this matter for accountants? Accountancy Europe's President, Mark Vaessen, highlights a key point: 80% of the legislation affecting accountants in Europe is determined at the European level. 🗓 Remember to mark your calendar for the European elections, taking place from June 6 to 9. #EUelections #Democracy #Sustainability #ShapeEU2024 #TogetherForDemocracy #VoteEurope2024 #EUelections2024 #UseYourVote Eleni Kanelli, Chara Georgiou, Johan Barros, Olivier Boutellis, Nederlandse Beroepsorganisatie van Accountants (NBA), KPMG Nederland, European Parliament
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I am delighted to share our latest FREE REPORT, which delves into the politicisation of financial regulation and considers what regulatory developments might be on the horizon as political changes approach. With recent election fever in the UK, France, and the US later this year, coming so soon after the elections in the Russian Federation, India, and South Africa, we hope it helps bring some insights and clarity. https://lnkd.in/dbzsajWB #elections #politics #finance #financialservices
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In view of the forthcoming elections for the European Parliament in June 2024 as well as a new European Commission taking office on 1 November 2024, the EFR has stepped up efforts gathering the extensive insight and expertise of Member organisations to contribute to the important debate on what the next legislative cycle should focus on. We have published two Papers and sent them to key stakeholders. For Europe to remain a global player and achieve all transitions, a strong and competitive European financial sector is essential. This objective should be included in the next EC mandate by making competitiveness a central factor in its rule making process, by truly creating deeper EU capital markets, by ensuring that the regulatory framework supports the ability of EU market participants to deploy their activities abroad and by creating more funding flexibility.
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