In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the win margin is 2.5% or less in 58 seats. Of them, in 23 seats, the win margin is at best 1%. This margin is the difference between the vote shares secured by the winner and the runner-up in a seat. It can be expressed both as percentage of votes and by the absolute number of votes.
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Table 1 | The table showsthe number of seats won with a margin of 1% or less, 1% to 2.5%, and so on.
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In the 35 seats where the win margin is between 1% and 2.5% and the 23 seats where the race is even tighter, with a win margin of 1% or less, fortunes could also change quickly.
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Table 2 | The table shows the alliance-wise split of who won in the seats where vote margins are low
Among the seats where the win margin is 2.5% or lower, the NDA won in 12 seats, higher than the 10 seats, in which the INDIA alliance won.
And among the seats where the win margin is 2.5% to 5%, the NDA won in 10 seats, lower than the 20 seats in which the INDIA alliance won.
Put together, the NDA has won in 28 seats where the margin is less than 2.5%, while the INDIA has won in 30 such low vote margin.
Analyses of the margins of victory are better served by the percentage of votes than by the absolute number, even if the win margins by the absolute number of votes can help picture the closeness of a contest at a glance.
Table 3 | The table shows the win margins in terms of the absolute number of votes.
In 2 seats, the candidates who won are ahead of the respective runners-up by a wafer-thin margin of fewer than 1,000 votes. In 3 seats, the candidates have won by 1,000-2,500 votes and in 12 seats, the lead was between 2,500 and 5,000 votes.
Table 4A | The table shows an alliance-wise split in the 23 seats where the win margin is lower than 1%.
Table 4B | The table shows an alliance-wise split in the 35 seats where the win margin is in the range of 1-2.5%.
