Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA)

The University of KwaZulu-Natal is hosting the 3rd International Biennial Macroeconomics Symposium. This year's Conference theme is Economic Recovery Under Uncertainty: The Role of Fiscal and Monetary Policy. ERSA's Chief Editor and Research Fellow Guangling Liu, and ERSA's Research Fellow Nicola Viegi, will be delivering the keynote address. Date: 30 - 31 October Venue: The Riverside Hotel, Durban North Deadline for submissions: 15 September 2024 To learn more and submit your research, see the comments section, below.

If you haven't yet, register for our upcoming Online Public Lecture with Prof Dercon, titled “South Africa’s Gamble on Economic Development and Inclusion, then and now”, and organised by Economic Research Southern Africa in collaboration with the Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford (CSAE) and the University of Pretoria. Professor Stefan Dercon is the author of “Gambling on Development: how some countries win and others lose“, where he explores how the elite class influences the development trajectory of developing countries. He is a distinguished economist with extensive experience doing research and advising governments in Africa on economic matters. To learn more and register, see the comments section, below.

A big thank you to everyone who submitted their ideas to the inaugural PSG #ThinkBigSA Competition on Inclusive Economic Growth in South Africa in partnership with PSG Financial Services. It has been very inspiring reading all of these BIG ideas! We do not envy our judges: Philippe Burger, William M. Gumede, Mamokete Lijane, CFA, Gracelin Baskaran, PhD and Michael Sachs as they really get deep into the submissions to rank them according to the competition's specs. We will keep you posted!

Attention all economics students.

New ERSA Working Paper: Financial Inclusion Effects of Engaging with the Fintech Ecosystem, Odongo Kodongo, Wits Business School See links to full paper in comments. "we test the implications of Arner et al.'s (2020) contention that the real opportunity afforded by fintech is that it develops an “infrastructure for a digital financial ecosystem that underpins financial inclusion.” Attention all policymakers and researchers working on financial inclusion in Africa. This newly published ERSA working paper examines how individual engagement with the fintech ecosystem impacts the usage of traditional financial products in Kenya. It bring forward some very interesting policy considerations. Cenfri The Banking Association South Africa FSCA South Africa Genesis Analytics CGAP Boston Consulting Group (BCG) DNA Economics Deloitte Mastercard Foundation [Please tag other organisations that will be interested in this research]

An important event that promises to be very interesting with insights from interesting people. ERSA's Fouché Venter and Bradley Kent are looking forward to being there.

New Policy Brief Alert: Getting South Africa's Exports Back on Track Last week, we shared the full Policy Paper—today, we're excited to bring you the Policy Brief. In this concise summary, Lawrence Edward, Jing Chien (University of Cape Town), and Matthew Stern (DNA Economics) distill their key analysis and findings. A crucial takeaway from the brief emphasises the need for more trade research: "These [SA's] export trends pose a significant challenge to achieving the country’s wider development objectives. South Africa will not be able to raise economic growth, fast enough, to reverse rising levels of unemployment and inequality through domestic consumption or by expanding into the surrounding region. Rather, renewed efforts are needed to raise the competitiveness of South African firms, globally, and to shift the country back onto an export-led growth path. This will require an objective review of existing plans, programmes and constraints; and where appropriate, the development of new initiatives and accompanying reforms." Link to the brief in first comment.

This is the last week to submit your Big Idea to the inaugural PSG #ThinkBigSA Competition on Inclusive Economic Growth in South Africa, in partnership with PSG Financial Services. The submissions have been coming in fast and our judges Philippe Burger, William M. Gumede, Mamokete Lijane, CFA, Gracelin Baskaran, PhD and Michael Sachs are looking forward to reading through them all. For more details on the competition and its prizes, or to submit your ideas, please see the link in the comments below.

NEW WORKING PAPER ALERT See 1st comment for the link to the full paper. Nicola Viegi, Giovanni Ricco, and Ekaterina Pirozhkova present a state-of-the-art analysis on the transmission of conventional monetary policy, forward guidance, term premia, country risk, and information shocks. Key Findings: 1. Conventional Monetary Policy Effects: While monetary policy tightenings generate recessionary impacts, their predictability is lower in emerging markets like South Africa due to higher economic volatility compared to advanced economies. 2. Response to Shocks: Conventional monetary policy in South Africa often reacts to shocks similar to supply shocks, where prices and output move in opposite directions. This differs from advanced economies, where information effects typically signal demand shocks. 3. Impact of Policy Communication: Policy communication effectively guides market expectations and has lasting macroeconomic effects, even within the context of an emerging market. 4. Monetary Policy's Main Channel: In South Africa, monetary policy primarily operates by modulating perceived risks to the country's macroeconomic stability, either by responding to large external shocks or by ensuring sound macroeconomic policy amidst internal challenges. #monetarypolicy #macroeconomics #fiscalandmonetarypolicyresearchprogramme #ERSAWPS

🌍 Are you a trade economist passionate about the pressing issues in South African trade and industrial policy? Lawrence Edwards and Jing Chien from PRISM (University of Cape Town) and Matthew Stern from DNA Economics have crafted a comprehensive research paper for The South Africa - UK International Economic Partnership (IEP). This extensive report offers a deep dive into South Africa's trade and industrial policy performance. 📚 Considering a PhD in Trade? Want your research to make a real impact? This report is a goldmine. It not only explores South Africa's trade dynamics over the past 30 years but also highlights emerging challenges that demand responsive trade policies and identifies crucial research gaps. For those looking to contribute to the future of South African trade policy, this paper is filled with potential research questions that need the expertise of researchers in South Africa. 🔗 Check the comments for the link to the research paper and more on the IEP.