Run to the sound of guns.
Step inside the tension. Jump where the stakes are highest.
When uncertainty looms, when a problem refuses to unravel, the instinct is to sidestep, to hedge, to wait, to hide. Paul Saffo pushed against that instinct when we laid before him the mountain we were working to shake.
Real change happens inside the turbulence, not around it. We run to the sound of guns.
Now what?
We pay attention.
Because the solution is often the opposite of what we expect.
Paul illustrated this notion with survivorship bias in WWII’s planes. Military analysts wanted to reinforce bullet-riddled sections, but Abraham Wald pointed out the flaw: those planes survived. The real vulnerabilities lay in the untouched areas, where hits had been fatal.
This is true for ideas. It is true for technology.
We spoke about the Amish to illustrate a culture of deliberate adoption through experimentation. They watch. They test. They choose what serves rather than what disrupts. A stark contrast to industries treating newness as its own justification. Here, power lies in discernment. In choosing what to adopt, what to adapt, and what to leave untouched.
And then we dive deep.
We dive deep in conversations, in research.
We dive deep in technology, in action.
Paul explained how technology first democratizes power, then concentrates it again into fewer hands, stronger controls. The question is never just what can it do? but who does it enable? AI is approaching its inflection point, and the pattern is repeating. How actively are we shaping its outcomes?
We dive deep in narratives, in networks.
“Lasting change is rarely loud.” It spreads sideways - through networks, through well-told, deeply resonant stories. To scale change is to go deep into narratives, to pull from the roots of our history, to find the myths that carry truth beneath the surface.
We run to the sound of guns. So that we, as a society, as businesses, decide not just how to evolve, but on what terms.
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It took me months to digest the conversation we had with Paul Saffo in Dubai last November. I still keep going back to my notes, certain I might never hold them fully.
Twenty minutes stretched into two hours. The pertinent quirkiness of his metaphors. The precise unraveling of his questions. The unassuming gravity of his approach.
The day before, Cat Zuzarte Tully had given us a piece of advice that would prove crucial: “This is a big event, with a lot of fascinating people. You will not be able to do it all. JOMO must trump FOMO.”
She was right. Embracing the joy of missing out, choosing to be fully somewhere rather than lightly everywhere, led to a conversation I am still untangling.
I left the conversation a little fanstruck, with a sense of fire and a good shake.
With deep gratitude to Paul, Cat, Katie, Next Generation Foresight Practitioners, and School of International Futures (SOIF), and to the spaces that allow reflection, connection, and wonder to thrive.
